NFL Playoffs Running Thread

Meh, they came out alright but not great.

This week's predictions:

Green Bay 50.6%
Pittsburgh 64.1%

 

Not really playoff news, but hearing that Suggs wants out of Baltimore.

 

One difference from last time: If the Jets blitz 40 times, like they did last time, they will have to cover the tight end. Heath Miller missed the last game with a concussion, so all short/safety passes went to wideouts last time. That won't be the case this week. Miller is Roethlisberger's security blanket.

 

Spaeth picked up some of that slack, but he is a big downgrade from Miller. He had the ball go off his hands in the end zone on the final two plays of the first meeting.

That is the other thing people keep forgetting. It's not like the Jets won easily the first time. The Steelers had two shots at the end of the game to win it. The Jets are playing better now and the Steelers are healthier. Should be pretty even.

 

I remember Spaeth did step up and catch some balls in that game, which I normally wouldn't notice but him catching footballs is something you notice since it happens so few times . . . but he did drop a perfect game winner in the end zone on the final play of the game. Either way, they didn't totally go away from their game plan to get the TE involved, no matter who it was.

 

Wonder if Ryan dresses 11 DBs again. And without much blitzing, the DL produced five sacks against an offensive line better than Pittsburgh's.
I still pick the Steelers because I don't think Sanchez can yet put three mistake-free games together.
I have a hard time betting against the Packers after seeing what they did against the Pats offensively WITHOUT Rodgers. They were the only team that ran successfully on the Pats in the second half of the regular season (remember, the Jets had a short field for three of their four TD drives).
Notwithstanding the occasional spectacular performance, I don't think Cutler's a championship QB. If Rodgers isn't there, he's certainly closer at least.

 

I wouldn't say the last one was perfect. It was on the sideline and in traffic, so it would have been a great catch.

The problem was the play before, when Spaeth reached up and failed to catch a ball that I don't think was even intended for him. I think it was meant for the receiver behind him.

He caught three or four passes, including a touchdown, but I think he could have done more.

That said, it really doesn't mean much now. The Steelers would have been the two seed no matter how that game turned out.

 

Since the Steelers rarely throw to their backs they are in some ways easier to account for than the Patriots.
For Steelers you typically only have to account for 4 players. With Pats The Jets had to account for 5 with Woodhead coming out of backfield.

How the Jets defends Steelers will be similar to what they did against Pats- play 4 down lineman - 2 LBS and 5 DB's . Sometimes they will blitz a DB off the edge. They will look to slow Miller off the ball and LBs will cover short middle for crossing patterns. Revis should be able to shut down Wallace.

Key to me will be Jets ability to stop Steelers run game with only 6 men in the box. Jets need big game from their D line. Pats had no run game to speak off.

If I were the Steelers I would try to throw to backs early to cut down on corner blitzes.

 

The Steelers' running game has been erratic at best, but Mendenhall did have over 100 yards on only 17 carries in the first meeting.

The Ravens got pressure rushing three or four last week, but most of that was Suggs. The Jets don't have a pass rusher like him.

You would think this will be a very low-scoring game with two erratic offenses and two very strong defenses run by coaches who should be able to adapt to what happened in the last game.

 

What should Brett Favre do? (This video is incredible)

#!

 

I see the Steelers and Patriots as two completely different approaches to the passing game. Agree on them using more defensive backs, but that might not work as well because they will have much more space to cover.

8.2 -- Roethlisberger yards per attempt
21.0 -- Wallace YPC
18.6 -- Brown YPC
13.4 -- Sanders YPC
12.8 -- Ward YPC
12.2 -- Miller YPC

7.9 -- Brady YPA
14.7 -- Branch YPC
13.0 -- Gronkowski YPC
12.5 -- Hernandez YPC
11.2 -- Woodhead YPC
9.9 -- Welker YPC

The Jets have done a phenomenal job the past two weeks against Manning and Brady, but both those guys are more willing to check down underneath than Roethlisberger, who's willing to accept greater risk (holding on to the ball too long) for greater reward (shots downfield). And with Roethlisberger, there's no such thing as happy feet, so corner blitzes wouldn't both him as much as other quarterbacks.

One more thing: The Patriots, for whatever reason, were never willing to commit to the run despite BenJarvis Green-Ellis (9 carries, 43 yards, 4.8 YPC) having success whenever they called his number. The Steelers won't stray from Mendenhall that easily, even if they don't have success from the start.

 

Ultimately Jets inability to stop Mendenhall proved to be their downfall. Steelers adjusted nicely to what The Jets were giving them - even dropped in a few swing passes - something they rarely do.

Schottenheimer play calling was erratic as usual. Watching Jets all year it seems like both he and Sanchez work better on the fly with little time for over-thinking. Rarely were The Jets able to come out at beginning of games and execute their game plan.

Ultimately not punching it in late in 4th qtr did not hurt them but play calling in that series was awful also.