Official SJ.com Elections Pickem WITH RESULTS

Might as well do this for politics, since most of us seem to love arguing about it so much. I don't know how popular this will be, although I'm pretty sure Fenian and Ben Hecht will get sucked in.

For the following races, you must predict a winner and a percentage margin of victory (i.e. you think A will beat B 52-48, then you predict A by 4 points). The winner will be the person with the fewest percentage points off (i.e. if B wins by 3 and you predicted A by 4, you are off by 7). To put extra emphasis on picking winners, there is a 5 point penalty for picking the wrong guy. Percentages will be rounded up/down to the nearest whole number (52.4 becomes 52...52.5 becomes 53). And even if a race is decided by a single vote, there is a minimum 1 point percentage. Some questions will ask how many seats a party will hold. If you say the GOP will hold 52 Senate seats and they hold 45, you get 7 points added to your score.

Winner gets bragging rights and can put this in their sig. I will close entries at 1:15 p.m. EST on Tuesday

Just to make things easier, the Dem is listed first in every race. *=Incumbent

U.S. Senate:
Arizona: Jim Pedersen vs. Jon Kyl*
Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs. Alan Schlesinger vs. Joe Lieberman*
Maryland: Ben Cardin vs. Michael Steele
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow* vs. Michael Bouchard
Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent*
Montana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns*
New Jersey: Bob Menendez* vs. Tom Kean
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs. Rick Santorum*
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chaffee*
Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker
Virginia: Jim Webb vs. George Allen*

Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress:

U.S. House
I picked 10 races that intrigued me
AZ-05: Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth*
CT-04: Diane Farrell vs. Chris Shays*
FL-16: Tim Mahoney vs. Mark Foley/Joe Negron (Foley is on the ballot, but all votes for him go to Negron)
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler*
IN-09: Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel*
IA-02: Jim Loebsack vs. Jim Leach*
NC-11: Heath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor*
NM-01: Patricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson*
PA-10: Chris Carney vs. Don Sherwood*
WI-08: Steve Kagen vs. John Gard

The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress:

Governor's Races
Arkansas: Mike Beebe vs. Asa Hutchinson
Colorado: Bill Ritter vs. Bob Beauprez
Iowa: Chet Culver vs. Jim Nussle
Maryland: Martin O'Malley vs. Bob Ehrlich
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm* vs. Dick DeVos
Minnesota: Mike Hatch vs. Tim Pawlenty*
Nevada: Diana Titus vs. Jim Gibbons
Wisconsin: Jim Doyle* vs. Mark Green

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

Here is my entry:

U.S. Senate:
Arizona: Kyl by 3
Connecticut: Lieberman by 9
Maryland: Cardin by 1
Michigan: Stabenow by 2
Missouri: McCaskill by 1
Montana: Tester by 2
New Jersey: Menendez by 4
Pennsylvania: Casey by 6
Rhode Island: Whitehouse by 3
Tennessee: Corker by 8
Virginia: Webb by 1

Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 50

U.S. House
AZ-05: Mitchell by 4
CT-04: Farrell by 6
FL-16: Negron by 1
IN-08: Ellsworth by 8
IN-09: Sodrel by 1
IA-02: Loebsack by 1
NC-11: Shuler by 8
NM-01: Wilson by 1
PA-10: Carney by 6
WI-08: Kagen by 6

The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 235

Governor's Races
Arkansas: Beebe by 10
Colorado: Ritter by 8
Iowa: Culver by 8
Maryland: O'Malley by 1
Michigan: Granholm by 7
Minnesota: Hatch by 2
Nevada: Gibbons by 5
Wisconsin: Doyle by 2

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

U.S. Senate:
Arizona: Jon Kyl by 2
Connecticut: Joe Lieberman by 8
Maryland: Ben Cardin by 3
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow by 7
Missouri: Jim Talent by 1
Montana: Conrad Burns by 2
New Jersey: Bob Menendez by 1
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey by 1
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chaffee by 5
Tennessee: Bob Corker by 3
Virginia: George Allen by 1

Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 50

U.S. House
I picked 10 races that intrigued me
AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth by 3
CT-04: Chris Shays by 9
FL-16: Tim Mahoney by 10
IN-08: John Hostettler by 5
IN-09: Mike Sodrel by 3
IA-02: Jim Leach by 6 (this is a lock for sure. Iowans loves incumbents)
NC-11: Shuler by 2
NM-01: Heather Wilson by 3
PA-10: Don Sherwood by 2
WI-08: Steve Kagen by 4
FWIW IA-01: Mike Whalen vs. Bruce Braley: Whalen by 1

The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 239

Governor's Races
Arkansas: Mike Beebe by 1
Colorado: Bill Ritter by 1
Iowa: Chet Culver by 4 (still a tossup IMO, but Register has him ahead by 9)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley by 4
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm by 9
Minnesota: Mike Hatch by 1
Nevada: Jim Gibbons by 2
Wisconsin: Jim Doyle by 4

I'm surprised that the MA governor race wasn't included.

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

Senate

AZ: Kyl by 12
CT: Lieberman by 10
MD: Cardin by 4
MO: McCaskill by less than 1
MT: Burns by 2
NJ: Menendez by 6
PA: Casey by 9
RI: Chafee by 4
TN: Corker by 14
VA: Webb by 1

Number of GOP in Senate: 52 (53 in case of Lieberman switch)

House
AZ 5 Hayworth by 4
CT-4: Farrell by 4
FL-16: Negron by 8
IN-8: Ellsworth by 4
IN-9: Sodrel by 2
IA-2: Leach by 8
NC-11: Taylor by 4
NM-1: Wilson by 6
PA-10: Carney by 4
WI-8 Gard by 7

Number of Dems in House: 213

Governors

AR: Beebe by 8
CO: Ritter by 10
IA: Culver by less than 1
MD: Ehrlich by 6
MI: Granholm by 6
MN: Pawlenty by 2
NV: Gibbons by 10
WI: Doyle by 2

In summary, gerrymandering helps the GOP, but basically, it's just bad enough yet for people to vote for change on a massive scale. You can see the polls swinging back towards the devil they know in every place you look this morning.

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

The reason I chose Leach's seat is because that seat becomes vulnerable if the Dems get a 94-like wave. It's a roundabout way of asking if you think the Dems are really going to clean house.

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

Oh, I understand why you highlighted Leach's race, don't get me wrong. It's the natives here who would have a hizzy fit over it. No harm no foul

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

I'm not going to look up any race I haven't been following, but I'll take a stab.

U.S. Senate:
Arizona: Jim Pedersen vs. Jon Kyl -- Kyl by 4
Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs. Alan Schlesinger vs. Joe Lieberman Lieberman by 6
Maryland: Ben Cardin vs. Michael Steele -- Cardin by 6
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow* vs. Michael Bouchard Bouchard by 2
Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent -- McCaskill by 2
Montana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns Tester by 5
New Jersey: Bob Menendez* vs. Tom Kean Menedez by 2
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs. Rick Santorum Casey by 10
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chaffee Chaffee by 1
Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker -- Corker by 3
Virginia: Jim Webb vs. George Allen -- Webb by 4

Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 49

U.S. House
I picked 10 races that intrigued me
AZ-05: Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth -- Mitchell by 3
CT-04: Diane Farrell vs. Chris Shays -- Shays by 1
FL-16: Tim Mahoney vs. Mark Foley/Joe Negron (Foley is on the ballot, but all votes for him go to Negron) -- Mahoney by 10
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler -- Ellsworth by 6
IN-09: Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel -- Hill by 5
IA-02: Jim Loebsack vs. Jim Leach -- Leach by 2
NC-11: Heath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor -- Shuler by 4
NM-01: Patricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson -- Wilson by 1
PA-10: Chris Carney vs. Don Sherwood -- Carney by 5
WI-08: Steve Kagen vs. John Gard -- Kagen by 1

The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 240

Governor's Races
Arkansas: Mike Beebe vs. Asa Hutchinson Beebe by 5
Colorado: Bill Ritter vs. Bob Beauprez -- Ritter by 3
Iowa: Chet Culver vs. Jim Nussle -- Nussle by 5
Maryland: Martin O'Malley vs. Bob Ehrlich -- O'Malley by 10
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm* vs. Dick DeVos -- Cranholm by 8
Minnesota: Mike Hatch vs. Tim Pawlenty* -- Hatch by 3
Nevada: Diana Titus vs. Jim Gibbons -- Gibbons by 3
Wisconsin: Jim Doyle* vs. Mark Green -- Green by 5

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

Bump

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

I was going to pick, but then today's Gallup poll screwed me up.

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

Bringing a knife to a gunfight here, but here goes:

U.S. Senate:
Arizona: Kyl by 5
Connecticut: Lieberman by 5
Maryland: Cardin by 2
Michigan: Stabenow by 6
Missouri: McCaskill by 1
Montana: Burns by 1
New Jersey: Menendez by 3
Pennsylvania: Casey by 4
Rhode Island: Chaffee by 2
Tennessee: Corker by 5
Virginia: Allen by 2

Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress: 52 (hedging bets)

U.S. House
AZ-05: Hayworth by 2
CT-04: Shays by 2
FL-16: Mahoney by 20
IN-08: Hostettler by 5
IN-09: Sodrel by 5
IA-02: Loebsack by 1
NC-11: Taylor by 2
NM-01: Wilson by 4
PA-10: Carney by 2
WI-08: Kagen by 3

The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress: 220

Governor's Races
Arkansas: Beebe by 6
Colorado: Ritter by 3
Iowa: Culver by 5
Maryland: O'Malley by 5
Michigan: Granholm by 3
Minnesota: Pawlenty by 1
Nevada: Gibbons by 2
Wisconsin: Doyle by 7

 

Re: Official SportsJournalists.com Elections Pickem

I blew the deadline, so these are For Entertainment Purposes only, but here goes:

.S. Senate:
Arizona: Jim Pedersen vs. Jon Kyl* (Kyl +3)
Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs. Alan Schlesinger vs. Joe Lieberman* (Joe Dickhead +4)
Maryland: Ben Cardin vs. Michael Steele (Cardin +2)
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow* vs. Michael Bouchard (Stabenow +7)
Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent* (McCaskill +3)
Montana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns* (Tester +5)
New Jersey: Bob Menendez* vs. Tom Kean (Menendez +3)
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey vs. Rick Santorum* (Casey +8)
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chaffee* (Whitehouse +1)
Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker (Corker +6)
Virginia: Jim Webb vs. George Allen* (Webb +2)

Number of GOP seats in the Senate in the next Congress:49

U.S. House
I picked 10 races that intrigued me
AZ-05: Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth* (Mitchell +1)
CT-04: Diane Farrell vs. Chris Shays* (Farrell +3)
FL-16: Tim Mahoney vs. Mark Foley/Joe Negron (Foley is on the ballot, but all votes for him go to Negron) (Mahoney +9)
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler* (Ellsworth +7)
IN-09: Baron Hill vs. Mike Sodrel* (Sodrel +1)
IA-02: Jim Loebsack vs. Jim Leach* (Leach +2)
NC-11: Heath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor* (Shuler +4. QB Rating: 72.8)
NM-01: Patricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson* (Madrid +3)
PA-10: Chris Carney vs. Don Sherwood* (Carney +4)
WI-08: Steve Kagen vs. John Gard (Kagen +6)

The Democrats will have how many House seats in the next Congress:230

Governor's Races
Arkansas: Mike Beebe vs. Asa Hutchinson (Hutchinson +2)
Colorado: Bill Ritter vs. Bob Beauprez (Ritter +10)
Iowa: Chet Culver vs. Jim Nussle (Culver +4)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley vs. Bob Ehrlich (O'Malley +2)
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm* vs. Dick DeVos (Granholm +5)
Minnesota: Mike Hatch vs. Tim Pawlenty* (Hatch +3)
Nevada: Diana Titus vs. Jim Gibbons (Titus +5. Gibbons .10+)
Wisconsin: Jim Doyle* vs. Mark Green (Doyle +11)