Kentucky Derby 2009

Does John Velasquez picks up another ride now?

And I still like Dunkirk despite the Pletcher Derby drought.. He's got great blood lines (Unbridled's Song, son of Unbridled) and I like gray horses.

 

Prado's on Dunkirk, isn't he? that's another reason I like him.

 

Yeah, we didn't see enough Unbridled's Song in the 2008 Derby. And blood shows up better on grays, huh?

 

Friesan Fire.

Larry Jones has had two consecutive runners-up and trained the Oaks winner, Proud Spell, last year. This is his last Derby, or so he says. He's already gotten rid of all the two-year-olds in his barn.

He came under a lot of fire last year when Eight Belles was put down on the track, but he's a damn good trainer and a damn fine man. He's got a horse capable of winning it anyway, but it'd be the perfect close to his career if he finally got him one.

 

Eight Belles? Absolute tragedy.

But she was a tremendous filly and you can't deny the blood. Unbridled's Song won both the Florida Derby and Wood in '96 and was favorite in the '96 Derby, even with a quarter crack. Midshipman (also sired by Unbridled's Song) might have been a Derby favorite if he didn't kick himself in Dubai last month.

 

I agree 100-percent. Unbridled's Song's offspring do exactly what they're bred to do. The stallion had precocious speed along with structural unsoundness. His most successful foals have inherited his speed and his weaknesses. Midshipman among them.
Unbridled's Song hit himself before the 1996 Derby and faded. Midshipman hit himself in 2009 Derby prep and won't start.
A fashionable TB stallion could attract a full book of 200 mares each year. He'd become a legend if, over 20 years, 150 foals won a stakes race. Math ain't my thing, but that's a lot of horses -- almost all of which carry less value than a stray cat if they get daddy's crooked legs and not his speed.

 

The horses sired by Unbridled's Song seem to get both the speed and the crooked legs. Unbridled's Song kicked himself while winning the Wood Memorial in '96. Eight Belles' efficiency of motion was due in large part to the fact that she barely raised her hooves off the ground when she ran but she often stumbled over herself. Midshipman kicked himself, too.

 

I just saw that Friesan Fire ran 57 4/5 seconds over five furlongs in a workout yesterday (Monday). That got my attention. For the uninitiated, running 12 seconds per furlong is standard, so in this case, 1 minute would be a decent effort. Less than 58 seconds is pretty eye-opening.
I was leaning toward I Want Revenge after his impressive trip (well, not so impressive at the start) in the Wood Memorial. Now I don't know. This is one of the toughest fields I've seen in my few years following the sport. There isn't one real standout.
That said, I feel like you could get a good value on the board with a talented but overlooked horse.
I may have to dutch on those overlays.

 

I can't wait to see what the odds are on Chocolate Candy. They're likely to be 15-to-1, maybe 20-to-1, and that's a definite overlay. A win isn't out of the realm of possibility. I don't have my PPs in front of me, but I think the horse has been first or second in six of his last seven starts and his Beyers have improved in something like his last six straight races. If you have an extra $2 in your pocket and don't know where to put it, Chocolate Candy is my recommendation.

For those looking for odd name stories, Chocolate Candy is owned by Jenny Craig -- yes, THAT Jenny Craig -- and her husband. You would have thought they'd have named the horse Losing Pounds . . . Look At Me Now . . . lots of good choices.

 

Saddled by Desormaux, Hold Me Back looks like a great horse.

Pioneer of the Nile looks like the best of the bunch, though.

 

Fact he's never run on dirt scares the crap out of me.