Philly Fed prez: Recovery to start in second half of '09

When the unemployment rate starts falling instead of rising, when companies stop laying off 10,000 at a time, then you start looking forward to better times.

If Obama can create 2,000,000 jobs, that will be a very good starting point.

 

I certainly believe that you could be right.

Most believe it will be at the end of this year.

 

Dow up 170 - looks like we're back

 

Any "up" day in the past 13 months in the stock market has been strictly due to news of government socializing the losses.

Look it up.

 

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h1/show

A little light reading.

 

If there is one thing I have learned from this financial mess, it's that 95 percent of these so-called experts don't know squat about the economy.

 

Any chance you could link something to back that up?

 

If the unemployed get no significant work to support their families (or even themselves) in a few months, there will be another round of massive home foreclosures.

 

http://www.kpmg.com/Global/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesAndPublications/Pages/Global-deal-activity-hit-bottom-Q2-Q3.aspx

http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/housing_slump_wont_recover_until_late_2009_or_2010_economists_say/C35/L35/

I get that there are also plenty of poindexters predicting dire straits until well into 2011.

 

You may need to re-read your second piece, Simon, you know the one that states: “We’re not out of this, by any stretch of the imagination; 2009 is going to be a bad year, not deeply negative, but a little bit negative. We’re not going to come out of this until the first quarter of 2010”, late 09 was addressed in that piece only as the absolute earliest possible bottom.

But the point is those one or two opinions hardly show what "most" are thinking. You can cite just as many more pessimistic pieces. Nobody knows how long this thing is gonna go, and there's so many views on that I don't know how anyone can say theirs is the majority. Personally I can't see the pain subsiding this year, there's just way too much crap than needs cleaned first.

 

Simon - you may want to check with the National Association of Realtors as well. There's never been a better time to buy or sell a house.

And your first link from KPMG is strictly on M&A activity, not the country's economic recovery.

 

How can this be the best time ever to both buy and sell a house?