NL Cy Young

Wins are the determining factor. If a guy is 22-5 with an ERA a run higher than a guy who is 17-10 and who led the league in Ks, guess who gets the award? That's how the voters vote.

No one even won 20 games last year, so Greinke and Lincecum got more attention for their other accomplishments, like strong ERA and high K totals. Plus Lincecum was the defending Cy winner.

Most likely Ubaldo finishes with ~22 wins and very few losses. That means Halladay or Wainwright or whoever will need to win 20 or more to beat him out. Lots of Joe Morgans voting for Cy Young will ensure it.

 

I just don't think that's the case any more. Particularly when you're talking about huge innings eaters like Halladay and Wainwright. It would be one thing in a year like the one Roger Clemens had a 1.87 ERA, but always pitched five or six innings. In that case, I think going with the higher ERA guy with more wins is justified, because the wins reflect that the pitcher was going deeper into games than someone like Clemens. But that's not what's happening here.

 

I think a lot of writers are coming around, maybe I'm wrong, but understanding why a pitchers Won Loss record is overrated should not be difficult.

 

If Ubaldo finishes 22-5 and no one else wins more than 20, and Ubaldo's team isn't much over .500, many will find it very difficult to vote for someone else.

 

With the ERAs holding steady as they are right now? Doubtful.

And the thing is, the way he's going, he's likely to be closer to 3.00, or even over that, before the season is over. No way they give it to a guy with an ERA at or near 3, with four other guys in the 2.00-2.20 range. No f-ing way.

 

1. Wainwright: 17-7, 2.06, 5 CG, 2 Sho, 165 K, 43 BB, 0.976 WHIP
1A. Halladay: 15-8, 2.24, 8 CG, 3 Sho (1 perfect), 175 K, 22 BB, 1.010 WHIP
3. Johnson: 11-5, 2.27, 1 CG, 162 K, 38 BB, 1.056 WHIP
4. Hudson: 14-5, 2.15, 1 CG, 91K, 56 BB, 1.089 WHIP
5. Jimenez: 17-3, 2.59, 3 CG, 2 Sho (no-hitter), 153 K, 65 BB, 1.120 WHIP

 

In 1973, Ron Bryant was a 24-game winner. He lost out to 19-game winner Tom Seaver. It can happen.

 

Man, Bryant got screwed. He was really something.

Did the Seaver kid have good stuff? Did he ever make a name for himself?

(Done to save Spnited a post)

 

Lead the league in ERA and Ks, be a previous Cy winner and be in the top five every year since, that'll help overcome. Bryant also lost more than Seaver. Ubaldo won't have many losses.

So if Ubaldo can get up to double-digit losses against 24 wins and someone can lead the league in Ks and ERA without winning 20, then that will give them a shot.

 

That year, I really thought Bryant got screwed.

 

That's a lot of ifs. For him to get seven wins over the next six weeks, he'll have to approach them in ERA.

 

Bryant: 3.53 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 8 CG, 143K, 115 BB, H/9 IP 9.4
Seaver: 2.08 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, 18 CG, 251 K, 65 BB, H/9 IP 6.8

No contest.