Oscar winners leaked

EW's Oscar preview survey has Adams with only 6% of the vote. Although they do call it the most wide open race.

Nate Silver calls the race for Taraji P. Henson. EW gives her a 9% chance. She's 4/1 on my site.

Slate.com, in anti-Silver pose (ironic as Slate is the anti-everything site, and Silver is anti-conventional wisdom), says it will be Penelope Cruz.

 

Cruz is the favorite.

 

Even more ironic -- the anti-site goes anti on the anti-guy to pick the favorite.

 

Anne Hathaway was supposed to win Best Actress if you believed the leaked Golden Globes results. Turned out not to be true, of course.

 

I'd still be shocked if the Stuffy Establishment gave the Oscar to Rourke.

Though if it comes down to him vs. Penn, who has already won a Best Actor Oscar and is playing a gay dude in this one, I imagine the S.E. would go for Rourke.

 

My issue with Rourke is that he was essentially playing himself. He was great at it, but why wouldn't he be?

Penn should walk away with it, but the fact that he's already won once won't help him and neither will Rourke's amazing comeback story.

 

The time to pound Slummaire was when you could put down 11 to clear 8, two months ago.

 

I disagree Rourke played himself. He had to bulk up considerably to play the part and found layers in the character few could have otherwise. I found his performance to be far more moving and absorbing, regardless of its ease.

 

I'm in a very competitive Oscar pool, and am woefully underprepared this year. Maybe I'll just submit this list and hope it turns out to be legit.

 

http://nymag.com/movies/features/54335/

Go with what this guy says.