Iowa Caucus running thread

Best case scenario for the Republicans is that Romney exceeds expectations and gets around 30% of the vote. Coupled with a major win in NH, that gives him all the momentum he needs to cruise against the token "Tea Party/Libertarian/I'm not Mitt" candidate left standing and start focusing on the general election.

Worst case scenario is that Romney finishes very close to Santorum (either second or close to a dead heat) with Gingrich recovering to close/pass Paul for 3rd and Huntsman getting double digits. This would give the Republicans four candidates would would feel like they have a shot of winning and Huntsman a feeling that he can pull off a miracle in NH (where he should play better than Iowa) to become relevant.

 

is right. Little Ricky's chance to come out on top in New Hampshire . . . 0%.

 

This seems absolutely ripe for a lawsuit -- single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation (ok scratch that one, it's iowa...) can all make a pretty clear case that they can't participate in this election. How has no one sued for this? Is it because these are party elections and not real federal elections?

 

And thank God for that...

 

I'm predicting that whomever wins Iowa will win it with the lowest margin ever. Romney could win it and "lose" at the same time if he doesn't crack 25 percent.

Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron when it comes to the GOP primary (and I'm talking about the media's fascination with it, not the candidates) - I just don't think you can apply it with this primary field and the voting dynamics of the GOP today.

 

The Republican Party is not an organ of the federal government. It can set whatever requirement it likes for people to vote.

Incidentally, single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation are prime examples of people the Republican Party doesn't give a flying flaming jack-shit about.

"Just tell the maid to watch the children and have the chauffeur drive you to the caucuses in the Rolls" would be their suggested solution to the problem

 

It's that, plus the cost of a lawsuit - not cheap to begin with, and definitely not cheap when you're taking on the political establishment, which has corporations and other wealthy entities behind it. And it's not like this is a personal injury case where an attorney would take it on a contingency basis - you'd have to pay the attorney win or lose.

 

I can't caucus tonight — I have a game to cover. Which is OK, I'm not really crazy about anyone in this group.

 

Michelle Bachmann, showing the tin ear for sports that gets so many politicians into trouble, decides now is the time to link herself to Tim Tebow with the ad, "What do Tim Tebow and Michelle Bachmann have in common?" The ad doesn't say, "Both had inexplicable early victories before crapping the bed down the stretch."

The person who puts this together follows the NFL a little bit, though, at least enough to throw in a reference to the Suh stomp.

 

Both will be done by the end of the week?

Neither can throw a pass?