NL MVP: Can Tulowitzki win it?

He wouldn't even have been on anyone's top 10 ballot as of Aug. 31. But Tulowitzki is hitting .371 with 14 HRs and 33 RBIs for a team that has made up six games in the standings in not even three weeks to jump into the NL West and wild-card races. He has a good chance at the home run record for any month (Sosa, 20 in June 1998) and probably will get the one for September (17). He also has a chance at Babe Ruth's September record of 43 RBIs.

The numbers that can compare, compare favorably: fourth in slugging and OPS, third in BA. Behind Pujols and Votto, of course.

So can one month of unbelievable dominance, the kind that truly may have never been seen previously, overcome all that time he missed and the fairly pedestrian power numbers he put up through August even while he was in there?

 

I doubt it. I don't think he is even the best candidate on his own team. Carlos Gonzalez has also been a huge part of the Rockies' surge back into contention and his numbers are much better overall. Gonzalez leads the National League in batting average (.341). He is second in RBI (106), fourth in home runs (32) and third in OPS (.990), just ahead of Tulowitzki.

I think the award should go to Votto, who leads the league in OPS. He is third in batting average, home runs and RBI and is the dominant player on a team that is going to win a division championship.

 

When healthy and positional adjustment he may be the best fielder in the game today. He has a 160 OPS+ over his last 220+ games. I've got him at .313/.399/.614 for his last 224. He's 26-7 in base stealing attempts in that span. I won't pick him as my MVP right now because he missed 39 games and I don't think I can do it for a guy with only 120 games played unless it is an unbelievable year.

I believe it's Votto's to lose right now. But Tulo is putting on a show as of late.

 

Of course, I posted before seeing that Tulowitzki hit two more home runs today. Just an incredible streak he is on right now.

I do agree that defense should count in his favor. Tulowitzki is an outstanding shortstop. I just think he missed too much time to win the award when there are deserving candidates like Gonzalez and Votto ahead of him.

That said, one thing that might work in Tulowitzki's favor is that his home/road splits are not as dramatic as Gonzalez's. After tonight's game, he has 12 home runs on the road and 14 at home. Gonzalez has only seven home runs on the road and 25 at Coors Field.

 

Can he or should he?

I could probably be convinced he should if he stays this hot for awhile.

But starting late and asking voters to give you credit for position adjustment is a tall order.

 

What does getting hot late have to do with expecting voters to give him credit for being an outstanding shortstop?

 

They don't have anything to do with each other, just that they are two obstacles his candidacy would face.

 

Here are Gonzalez's home/road splits.

Code:

                                                                                                                      
Split    G GS  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Home    68 66 305 273 66 107 19  4 25  72 10  3 25 47 .392 .439 .766 1.205 209   4   2  0  5   6   2  .398   141   214
Away    65 62 276 263 36  76 13  4  7  34 13  5 11 75 .289 .315 .449  .764 118   3   0  0  2   2   4  .377    56   114

Has you can see, Coors field is very friendly to Carlos.

 

It reminds me a little of C.C. Sabathia's run for Milwaukee two years ago. He seemed to will that team to the playoffs with incredible starts every three days.

Tulowitzki had a very average five months (offensively) and an out-of-this world September. I don't think that will be enough.

 

He was a bit better than average before September. He batted over .300 in every month but June, hit .319 with five home runs and 13 RBI in May and .351 with three home runs and 16 RBI in August. Remember, Tulowitzki missed over a month with a broken wrist, so he played only 13 games in June and five in July. That is what held his counting numbers down.

I agree with your overall assessment, but I think it is the injury that is going to end up costing Tulowitzki as much as anything.

 

But can't the time he missed count in his favor too? The Rockies were 14-20 when he was hurt. They are 68-46 in all other games. I know there were lots of other injuries, but his is the most significant.

If Tulowitzki keeps this up or anything near it, he could pull close to even with Gonzalez in HRs and RBIs.

I know all the sabermetricians say April and July and September are no different. But it's hard to believe that when something like this is happening. If the Rockies make the playoffs and he gets to, say, .330/30/100, I wonder if enough voters will accept those thresholds and look at the way he poured it on.

 

Could he end up ahead of Gonzalez? Perhaps. Though I doubt he can stay quite this hot the rest of the way.

Would that be enough to pass Votto, too? I don't think so.