Posnanski: Why do so many assume Tiger Woods will return to form one day?

What is it with all this "working out" analysis.

It's golf.

Where lazy, chain-smoking, M&M-eating degenerates can win majors. And where 58- and 59-year-olds can compete for major titles.

And if the above can happen, it's pretty foolish to discount Tiger's chances until the day we see him in a wheelchair.

 

Exactly which "lazy" major championship winner are you referring to?

 

All good points, gnut and STG. One interesting thing Pos wrote in a previous article about Woods that touches on your points is this idea (incorrect, he theorized) that all the doubters were doing Tiger Woods a favor, and that he would be fueled by those doubts.

Woods, at his best, was one of the most dominate front runners any sport has ever seen. When he was really good, he fed off belief, not doubt.

That's why, as you both said, major win No. 15 is so important. He needs to believe again. For all his arrogance, his steely-eyed intensity, I think he fed off of being the favorite. I don't think he's ever felt comfortable in another role.

Does anyone think Watson really believed he was going to win that Open? I don't. I think he hoped, which is a very different mentality.

 

The lazy, chain-smoking M&M eating degenerate of whom you speak (Daly) last won a tournament in 2005 and last won a major in 1995. He's gone 93 starts without a top-10 and with only one top-25. He's missed almost 60 percent of his cuts since losing to Tiger in a playoff in San Francisco at the end of 2005. Bad example.

 

Interesting thing about golf injuries. I had a sports physician who is an avid golfer who told me that knees are going to replace backs as the most prevalent golf injury. Reason: modern equipment and balls result in straighter hits as much as they do distance. Players are able to lash at the ball almost as hard as they can and still get it in the fairway. Remember the old Sam Snead tip? "Swing to about 75 or 80 percent of your power." That was with persimmon drivers where you couldn't go all out or the ball would leave the planet. Now they can go all-out but that's increasing the torque on their knees. Look at two of the longest hitters of the past 10 years or so: Tiger and Vijay. Both have had serious knee problems.

 

This is an excellent point, Hondo.

Honestly, this hasn't been written or talked about enough, but I think the real reason why Tiger is undergoing yet another swing change is not performance-related; it's because he has to find a swing that he can repeat and still hit the ball long enough to play the PGA Tour's super-sized layouts while decreasing the torque on his bad knee.

He's always had amazing hip and leg drive in his swing -- his power was one of the reasons why he could hack the ball out of penal rough and still get the ball on or near greens mere mortals never would've even attempted to approach. Not any more, and it's not going to get any better as he approaches 40. Trust me, I know.

Baseball has plenty of examples of pitchers who successfully made the transition from relying solely on power to getting hitters out with guile, location and changing speeds. If Tiger's newest new swing eventually becomes capable of consistently finding fairways and greens in regulation, I'm fairly confident he can win enough putting contests to add five more majors before he retires.

 

I go round and round on whether Tiger will win five more; I wouldn't bet either way, but I'm leaning no. Why? The accumulation of negatives:

Lost/cost himself a spouse. (Spousal support is damned important, even moreso if you have had it and lost it.)
The emotional turmoil of having screwed up his own life.
The physical problems, one of which (the knee) has repeated itself.
The constantly changing swing. Not the tinkering which all golfers good and bad experience, but major changes, repeatedly.

On the other hand, the guy has been so incredibly good, especially in his short game, that it's difficult to count him out. If he wins no more majors, I will be truly surprised.

Isn't there general agreement that Tiger has been his own worst enemy? A fascinating story. If he redeems himself, personally as well as in golf, that will be epic stuff.

 

I can buy # 3 and 4 and maybe even #2. As to #1, that would require the belief that Tiger Woods ever cared about anyone or anything besides himself, so I can't see that being a big deal.

 

Tiger's the one who apparently hasn't realized that he didn't win 14 majors because he could drive the ball 330. He won them because he was the best clutch putter in the world and got up and down from everywhere.
He could win five majors by becoming Fred Funk off the tee if he wanted.

 

Spot on. Every time I see Tiger's swing in slow motion and I watch him post up on that left knee in his follow through -- knowing he's already had multiple surgeries on it -- I just cringe. He holds nothing back, especially with the driver, despite having a screwed up knee. Making the same violent swings and continuing to post up on that knee the way he does after surgery, I just can't imagine him staying healthy for too long before it goes out again on him. He might make it through the next couple years but that old knee just isn't going to hold up to the strain he puts on it. I thought it was interesting in his press conference last week when he said it was "probably stupid" of him to play in the '08 Open on that knee. It gave him one of his most incredible victories but might have shaved off a few seasons from his career.

I think it's an ego thing for him. His 75% swing is plenty long enough to handle those 7,500 yard tracks and I think he knows that. But he has grown accustomed to having a reputation for being such a long hitter and now he has been de-throned by several guys. He needs to put his ego aside, tone it down a notch with the driver and hit "only" a 9-iron into a 480 yard par 4 instead of a sand wedge.

 

A lot of good posts here.

He proved at the British Open a few years ago he could hit 6 iron into greens and still win. Seems like just foolish pride to contine to spray the driver instaed.

 

Even a totally selfish bastard would miss not having someone around who has supported him in any number of ways. These relationships are sometimes about someone giving and someone taking. When you lose something good, it leaves a gap which not everyone is lucky enough to fill.