I Love The Smell Of Panic In The Morning

1. Corker vs. Ford is a close race. Not comfortable for either candidate by any means.
2. Dixiehack - the ad serves a GOTV effort, so it doesn't matter if it changed any minds. It's meant to energize the base.
3. Ford's response was just okay. He could have already put Corker away but he has made a few missteps by his mild response to this ad and by the stunt pulled crashing the Corker campaign earlier in the week.

 

I'll be honest, I probably wouldn't have had a problem with the ad from a racial standpoint to begin with. I mean, after it's pointed out, yeah, I can sorta see the issue. But really, I could've watched that thing a 100 times and not thought of it as anything other than stupid.

And racist or not, you can't argue that it's a stupid, stupid ad. In fact, pretty much all of Corker's ads are stupid. Apparently, the only issues he's found with Ford is that he's a good looking guy on TV (whatever the hell that means), he's spent some time in DC (whatever the hell that has to do with anything) and he's accepted money from people associated with Playboy (what straight man in this country isn't?). He should lose just for running these dumbass ads.

 

I distinctly remember seeing at least part of that ad this week. I just remember the porn money guy. When was it taken off the air?

Oh, and just for dog...

"He looks good on TV"

 

Here are the most recent polls (I took this off the National Review scorecard...not the most unbiased source, so if a reputable poll is missing, be sure to post it)

TN Corker: 45% Ford: 47% Hamilton Beattie (D) NEW 10/26
TN Corker: 48% Ford: 48% Survey USA NEW 10/25
TN Corker: 49% Ford: 44% LA Times/Bloomberg NEW 10/25
TN Corker: 47% Ford: 46% Rasmussen 10/24
TN Corker: 45% Ford: 43% Mason-Dixon 10/24
TN Corker: 49% Ford: 42% Zogby/WSJ 10/19
TN Corker: 46% Ford: 48% Rasmussen 10/11

http://www.nationalreview.com/boxscore/

When I look at the scorecard, I take out the best poll for each candidate and then look at the average. This comes out to about a 1-point Corker lead, which is probably about where the race is at. Corker has Ford on the defensive and has the momentum.

Using that method, here is where the races stand:

MD: Cardin up by 7 over Steele
MO: Talent up by less than 1 percent over McCaskill
MT: Tester up by 5 over Burns
NJ: Menendez up by 2 over Kean
OH: Brown up by 9 over DeWine
PA: Casey up by 9 over Santorum
RI: Whitehouse up by 7 over Chaffee
VA: Allen up by 2 over Webb

Maryland is the ultimate wildcard because we don't know how black voters are responding to Steele. Cardin beating Mfume discouraged a lot of black voters, so we don't know how many will turn out and how many will vote Steele. Chaffee and DeWine are toast. I think Burns is in the same boat as Webb -- they can still win, but they need to change the dynamics of the race and put Tester/Allen back on the defensive. Santorum/Casey feels almost like Truman/Dewey. Casey just wants to run out the clock, but Santorum is not going down without a fight. I think that race is either over early with Casey cruising or Santorum turns it into a nailbiter. Talent has done everything right: he's done excellent fund-raising, hasn't committed any gaffes on the stump, has campaigned hard, etc. I don't know if MJF's ad has altered the race that much: polling before the ad had Talent up by 2-3 and he's still up 2-3 in most polls.

Missouri, Tennessee and New Jersey will determine who controls the Senate.

 

In isolation, the Playboy thing is stupid. But consider that Ford has invoked God more times than Ned Flanders in his ads, trying to appeal to evangelicals that he is one of them. The Playboy issue really hurt his God-fearing image.

 

I think McCaskill will get a lot of swing votes in Missouri. Some people are fed up with Talent.

 

True dat. And the dems must win all three to take control of the senate. Mizzou looks good for McKaskil (D) and Menendez (D) has rebounded just in time in N.J. It will most likely come down to Tennessee. I'm predicting Dem pickups in Mizzou and N.J., with Corker squeezing out Tennessee, leaving a 50-50 senate with Cheney as the tiebreaker. That's unless Lieberman decides to go ahead and vote for republican leadership.

Here's a nice visual:

http://www.campaignnetwork.org/ElectionMap.aspx

 

PoO:

I don't dare hazard a guess in Missouri. If you put a gun to my head, I'd pick Talent just because he seems to be holding a slight lead in most polls, but I would put no money on it.

I agree that Menendez is leading in New Jersey, but we still don't know how the marriage ruling will affect that race. Both oppose the FMA, so I don't know if NJ values voters will skip that race entirely or vote Kean because he has an R after his name.

I also wonder if the Senate is 50-50, will the GOP offer Lieberman the Armed Services Chair in exchange for him caucusing with them?

 

I wouldn't put anything past Holy Joe. Everything I've read says it's even in Mizzou. My thinking is the stem cell stir makes voters break for McCaskil, but flip a coin...

 

Talent may have a slight lead in the polls, but I've talked to a lot of people from home and they're just unsure at what Talent has really done with his time in the Senate.

He lost to the worst governor Missouri has ever had. Then, he barely beat Carnahan in a special election. He might barely win this, but with the recent problems of the GOP, I still think McCaskill will squeak this one out.

That being said, I just saw fundraising numbers for the race and I could really be wrong when it comes right down to it based on amount of money available to spend on the race.