Hall of Fame Poll

We can go back and forth on that until we're blue in the face. I know you're big on the character end of it.

Sorry, Manky. Belle has to go off the ballot.

 

Dale Murphy was on his last leg, but he was traded 14 months before that team won the first of its 14 consecutive division titles. It would have been nice for Murphy, the franchise and the fans for him to be any sort of contributor to a World Series team.

 

Albert Belle was an asshole but he played on winning teams, unlike Dick Allen. For about three years (1994-1996) Albert was the most feared hitter on some of the best hitting teams ever. He's also the all-time leader in smashed thermostats.

 

Not before Kingman

 

I should have added him to the Hall of Fame poll.

Mattingly is also the only True Yankee to never win a ring.

 

The problem with Mattingly is that his prime was so short.

From 1984-87, Don Mattingly was projecting out to be not just a HOFer, but an inner-circle HOFer. The kind of HOFer to which no questions would ever be asked.

His prime ended in 1987; he was in decline from 1988 on. I believe that it was in 1987 that Mattingly began having back problems; his OWP took a dip and he missed 20 games or so. The next year, 1988, he dropped to 12 fewer HRs, and he stabilized at the level of a good (but not quite great) first baseman for the next 2 years.

After 1989, Mattingly NEVER touched greatness. His OWP was in the .500s or less. Mattingly's 1990 season was, really, below replacement level for a first baseman; it was only his past track record and the never-to-be-realized hopes for a comeback that got him more chances to be a regular.

Don Mattingly is a modern day Pete Reiser. Reiser was an all-out hustling ballplayer who was a truly great player in 1941 and 1942. If WWII had not come, Reiser would have posted a few more outstanding seasons to where he would have about the same level of peak value case Mattingly has. Reiser, arguably, did less than Mattingly at his peak, mainly due to injuries, and it was the very style of Reiser's play that allowed him to be memorable that caused so many of his injuries. Mattingly had a better career than Reiser, but not enough better to make him a HOFer.

And, as I've probably said before, if Mattingly, why not Will Clark? Indeed, why not Norm Cash? I personally disagree with any ranking system that puts Mattingly ahead of either of those guys, and particularly Clark, who was an exact contemporary.

Regarding McGwire, we are talking about putting a guy in the HoF who only has 1600+ hits. Tough to do much better than that when you only get 7600+ PA's. He had to have a phenomenal HR rate to even get in the discussion. When looking at the record you can see that historically McGwire is an okay choice for the HoF. He is about an middle-of-the-1B-pack if you look at the current list of HoF 1B's. If you look at him amongst 1B's of the last 25 years it is a little stickier. Since we are ignoring steroids is he better than McGriff, Clark, Bagwell, Palmeiro, F. Thomas, Jason Giambi, Jim Thome. And how many of those guys are you willing to induct?

To me if steroids are ignored I would induct him. But he isn't a Top Tier guy.

Maris was a pretty good slugger who caught fire with HRs in one year, and will be famous forever for that. Even in that one season he wasn't a truly great hitter, and wasn't close to being the best hitter on his team because of Mickey Mantle. He will be forever remembered but he's not close to a HOF level player. I'm glad the HOF hasn't selected him, it shows that they at least attempt to be consistent in this case by choosing the best players rather than those who are just famous.

Lou Whitaker was the best second baseman in the AL for an extended period of time. His offensive stats are not out of line for a HOF second baseman, and he won three (3) Gold Gloves.

Trammell and Whitaker should both be in, IMO.

Raines was truly a superstar in the 1980s. He was an above-average LF at best in the 1990s, missing time with injuries, bouncing from team to team.

Raines was a natural leadoff hitter, but he was moved out of the leadoff role in the late 80s by the Expos. This caused Raines' stolen bases to drop somewhat, although some of that was a function of wear and tear. Bill James suggested that the change in lineup position was one that was confusing to Raines, and one that did not take maximum advantage of his talents.

Had Raines not bounced from team to team, and had he not left the leadoff role, Raines would have been remembered as the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of the NL. Raines missed Lou Brock's SB record by 130 steals; had he stayed in the NL his entire career and stayed in the leadoff position, he may well have broken Brock's NL record for career steals. That would have given him a huge talking point to go with his stats that only sabermetric types seem to love. It also would have taken him out of Rickey Henderson's shadow to some degree.

Indeed, much of Raines' problem with the HOF voters is that he played in the same era as Henderson, was the same type of player as Henderson, yet Henderson has held so many important records, while Raines holds none.

Belle was essentially the same player as Kiner, with a similar level of dominance in a shortish career.

Belle's peak was in the strike years of 1994-95, so you have to adjust for that. Kiner's peak was in a barely-integrated league, which ought to be a consideration in the analysis. Kiner played in a home ballpark intentionally modified to cater to him.

Kiner home .288/.414/.593
Kiner road .269/.381/.503

By comparison

Belle home .302/.375/.580
Belle road .288/.364/.549

That's a much more normal sort of split.

Kiner has the narrative of the 7 HR crowns. Belle has the narrative of being a pain to the writers. Kiner was elected by the BBWAA in his final year of eligibility, just creeping over 75% with a total I strongly suspect was finagled to get him in (the HOF still was counting votes in-house). Belle was two-and-done.

Colavito and Strawberry have similar career value to them, but their briefer and lower peaks leave them a bit behind.

Hershiser, who had a good career, isn't even close to HoF caliber to me. He had a nice five year run spread over six seasons (1986 was not good). His career ERA+ of 122 if good but not exceptiona as is his career RSAA of 124. From age 31 on he was just "a guy".

Cone is another matter. His RSAA of 228 is very good. His ERA+ of 120. That's almost identical totals to Don Drysdale (221/121). However it is somewhat below my HoF standard of 250/125. Also, Kevin Appier totals are 225/120. He's in a group of pitchers where some make it and some don't. I tend to say "No", but wouldn't be offended if he made it.

Regarding Allen, he may well have been the best player in baseball for his first few years in baseball. He was, arguably, the best offensive player in the NL, and he played third base well enough to hold the position. He was never recognized for this in his early years because of the number of marquee players still in their primes because of his race (to some degree), and because of the controversy he generated by some of his behavior. (Some of this was, truly, not Allen's fault, but some of it was, and he did have a problem with alcohol.)

I go back and forth over the issue of Allen and the HOF, but I'm pretty much a Dick Allen guy now. He helped his teams win; Bill James' allegation that Allen never helped his teams win is simply not true, IMO. His peak value is sufficient to merit HOF selection; he'd be in already if he were less controversial. I hate to put it this way, but he had a career about the length of Jim Rice's and he was so far ahead of Jim Rice, ability-wise, to where it's fair to say "If Rice, why not Allen?". Indeed, Allen is getting to where he's a highest common denominator case; no one who has done what Allen did is NOT in the HOF.

 

Gehrig, that is a Hall of Fame post, first of all.

Second of all, I would have a tough time holding Raines's team-hopping at the end of his career against him too much. It all happened essentially after he was 40. His stays on the White Sox and Yankees were both relatively extended and solid. This is not Fred McGriff. This is Jim Thome. This is a guy who was a perennial All-Star for one team, the Expos, and was an above-average player for another, Chicago, for five seasons.

Does anyone know why BR has his dWAR so low? He was right at the lead for N.L. putouts and assists for left fielders almost every season he played.

 

Belle also had the corked bat thing, right?

 

Do people care about that? Honest question.

 

I do. But I am not HOF voter.

Cheating is cheating IMO.

 

I would think that if you're borderline it would have to be a factor.

 

Interesting.

As opposed to PED's, it seems like the general consensus on bat-corking or ball-doctoring has been, "If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'!"