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HEISMAN: Troy's Myth

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Jimmy Olson, Nov 16, 2006.

  1. Jimmy Olson

    Jimmy Olson Member

    I have a Heisman Vote, and unlike many, I take it very seriously so I've done some homework, rather than listen to the talking heads who have been selling
    Troy Smith down our throats since the beginning of the season. (Ok, ABC/ESPN/Disney has the Big11 conference arrangement and they need to appease their shareholders.)

    I wanted to dig in and do my homework and after seeing Ray Rice of Rutgers, I was very impressed.

    As I sat down and found some astonishing facts about the main QB contenders for the trophy and wanted to garner some opinions of my brethren.

    [note: some notes are random, so bare with me]
    Feel welcome to share any of my data with your readers as your own "research".

    Smith 11 games - 170-256-4 26TDs 2162 yds 196 ypg 1 int/64 att 2.3 TD/g
    Quinn 10 games - 230-357-4 29TDs 2786 yds 278 ypg 1 int/89+ att 2.9 TD/g

    Look at common opponents to date.

    Versus Penn State ?
    Smith ? 115 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints;
    Quinn ? 287 yards, 3 TDs, O Ints.

    Versus Michigan State ?
    Smith ? 234 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints
    Quinn ? 319 yards, 5 TDs, 1 Int.

    Totals against Both combined
    Smith 349 yards 3 TDs, 2 Ints, QB rating of 141.40
    Quinn 606 yards, 8 TDs, 1 Int. QB rating of 167

    Smith has only gone over 200 yards in half their games, with no 300 yard games.
    Quinn has been over 200 yards every game, with three over 300.

    Quinn's worst game is better than twice Smith's worst game in yardage, and his worst game is only 61 yards short of Smith's best game.

    You can make the case that someone other than BQ might deserve the Heisman (i.e. the Colt from Hawaii perhaps with all his stats against the Utah States) but you can't make an honest argument that Smith ought to be ahead of Quinn.

    Before you mention Colt McCoy, consider Texas to date - opponents rank in terms of passing Defense - Avg. of 73.2 (I arbitrarily assigned a number of 150 to Division I-AA Sam Houston State, as I could not find a ranking for them). By years end, there avg. will be 68.60 v. OSU's 68.08 and ND's 64.

    McCoy had 12 of his 27 TD's against Rice (107 in pass def.); Iowa State (101); Sam Houston State (??? - I assigned 150 to them); and Baylor (95).

    20 of 27 of McCoy's TD passes have come against the likes of North Texas, Rice, Sam Houston State, Iowa State, Baylor.

    Back to the Quinn vs. Troy's Myth Comparison:

    Smith only has one less interception on 100 less attempts.
    Quinn is less than 70 attempts away from breaking the consecutive
    attempts w/o INT record.

    Troy Smith took money from a booster. His name litter's the police blotter since his Sr. year of H.S. and also has been troubled off the field at OSU (fights and cheating the rules.) The argument is that he is a "good kid". The blotter doesn't seem to reflect that.

    Yes, I understand that he paid his dues, sat out two important games, etc etc. At the same time, I'd imagine that at least some number of Heisman voters are thinking "once bitten twice shy" - at the very least, one would imagine that a number of these voters would prefer to vote for someone
    other than Troy Smith if given a reasonable opportunity to do so.

    I would think this effect would be particularly strong in those most removed from the game (i.e. one of the only things they know about Troy Smith is that he took money), and thus that the effect of this thought process on voting calculations taken now, which I would imagine are biased towards those who follow college football the closest, would be minimalized.

    In other words - I would not be surprised to see that the number of votes that go for Troy Smith would be smaller than expected, simply due to a non-random distribution of voters who might penalize him for accepting money from a booster.
  2. Jimmy Olson

    Jimmy Olson Member


    Seems like this year (and the last few) it's not a question of someone doing something spectacular to "win" the Heisman, but rather players not doing anything to "lose" it.

    Smith is a good player, but it's not like he's done anything special this season in any of his games. Quinn, OTOH, has put ND on his back more than a couple times this season.

    The difference? Quinn had one bad game in which his team lost. Smith has had a bad game or two, but no L.

    That, to me, is a bullshit distinction.

    To me,the Heisman has become a joke.

    It really isn't for the "best" college player, it is for 1) an offensive player(if you are a rb or qb), 2) who is on a top 10 team which is necessary to put up the numbers necesary to "impress" the voters, 3)gets adopted by the media, and 4) greatly influenced by regional voting.

    Individal honors are great but it is all a popularity contest anyway, hugely affected by personal bias one way or the other.

    Since when does a player have to be on an undefeated team to win the Heisman? Only 15 of the 73 winners have played for an udnefeated team. I find it strange that that is what is holding Brady back this year, especially when you compare overall stats and stats against similar opponents.

    I'm old enough to remember seeing some greats play, but don't really know a whole lot about the Heisman races back then. But how did players like Roger Staubach, Gary Beban, Steve Spurrier, Jim Plunkett, Pat Sullivan, Steve Owens, etc. win the Heisman trophy? By today's mindset which of these guys would have won? All played on good teams, though not one was a serious NC
    contender. There wasn't the media scrutiny, or hype, that there is now. What the big push for these guys? Were they truly the best players that season? I'm just curious as to what the important factors were or what made these guys stand out.

    Remember when Peyton Manning was a senior having a tear up year? About half way thru that season, the someone somewhere had some strange idea that that year was going to be different, and different Heisman winner. Then Charles Woodson's name came up and it just started to get some momentum. Charles ended up winning it.

    This year seems to be going that way. The talking heads just seems to have a position that Troy is the Heisman winner.

    The USC guys temporarily painted some luster back on the trophy. Not only are they winning the Heisman, they're going at the top of the draft and having some success in the NFL.

    Is Troy Smith actually Gino Torretta? Being the starting QB for the undefeated #1 team often has its Heisman privileges regardless of how good you really are. Torretta wasn't one of the top 3-4 players on his own team--but their defense kept them undefeated through the regular season,
    and Corso got the bandwagon rolling. Smith has Ted Ginn, Jr. to thank, a great running back to hand the ball off to, and perhaps the most valuable player on the buck guy team, Gonzales.
  3. Jimmy Olson

    Jimmy Olson Member


    Popularity vs. Stats
    Last year it was a battle between Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinart and I think it's safe to say those were the best three football players in the country.

    This year there was really no obvious, blow your socks off, kind of star. Quinn was the default choice, as was Peterson and Smith. Peterson's chances took a big hit when Bomar got the boot and his injury sealed the

    Last year it was a debate between if Reggie Bush's highlights were better than Vince Young's highlights. This year it seems to be more of a stat race, with W/L record playing a huge role.

    If it were strictly a popularity contest, Quinn would win going away as he is far more popular nationally than Smith. I bet 70% of the country outside of Ohio couldn't pick Troy Smith's picture out of a collection of the
    Ohio State starters.

    ND's average pass defense faced: 64.8 (65)
    OSU's average pass defense faced: 75.25 (75)

    Looks like Brady's got the edge there. So basically we get to hear incessant talk about how OSU was so far ahead that Smith didn't have to throw for a ton of yards/tds. Last I checked, doesn't that mean he's (by definition) not the "most outstanding player" in college football?

    How would the numbers look if you gave Smith the weak Notre Dame linemen and gave Quinn the strong OSU line? We all know that Troy Smith is a very capable runner, but Quinn has 2 TDs to Smith's one and Quinn's run against Navy was very impressive.

    Troy Smith:
    Penn State - 12 for 22, 115 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (this is a good game?)
    Michigan State - 15 for 22, 234 yards, 2 TDS

    Brady Quinn:
    Penn State - 25 for 36, 287 yards, 3 TDs
    Michigan State - 20 for 36, 319 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT

    During the middle of the season, most of the Heisman balloting discussion -- coming from media members who don't necessarily even have a vote -- was about discovering new talents. Guys like Steve Slaton, Ray Rice, Garrett Wolfe and Calvin Johnson were bumped up in the list because it made for interesting
    discussion. Now that things are getting closer to the actual vote, the novelty
    candidates (sophomores, mid-major players, and wide receivers who don't return kicks/punts) have fallen off and the original two pre-season candidates are left. The final big game left on their schedule will likely
    determine who will win.

    As for the Heisman voting themselves, people are really complaining about media bias and how media members hate ND/Weis/Catholics and therefore are putting Smith over Quinn. But I really think those cries are a bit verly-dramatic. The balloting is broken down into six Sectional regions, with each region only getting 145 votes.

    Meaning that while Smith may outvote Quinn in the Mid-west (and possibly southwest after the Fiesta Bowl/Texas game), Quinn has a pretty good shot in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Far West (assuming a strong showing against USC)

    An example of this kind of split is the 2003 award. Jason White finished 2nd in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Mid-West sections to Larry Fitzgerald. But White took the South, Southwest, and Far West sections by enough votes to capture the Heisman.

    Yes, guys like Dennis Dodd apparently do have a Heisman vote (here's a list of supposed voters), but for every Dodd, Mark May, Brent Musberger, and Craig James on the list, there is a Kirk Herbstriet, Tim Brown, Paul Hornung, Johnny Lattner, John Huarte, Beano Cook, Pat Haden, Don Criqui, and Jason Kelly to balance
    them out.

    Some of the national voters may have a bigger soapbox now, but their vote isn't any more powerful than anyone else's. The eventual winner will come from how local sports writers from various papers around the country and other former Heisman winners view the race.
  4. Jimmy Olson

    Jimmy Olson Member

    Troy's Myth - Part IV (final)

    Here's how the Illini opponent QBs have performed, not in order -

    Penn State 18-34-1 1TD 144 yds
    Wisconsin 15-26-1 2TDs 217 yds
    Syracuse 9-18-1 2TDs 167 yds
    Rutgers 14-25-1 1TD 145 yds
    E Illinois 12-22-2 2TDs 187 yds (yes Eastern Illinois)
    MSU 17-27-0 0TDs 187 yds
    Iowa 17-27-1 1TD 190 yds
    Indiana 20-39-0 0TDs 240 yds
    Ohio U 9-20-1 0TDs 114 yds

    tOSU - Heisman Trophy winner Smith:
    13-23-1 0TDs 108 yds

    And remember Quinn has played one less game than Smith and will likely pass for at least 1000 more yards.
    Quinn has a better completion % as well despite little help from a weak offensive line. He has 3 come from behind wins this year alone even ignoring his huge body of career work (one of which - MSU - was into a 40 mph freezing rain all 4th quarter....Smith could not even manage a spiral in such conditions). And Quinn's only bad game against Michigan includes an INT where he hit his TE in the numbers with his pass and the TE "volleyballed" it to the defense.

    And again, who do the NFL scouts all tell us is the best QB in college football? If you are proud that OU's qb beat out Michael Vick for the Heisman a few years ago (I think he is now selling cars in Norman) and hate ND so much that you can't be fair, then go ahead and vote for Troy Smith, but if you are honest...Brady Quinn is clearly the best player in college football this year
    and is deserving of the Heisman trophy.

    OSU's opponents have been no stronger than ND's in the past 4 weeks, and were significantly weaker than ND's in the first 5 games. Oh and lest we forget, Smtih has had 3 games versus MAC teams to ND's none.

    While Smith has been sacked less in part due to his great mobility, it is clear that Quinn has a less reliable offensive line. The fact that he has put up these numbers without getting the same quality protection from the O-line from which Smith benefits, ought to weigh in Quinn’s favor.

    Next, take a look at the rankings of OSU’s opponents and Notre Dame’s opponents based upon each opponents NCAA rank for PASSING DEFENSE - The average rank of the pass defensefor opponents of OSU is 73.44. For Notre Dame it is slightly better at 72.0. If we were to project forward to the end of the
    season, based upon current passing defense rankings, OSU’s opponents average (cumulative season average, not just the next 3 opponents) ? OSU ? 74.27 (Northwestern’s pass D is ranked 80; Michigan is ranked 76);
    Notre Dame’s opponent ranking in pass defense actual gets tougher to an cumulative average of 64 (Air Force is ranked 49; Army is ranked 21; and USC’s pass defense is ranked 50 - these rankings are really surprising, but I obtained them from ncaasports.org).

    Craig Krenzel did not have to put up Heisman numbers, his team went undefeated, and noone wanted to invite him to NY. Why would Smith be differnt? Potential?

    The fact is, it's a lot closer than DISNEY would like to have you believe, because there seems to be a hard campaign from ESPN / ABC for Troy's Myth.

  5. BYH

    BYH Active Member

    Just ask Whitlock what he thinks. He knows it all.
  6. Jimmy Olson

    Jimmy Olson Member

    I think you spelled, "He ate it all" incorrectly. :)
  7. Starman

    Starman Well-Known Member

    Yeah, just another example of the media's pervasive anti-Notre Dame bias. ::) ::)
  8. Twoback

    Twoback Active Member

    If you're doing this by stats, you should have your Heisman vote taken from you, preferably by force.
    Stats lead jokes like Jason White to the podium. If you can't see with your own eyes that Troy Smith is a special player, you shouldn't vote.
  9. slappy4428

    slappy4428 Active Member

    I think when you discuss Heisman myth, you need to start the conversation with Notre Dame.
    Not that Quinn's stats arent legit (as opposed to Paul Hornung, say), but Quinn gets through the door and a couple of votes because he goes to Notre Dame and not, as an example, Penn, or Georgia Tech, or Kansas.
  10. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member

    Irish play in Piscataway a week ago, they get beat.

    Dame's fortunate USC's sorta vulnerable, this year, but Weis better come up with
    some extraordinary shit to make THAT happen.
  11. Jimmy Olson

    Jimmy Olson Member

    First off, Ray Rice is getting my vote unless he slips up.

    Troy's Myth may be a special player, yet the only time I've seen him be special is to make up for his own mistakes that have cost him games.

    Are you saying that Brady Quinn is NOT an impressive player? I think we've seen him put his team on his back more than a couple of times. I do believe that if sMyth plays behind Notre Dame's line, he runs for his life. Put Quinn behind the Buck Guy's line and he has even more amazing production.

    Frankly, I doubt that "Kordell" Smyth won't play a down at QB in the NFL. If he plays QB in the pros, it's in the CFL. Many pro GMs have given me that impression, it's not one of my own. If you're telling me that you know more about player selection than the guys who do it for a living, perhaps you should simply hand over your keyboard and your credentials.

    If Quinn were at The Ohio Land Grant University, he's all world. He still doesn't get my vote.

    What I do find unique is that he puts up stellar numbers against less than stellar talent and the Mickey Mouses at Disney call him on it. The same day Troy's Myth puts up mediocre numbers against less than stellar talent, "he is a special player".

    Troy's Myth wins this simply because the Disney types have handed it to him.
  12. armageddon

    armageddon Active Member

    You keep bringing up NFL potential. Why? It should not be in the equation for the Heisman. I'm a Heisman voter and I'd consider myself an idiot if I based my vote on what NFL scouts told me about a player's pro potential. Would you vote on All-American teams based on NFL potential, too? And twoback is correct. If you cast your vote based on stats alone, good grief.

    Has it ever crossed your mind that one player is coached by an offensive "genius" who fancies a pro-style passing game and the other is coached by a guy who sometimes appears as if he tries to win games, 3-0? My vote remains open but I suspect Smith will lead his team to victory over Michigan this week, something the Mighty Qunn could not do earlier this season. Now if Smith sucks and OSU loses, that will change things. But I don't see that happening.
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