I Love The Smell Of Panic In The Morning

PopeDirkBenedict · Oct 27, 2006

Flying Headbutt said:

PopeDirkBenedict said:

Here are the most recent polls (I took this off the National Review scorecard...not the most unbiased source, so if a reputable poll is missing, be sure to post it)

TN Corker: 45% Ford: 47% Hamilton Beattie (D) NEW 10/26
TN Corker: 48% Ford: 48% Survey USA NEW 10/25
TN Corker: 49% Ford: 44% LA Times/Bloomberg NEW 10/25
TN Corker: 47% Ford: 46% Rasmussen 10/24
TN Corker: 45% Ford: 43% Mason-Dixon 10/24
TN Corker: 49% Ford: 42% Zogby/WSJ 10/19
TN Corker: 46% Ford: 48% Rasmussen 10/11

http://www.nationalreview.com/boxscore/

When I look at the scorecard, I take out the best poll for each candidate and then look at the average. This comes out to about a 1-point Corker lead, which is probably about where the race is at. Corker has Ford on the defensive and has the momentum.

Using that method, here is where the races stand:

MD: Cardin up by 7 over Steele
MO: Talent up by less than 1 percent over McCaskill
MT: Tester up by 5 over Burns
NJ: Menendez up by 2 over Kean
OH: Brown up by 9 over DeWine
PA: Casey up by 9 over Santorum
RI: Whitehouse up by 7 over Chaffee
VA: Allen up by 2 over Webb

Maryland is the ultimate wildcard because we don't know how black voters are responding to Steele. Cardin beating Mfume discouraged a lot of black voters, so we don't know how many will turn out and how many will vote Steele. Chaffee and DeWine are toast. I think Burns is in the same boat as Webb -- they can still win, but they need to change the dynamics of the race and put Tester/Allen back on the defensive. Santorum/Casey feels almost like Truman/Dewey. Casey just wants to run out the clock, but Santorum is not going down without a fight. I think that race is either over early with Casey cruising or Santorum turns it into a nailbiter. Talent has done everything right: he's done excellent fund-raising, hasn't committed any gaffes on the stump, has campaigned hard, etc. I don't know if MJF's ad has altered the race that much: polling before the ad had Talent up by 2-3 and he's still up 2-3 in most polls.

Missouri, Tennessee and New Jersey will determine who controls the Senate.
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A couple of points. First off Lieberman has already said he's going to remain with the Dems. I suppose that could change but I doubt it.

Second, don't forget Jim Jeffords is an independent. It'll never be 50-50 until he leaves office. Right now it's 55-44-1. That's why the Dems need six seats.

In Maryland I think Cardin pulls it out, but not as well as he should. Steele has run an excellent campaign and Cardin isn't very inspiring. Steele is rather empty of ideas, or at least ideas he's willing to share with the public because he knows that the minute he starts sounding like a Republican he'll lose votes. His skin color will play well in the DC burbs and get him votes that someone exactly like him but white would never in a million years get. Steele and Cardin debated the other day and weren't exactly friendly, and each had their share of screw ups. The third party guy (who incidentally is running on the Green Party and Libertarian Party's ticket, who'd a thunk it?) might end up playing a bigger role than most think. Ultimately Cardin squeaks it out I think. Expect numerous polling problems and results that don't come out until the next days after.
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If Steele pulls it out, he immediately moves to the front of the line to be the GOP VP nominee in 08.

Bubbler · Oct 27, 2006

Condescending ads? Tennessee? How 'bout this?

Take HOMME, a package of ...

I return to your regularly scheduled, and interesting, political breakdown.

Ben_Hecht · Oct 27, 2006

Steele's not winning.

Santorum's not winning.

Dems will gain in Senate, obviously . . . but not quite enough. Doesn't bother me, much --
so long as they win the House.

Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L) · Oct 27, 2006

The American people abhor a vacuum.

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I Love The Smell Of Panic In The Morning

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I Love The Smell Of Panic In The Morning

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