MLB All-Star Break Awards / Predictions

Umm you can't factor in plate appearances but eliminate walks.

You must be 17 (the number next to your name). Otherwise you need to just stop following baseball because you don't really know the sport very well.

RBIs are not that great of a stat. They are very reliant on the team you play for. Why does Gonzalez have more RBIs? Because he plays for the Red Sox. That is it. He has more RBIs because the team he plays on has a lineup full of great hitters. Bautista doesn't have another All-Star quality hitter with him (Lind is good but for his position average). Put Bautista in Gonzalez's spot in the Red Sox lineup and he has a lot more RBIs.

Anyways on the topic of walks, they are essentially the same as singles. So once again Bautista has reached base safely 11 more times than Gonzalez. Quit ignoring it. Hits are not the only way to get on base safely.

Here's some stats for you: Bautista has 174 hits or walks in 379 plate appearances. That means he reaches base safely 46.8 percent of the time. Gonzalez is 168 in 403 for 41.4 percent. Hey would you look at that, it's the same as there on-base percentages.

How about how Gonzalez leads the league with 20 grounded into double plays. How many runs has that cost his team? A heck of lot more than Bautista since he has only grounded into a double play five times.

How about how Gonzalez has had nearly twice has many chances to bat with runners in scoring position (112 to 66). If you equalized that Bautista would have 22 more RBIs based on his current rate. If you go the other way Gonzalez would lose 23 RBIs. This would be the thing that shows how much Gonzalez benefits from being in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.

How about some historic significance?

-Bautista is on pace to have the most non-steroid tanted HR's in a single season and he's doing it in a season that has seen the least amount of runs scored 20 years.

-He is on pace for a top 30 all-time OPS this season.

-He's on pace for the 34th best slugging percentage ever.


Gonzalez? He's on pace for the most GDP's in a single season.



-He's on pace for the 14th most walks in a single season.

 

Clearly we're never going to agree.

But vicd, thanks for bringing that up. I might have to go Manny Acta on that one. Though Maddon does constantly amaze me with what he can do down there.

NL has got to be Clint Hurdle. Unless there's some statistic other than Wins I'm not putting enough weight on.

..... joke ......

 

They agree with you that he should be the MVP, not so sure how many think he's been the better hitter. You really are looking foolish here.

 

that is simply because you are wrong.

 

I posted the above before Cubbiefan posted his remarks.

Cool... brought in other stats that show perhaps Bautista is the stronger candidate at the plate. And yes, Gonzo's spot in the lineup is a huge benefit. I also appreciate that someone finally made a coherent argument without using SLG. I like it. And I'll take it. I'm highly doubtful that Bautista will in fact go on to do many of those things.... but them I'm also highly doubtful that Gonzalez will finish the year batting .354. As stated above, let's chat again in September.

So yeah, other than the fact that you're a Cubs fan, I'll accept the argument in that post. Stats like that will win me over. SLG% won't.

Oh, and Cubbiefan.... you caught me. Yep, I'm 17. I had to get mommy's permission to post on these forums. She's gonna be mad that you guys are bullying me!!!!

Can't we disagree - and sometimes admit that we're wrong - without TWICE calling someone a teenager?

 

That's not a "fairly wide margin." If in fact there were no difference between these two players with respect to the likelihood of hitting safely, you'd see this magnitude of the sample statistic (the difference in current batting averages) a fairly large percentage of time. Put another way, if you were to conclude, based on this evidence, that Gonzalez's true likelihood of hitting safely is greater than Bautista's, your best-case scenario is that you'd have about a 6% chance of being wrong.

 

You're going to need to explain how HR's inflate slugging in a way that makes the stat next to meaningless.

You realize slugging is just the representation of bases per at-bat right? If you hit a single every single time your slugging in 1.000 because you get one base per at bat. If you go 1-3 with a double it would be .667 because you got two bases in three at-bats. Home runs do make slugging higher but only because you took more bases. That is all it is. You cite that Gonzalez has a lot more doubles. Those inflate his slugging at the same rate as Bautista's. The only difference is home runs account for four bases not two. They also guarantee a run is scored for the team.

You used the example of 4-4 with all singles versus 1-4 with a HR. Which one I would rather have depends on the team. On the Red Sox I would rather have the first because the team is loaded with hitters and chances are you will score more than once. If the player is on the Blue Jays I will take the home run because that guarantees a run. Most likely a guy getting on first four times in a game would not result in more than one run. This is all without mention of one of best advantages to a home run rather than a single. A HR scores everyone on base. A single scores the guy on third and half the time the guy on second.

Also, as I somewhat said before ... you can't do hits to plate appearances. The difference between plate appearances and at-bats in walks and HBP. If you want how often someone gets a hit and only a hit you have to go by at-bats. If you go by plate appearances you have to factor in walks. I already showed how Bautista reaches base more than Gonzalez (11 times more this season in less plate appearances). If you do it the right way (hits/at-bats) Gonzalez is two percent more likely to get a hit. That is what batting average represents. .354 to .334 is a difference of two percent.

 

Exactly. It's not like Bautista isn't hitting for average. He is batting .334 for the season.

Gonzalez is also much more likely to make an out than Bautista and much less likely to get on base.

Chris, you have been given plenty of stats other than slugging percentage all through this discussion. You just don't want to hear it. You'd rather shove your fingers in your ears and be wrong.

 

First of all, perhaps if you'd read posts from people who disagree with you, you'd see that I conceded the point 3 posts ago. Secondly, again, if you'd read posts from people who disagree with you, you'd see my points about SLG percentage, and about percentages in general. Let me answer some responses....

doctorquant - Saying 5% is "not a fairly wide margin". But then in the very next post we're talking about 11 at bats over the course of 376, which is less than 3%. Also keep in mind that when talking batting averages (or OBP) 5% equates to 50 points, 3 percent to 30 points, etc. 5% is huge in baseball. That's the difference between hitting .340 and hitting .290.... 5%.

outofplace - "much" more likely to get an out? Over the course of nearly 90 games, JB has reached 11 more times than AG. So once in 8 games. Not "much more likely".

Cubbiebum - A lot here. First of all, you earlier ransacked me for making the RBI argument because it's too dependent on the actions of your teammates. But then, you used an argument against AG that he grounds into too many double plays. Oh, and that's not dependent on teammates? You're talking out of both sides of your mouth on that one.

Secondly, you don't have to explain the math behind statistics to me. I'm not 14. I understand the math, which is why I gave the 4-4 vs 1-4 example. And btw, if you would honestly say over the course of a season that you'd rather have the 1-4 with a HR hitter over the 4-4 hitter, then you've lost it. Year after year after year that kind of focus on HRs is disproved. SLG is over inflated, and that's been proven. Again, you don't have to teach me third grade math. Anyone involved with SABRmetrics would say you're insane for taking the 1-4 over the 4-4, and all of you are a little too tied to the HR. And, most importantly, that HRs inflate SLG%.

Finally, "you can't do hits to plate appearances. The difference between plate appearances and at-bats in walks and HBP. If you want how often someone gets a hit and only a hit you have to go by at-bats." Exactly. It's called batting average. It's the number of times you get a hit divided by the number of at bats you have. And its massively, massively in favor of AG.

See, I can play the condescending game too.

It doesn't get anybody anywhere. And btw.... JC earlier admitted that experts "agree with you that he [Gonzo] should be the MVP, not so sure how many think he's been the better hitter." Umm, yeah... cuz fielding has so much to do with their decision. (2 errors to 4, in favor of guess who).

 

No moron, people seem to give the MVP to a player on a team that makes the playoffs.

The rest of your rant is complete Bullshit and shows you have a baseball IQ of your shoe size.

 

People associated with the game picked Gonzalez. As I look through expert analysis online, I've found 1 publication that picked Bautista: SI Kids. It makes sense that the kids magazine is infatuated with HRs. And then using SLG% to try to prove a point - which was originally made by HRs - is pretty damn circular.