New running primaries thread

So Bill Clinton doesn't like Todd Purdum's take on him in Vanity Fair:
"[He's] sleazy," he said referring to Purdum. "He's a really dishonest reporter. And one of our guys talked to him . . . And I haven't read [the article]. But he told me there's five or six just blatant lies in there. But he's a real slimy guy," the former president said.

When I reminded him that Purdum was married to his former press spokesperson Myers, Clinton was undeterred.

"That's all right-- he's still a scumbag," Clinton said. " Let me tell ya-- he's one of the guys -- he's one of the guys that propagated all those lies about Whitewater to Kenneth Starr. He's just a dishonest guy-- can't help it."

Too bad Bill couldn't get this story spiked like he did on the GQ one last year. And by the way, I agree with Bill that using an unnamed source or sources to relate what another unnamed person has said, without getting that other unnamed person to confirm an unflattering anecdote is very lame.

 

FiveThirtyEight (a site run by a Kos diarist and Obama supporter who uses all sorts of sophisticated modeling) has Obama-McCain as a virtual dead-heat and has Clinton beating McCain 65% of the time.

According to their numbers, Hillary will do much better in Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Obama is a better choice to win in Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Interesting site.

*Again, this doesn't take away from the fact that we have a long way to go and a lot can change*

 

538 is run by a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus (whose name escapes me at the moment.

 

How much of that is Bradley effect? People saying they'd vote for Obama so they won't appear racist, but will change their tune in the voting booth.

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/reverse-bradley-effect-fact-or-fiction.html

 

I didn't know that, but it doesn't surprise me. Whoever this person is knows how run the data. I got a headache reading the FAQ section.

 

It's Nate from Baseball Prospectus.

And his modeling is very interesting. Check out his 5/10/15 model for increased turnout if you really want to have your head blown back.

 

I can't find it off-hand. Got a link?

 

Where is that on his site?

(Tell Nate to install a Google search for his BLOG!)

 

I'm looking for it right now.

It might be on Kos.

 

Here you go.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html

 

Holy crap, that's good stuff.