If I had an Oscar nomination vote...

I still have to see a half-dozen films to concrete this, but here goes for now:

Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War

Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone (I haven't seen this, but based on the overwhelming consensus of people I respect saying that she is the frontrunner, I include her)
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Allison Janney, Juno
Catherine Keener, Into The Wild

Actor
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Christian Bale, Rescue Dawn
Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild
James McAvoy, Atonement
Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men

Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Ellen Page, Juno
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Keira Knightley, Atonement

Director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Joe Wright, Atonement
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Sean Penn, Into The Wild

Picture
No Country For Old Men
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
Into The Wild
Juno
*The Lives Of Others absolutely was on my Top 5, but it had been out for foreign release for most of 2006

 

No J.K. Simmons for Juno?

 

I think Depp gets one for Sweeney Todd.

 

Not predictions... just my vote.

I was back-and-forth among Simmons, Zahn and Hoffman for the final two spots.

I was SO impressed by Zahn, I wasn't whacking him.

Hoffman was such a force of nature in an otherwise low-impact viewing experience with CWW, I took him... by the slightest of margins


Also, I haven't seen American Gangster, Gone Baby Gone or Michael Clayton.

 

Julie Christie will win Best Actress for Away From Her. You can take that to the bank.

As reported in these pages by JR when the movie first came out last spring, her performance has Oscar written all over it, both for merit and sentimental reasons.

This is an astonishingly good movie, shot in five weeks on a ridiculous budget of something line $5 million, directed by Sarah Polley, based on a short story by Alice Munro and co-starring the veteran Gordon Pinsent.

If your idea of a great flick is things blowin' up, this is not for you.

 

I've loved Julie Christie for more than 30 years.

 

I'll second that.

 

As have I.
But, god above, did I hate "Atonement."

 

Why?

While I did think that the acting, save McAvoy and the teenaged accuser, was typically plastic, British, I thought it made up for it in story, cinematography and music/sound.

 

Brad Renfro for Best Supporting Avatar.

 

I didn't like the direction in 'Atonment.'
I didn't like the self-consciously artsy soft lighting or the self-consciously artsy montages.

 

My problem with Atonement is that I never bought any of the stuff that was happening. I figured it was all b.s. I've seen enough "epic love stories", seen enough stories about high-class women falling for the son of a servant . It was an interesting movie spotting how many cliched shots and camera angles were used to tell the story.

If I can guarantee one nomination it would be for the song from "Once."
Two: Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Three: Screenplay, Michael Clayton