Predictions Please - PA Primary

She. Cannot. Catch. Him. Especially after he kicks her ass in Oregon and North Carolina. Indiana's still a tossup.

 

I'll predict Obama by 2% just to look like a genius if it happens. It's the same strategy I took in picking the Giants over the Patriots.

In this scenario, David Tyree is the large group of youth/college voters who are underrepresented in the polling.

 

Only if you model it.

 

These four words need to be repeated ad nauseum until people actually get it. The choices are to nominate the guy bringing in a flood of new voters or overturn the will of the voters, alienate a whole new generation of Democrats and nominate the person who finished second.

The rest of this is just noise.

 

Are you going to hold the ballot with your head?

 

Which voting block is Bill Belichick?

 

Hillary by a nose.

 

Fenian -- and even if she wins ALL TEN OF THE PRIMARIES LEFT (which she won't) -- She still will trail unless she wins by like 65-35 margins -- so what is your point?

 

My point is he can't go into the convention on an seven-primary losing streak, including all the large industrial states, and expect to be treated like he wrapped this thing up in February. It's going to make people at the convention very nervous.

 

He's not going to do that and you know it.

And again -- outside of Ohio -- which is not a given -- please explain to me which state he is in danger of losing in November that Hillary would win.

That is the bottom line, the rest if just a bunch of Slick Willy bullshit.

 

I'm not trying to put words in Fenian's mouth but I think he's saying that perception is reality. If Clinton manages to go on a bit of a primary win streak she's going to be perceived as being more electable going into the convention. Even if she's not.

 

And if, correctly, you're going to argue that NY, California, and Pennsylvania don't matter because they're going to go for any Democrat, then you have to argue that Wyoming, SC, Nevada etc. don't count the other way because there's no way Obama wins them in the fall.