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Official SJ.com Elections Pickem WITH RESULTS

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by PopeDirkBenedict, Nov 5, 2006.

  1. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    Might as well do this for politics, since most of us seem to love arguing about it so much. I don't know how popular this will be, although I'm pretty sure Fenian and Ben Hecht will get sucked in.

    For the following races, you must predict a winner and a percentage margin of victory (i.e. you think A will beat B 52-48, then you predict A by 4 points). The winner will be the person with the fewest percentage points off (i.e. if B wins by 3 and you predicted A by 4, you are off by 7). To put extra emphasis on picking winners, there is a 5 point penalty for picking the wrong guy. Percentages will be rounded up/down to the nearest whole number (52.4 becomes 52...52.5 becomes 53). And even if a race is decided by a single vote, there is a minimum 1 point percentage. Some questions will ask how many seats a party will hold. If you say the GOP will hold 52 Senate seats and they hold 45, you get 7 points added to your score.

    Winner gets bragging rights and can put this in their sig. I will close entries at 1:15 p.m. EST on Tuesday

    Just to make things easier, the Dem is listed first in every race. *=Incumbent

    U.S. Senate:
    Arizona: Jim Pedersen vs. Jon Kyl*
    Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs. Alan Schlesinger vs. Joe Lieberman*
    Maryland: Ben Cardin vs. Michael Steele
    Michigan: Debbie Stabenow* vs. Michael Bouchard
    Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent*
    Montana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns*
    New Jersey: Bob Menendez* vs. Tom Kean
    Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs. Rick Santorum*
    Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chaffee*
    Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker
    Virginia: Jim Webb vs. George Allen*

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress:

    U.S. House
    I picked 10 races that intrigued me
    AZ-05: Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth*
    CT-04: Diane Farrell vs. Chris Shays*
    FL-16: Tim Mahoney vs. Mark Foley/Joe Negron (Foley is on the ballot, but all votes for him go to Negron)
    IN-08: Brad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler*
    IN-09: Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel*
    IA-02: Jim Loebsack vs. Jim Leach*
    NC-11: Heath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor*
    NM-01: Patricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson*
    PA-10: Chris Carney vs. Don Sherwood*
    WI-08: Steve Kagen vs. John Gard

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress:

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Mike Beebe vs. Asa Hutchinson
    Colorado: Bill Ritter vs. Bob Beauprez
    Iowa: Chet Culver vs. Jim Nussle
    Maryland: Martin O'Malley vs. Bob Ehrlich
    Michigan: Jennifer Granholm* vs. Dick DeVos
    Minnesota: Mike Hatch vs. Tim Pawlenty*
    Nevada: Diana Titus vs. Jim Gibbons
    Wisconsin: Jim Doyle* vs. Mark Green
     
  2. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    Here is my entry:

    U.S. Senate:
    Arizona: Kyl by 3
    Connecticut: Lieberman by 9
    Maryland: Cardin by 1
    Michigan: Stabenow by 2
    Missouri: McCaskill by 1
    Montana: Tester by 2
    New Jersey: Menendez by 4
    Pennsylvania: Casey by 6
    Rhode Island: Whitehouse by 3
    Tennessee: Corker by 8
    Virginia: Webb by 1

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 50

    U.S. House
    AZ-05: Mitchell by 4
    CT-04: Farrell by 6
    FL-16: Negron by 1
    IN-08: Ellsworth by 8
    IN-09: Sodrel by 1
    IA-02: Loebsack by 1
    NC-11: Shuler by 8
    NM-01: Wilson by 1
    PA-10: Carney by 6
    WI-08: Kagen by 6

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 235

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Beebe by 10
    Colorado: Ritter by 8
    Iowa: Culver by 8
    Maryland: O'Malley by 1
    Michigan: Granholm by 7
    Minnesota: Hatch by 2
    Nevada: Gibbons by 5
    Wisconsin: Doyle by 2
     
  3. D-3 Fan

    D-3 Fan Active Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    U.S. Senate:
    Arizona: Jon Kyl by 2
    Connecticut: Joe Lieberman by 8
    Maryland: Ben Cardin by 3
    Michigan: Debbie Stabenow by 7
    Missouri: Jim Talent by 1
    Montana: Conrad Burns by 2
    New Jersey: Bob Menendez by 1
    Pennsylvania: Bob Casey by 1
    Rhode Island: Lincoln Chaffee by 5
    Tennessee: Bob Corker by 3
    Virginia: George Allen by 1

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 50

    U.S. House
    I picked 10 races that intrigued me
    AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth by 3
    CT-04: Chris Shays by 9
    FL-16: Tim Mahoney by 10
    IN-08: John Hostettler by 5
    IN-09: Mike Sodrel by 3
    IA-02: Jim Leach by 6 (this is a lock for sure. Iowans loves incumbents)
    NC-11: Shuler by 2
    NM-01: Heather Wilson by 3
    PA-10: Don Sherwood by 2
    WI-08: Steve Kagen by 4
    FWIW IA-01: Mike Whalen vs. Bruce Braley: Whalen by 1

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 239

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Mike Beebe by 1
    Colorado: Bill Ritter by 1
    Iowa: Chet Culver by 4 (still a tossup IMO, but Register has him ahead by 9)
    Maryland: Martin O'Malley by 4
    Michigan: Jennifer Granholm by 9
    Minnesota: Mike Hatch by 1
    Nevada: Jim Gibbons by 2
    Wisconsin: Jim Doyle by 4

    I'm surprised that the MA governor race wasn't included.
     
  4. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    Senate

    AZ: Kyl by 12
    CT: Lieberman by 10
    MD: Cardin by 4
    MO: McCaskill by less than 1
    MT: Burns by 2
    NJ: Menendez by 6
    PA: Casey by 9
    RI: Chafee by 4
    TN: Corker by 14
    VA: Webb by 1

    Number of GOP in Senate: 52 (53 in case of Lieberman switch)

    House
    AZ 5 Hayworth by 4
    CT-4: Farrell by 4
    FL-16: Negron by 8
    IN-8: Ellsworth by 4
    IN-9: Sodrel by 2
    IA-2: Leach by 8
    NC-11: Taylor by 4
    NM-1: Wilson by 6
    PA-10: Carney by 4
    WI-8 Gard by 7

    Number of Dems in House: 213

    Governors

    AR: Beebe by 8
    CO: Ritter by 10
    IA: Culver by less than 1
    MD: Ehrlich by 6
    MI: Granholm by 6
    MN: Pawlenty by 2
    NV: Gibbons by 10
    WI: Doyle by 2

    In summary, gerrymandering helps the GOP, but basically, it's just bad enough yet for people to vote for change on a massive scale. You can see the polls swinging back towards the devil they know in every place you look this morning.
     
  5. Flying Headbutt

    Flying Headbutt Moderator Staff Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    U.S. Senate:
    Arizona: Jon Kyl by 6
    Connecticut: Joe Lieberman by 10
    Maryland: Ben Cardin by 4
    Michigan: Debbie Stabenow by 5
    Missouri: Claire McCaskill by 1
    Montana: Jon Tester by 3
    New Jersey: Bob Menendez by 2
    Pennsylvania: Bob Casey by 8
    Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse by 4
    Tennessee: Bob Corker by 2
    Virginia: Jim Webb by 1

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 49

    U.S. House
    I picked 10 races that intrigued me
    AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth by 2
    CT-04: Diane Farrell bu 4
    FL-16: Tim Mahoney by 6
    IN-08: Brad Ellsworth bu 1
    IN-09: Baron Hill by 1
    IA-02: Jim Loebsack by 1
    NC-11: Heath Shuler by 3
    NM-01: Heather Wilson by 5
    PA-10: Chris Carney by 2
    WI-08: John Gard by 1

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 236

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Mike Beebe by 4
    Colorado: Bill Ritter by 2
    Iowa: Jim Nussle by 2
    Maryland: Martin O'Malley by a small 1
    Michigan: Jennifer Granholm by 3
    Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty by 2
    Nevada: Jim Gibbons by 1
    Wisconsin: Mark Green by 2


    Most of the house races are flat guesses, since only one or two of the races were ones I'd heard of. I'm sort of surprised (though not upset or anything) you didn't add more of the Pa. races. And I may change my vote (if I get a chance to, crazy next few days for me) in the Erhlich/O'Malley race still. Erhlich is closing really hard, to the point that if I were voting in Maryland I might lean his way after being solidly in O'Malley's camp for a while.
     
  6. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    The reason I chose Leach's seat is because that seat becomes vulnerable if the Dems get a 94-like wave. It's a roundabout way of asking if you think the Dems are really going to clean house.
     
  7. D-3 Fan

    D-3 Fan Active Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    Oh, I understand why you highlighted Leach's race, don't get me wrong. It's the natives here who would have a hizzy fit over it. :) No harm no foul
     
  8. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    I'm not going to look up any race I haven't been following, but I'll take a stab.

    U.S. Senate:
    Arizona: Jim Pedersen vs. Jon Kyl -- Kyl by 4
    Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs. Alan Schlesinger vs. Joe Lieberman Lieberman by 6
    Maryland: Ben Cardin vs. Michael Steele -- Cardin by 6
    Michigan: Debbie Stabenow* vs. Michael Bouchard Bouchard by 2
    Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent -- McCaskill by 2
    Montana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns Tester by 5
    New Jersey: Bob Menendez* vs. Tom Kean Menedez by 2
    Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs. Rick Santorum Casey by 10
    Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chaffee Chaffee by 1
    Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker -- Corker by 3
    Virginia: Jim Webb vs. George Allen -- Webb by 4

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 49

    U.S. House
    I picked 10 races that intrigued me
    AZ-05: Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth -- Mitchell by 3
    CT-04: Diane Farrell vs. Chris Shays -- Shays by 1
    FL-16: Tim Mahoney vs. Mark Foley/Joe Negron (Foley is on the ballot, but all votes for him go to Negron) -- Mahoney by 10
    IN-08: Brad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler -- Ellsworth by 6
    IN-09: Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel -- Hill by 5
    IA-02: Jim Loebsack vs. Jim Leach -- Leach by 2
    NC-11: Heath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor -- Shuler by 4
    NM-01: Patricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson -- Wilson by 1
    PA-10: Chris Carney vs. Don Sherwood -- Carney by 5
    WI-08: Steve Kagen vs. John Gard -- Kagen by 1

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 240

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Mike Beebe vs. Asa Hutchinson Beebe by 5
    Colorado: Bill Ritter vs. Bob Beauprez -- Ritter by 3
    Iowa: Chet Culver vs. Jim Nussle -- Nussle by 5
    Maryland: Martin O'Malley vs. Bob Ehrlich -- O'Malley by 10
    Michigan: Jennifer Granholm* vs. Dick DeVos -- Cranholm by 8
    Minnesota: Mike Hatch vs. Tim Pawlenty* -- Hatch by 3
    Nevada: Diana Titus vs. Jim Gibbons -- Gibbons by 3
    Wisconsin: Jim Doyle* vs. Mark Green -- Green by 5
     
  9. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    Bump
     
  10. Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    I was going to pick, but then today's Gallup poll screwed me up.
     
  11. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    Bringing a knife to a gunfight here, but here goes:

    U.S. Senate:
    Arizona: Kyl by 5
    Connecticut: Lieberman by 5
    Maryland: Cardin by 2
    Michigan: Stabenow by 6
    Missouri: McCaskill by 1
    Montana: Burns by 1
    New Jersey: Menendez by 3
    Pennsylvania: Casey by 4
    Rhode Island: Chaffee by 2
    Tennessee: Corker by 5
    Virginia: Allen by 2

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 52 (hedging bets)

    U.S. House
    AZ-05: Hayworth by 2
    CT-04: Shays by 2
    FL-16: Mahoney by 20
    IN-08: Hostettler by 5
    IN-09: Sodrel by 5
    IA-02: Loebsack by 1
    NC-11: Taylor by 2
    NM-01: Wilson by 4
    PA-10: Carney by 2
    WI-08: Kagen by 3

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 220

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Beebe by 6
    Colorado: Ritter by 3
    Iowa: Culver by 5
    Maryland: O'Malley by 5
    Michigan: Granholm by 3
    Minnesota: Pawlenty by 1
    Nevada: Gibbons by 2
    Wisconsin: Doyle by 7
     
  12. Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

    I blew the deadline, so these are For Entertainment Purposes only, but here goes:

    .S. Senate:
    Arizona: Jim Pedersen vs. Jon Kyl* (Kyl +3)
    Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs. Alan Schlesinger vs. Joe Lieberman* (Joe Dickhead +4)
    Maryland: Ben Cardin vs. Michael Steele (Cardin +2)
    Michigan: Debbie Stabenow* vs. Michael Bouchard (Stabenow +7)
    Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent* (McCaskill +3)
    Montana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns* (Tester +5)
    New Jersey: Bob Menendez* vs. Tom Kean (Menendez +3)
    Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs. Rick Santorum* (Casey +8)
    Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chaffee* (Whitehouse +1)
    Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker (Corker +6)
    Virginia: Jim Webb vs. George Allen* (Webb +2)

    Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress:49

    U.S. House
    I picked 10 races that intrigued me
    AZ-05: Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth* (Mitchell +1)
    CT-04: Diane Farrell vs. Chris Shays* (Farrell +3)
    FL-16: Tim Mahoney vs. Mark Foley/Joe Negron (Foley is on the ballot, but all votes for him go to Negron) (Mahoney +9)
    IN-08: Brad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler* (Ellsworth +7)
    IN-09: Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel* (Sodrel +1)
    IA-02: Jim Loebsack vs. Jim Leach* (Leach +2)
    NC-11: Heath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor* (Shuler +4. QB Rating: 72.8)
    NM-01: Patricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson* (Madrid +3)
    PA-10: Chris Carney vs. Don Sherwood* (Carney +4)
    WI-08: Steve Kagen vs. John Gard (Kagen +6)

    The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress:230

    Governor's Races
    Arkansas: Mike Beebe vs. Asa Hutchinson (Hutchinson +2)
    Colorado: Bill Ritter vs. Bob Beauprez (Ritter +10)
    Iowa: Chet Culver vs. Jim Nussle (Culver +4)
    Maryland: Martin O'Malley vs. Bob Ehrlich (O'Malley +2)
    Michigan: Jennifer Granholm* vs. Dick DeVos (Granholm +5)
    Minnesota: Mike Hatch vs. Tim Pawlenty* (Hatch +3)
    Nevada: Diana Titus vs. Jim Gibbons (Titus +5. Gibbons .10+)
    Wisconsin: Jim Doyle* vs. Mark Green (Doyle +11)
     
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