Good time to invest in the markets?

Not that many of us have a ton of money to play with, but let's say hypothetically one got a buyout from their employer ... not much, couple thousand or so ... is this the biggest bargain sale of all time? Or is this thing going to just sink lower and lower and lower before it straightens out?

I'm torn.

 

If you can...
1/3 real estate
1/3 bonds
1/3 stocks

I'd throw 1/2 into stocks and 1/2 into bonds.

 

It's a good time. But, more than ever, it will require some patience.

I just worked out my IRA for '09, hoping the market will rise at some point during the year, meaning I bought low. Regardless, it's done and I still have enough to Super Size my Big Mac combo - barely.

 

I was a stock analyst and broker for 25 years and am a professional investor. Not a day trader. An investor.

Goodyear offers as much upside as any stock in North America. It's trading at a level that seems to suggest nobody is ever going to buy tires again. They have 19 billion in revenue and 250 million shares outstanding....that's $76/ share in revenue. Their input costs have plummeted, leaving plenty of room to drop retail prices and still make good profit margins. Labor contract expiring this year and it's probable that they can extract concessions.

Read their annual report and make your decision. If the system blows up, most assets will be worthless and if not, you have bought a well respected company at multi year lows and will be financially rewarded.

 

My dad, a retired stockbroker, says the only stocks he's glad to have right now are McDonalds and WalMart. (I said that was because poor people always have to eat and shop) I also asked him if he thought it was going to get better and his response was something like "Shit, I don't know." And he's usually low-key and "buy low" about this stuff.

 

In terms of the broad markets, I woiuld only ask one pertinent question, and all you long-view
guys will know precisely what I'm getting at . . .


Do you think anything close to all the bad news is out, yet?


I do not.

 

Ben

I agree the bad news is not close to ending. If the sub-prime and credit crunch was an indicator of a poor economy, wait until all the commercial real estate loans and business go belly up. With people losing jobs and tightening their belts, retail spending will dip. Restaurants and retail shops will fail and we will see more empty strip malls across the country. When tenants can't pay, the owners of the properties won't be able to pay the banks.

I would stay away from companies that own real estate. YUM brands used to own a lot of thbuildings and sites where there was a Pizza Hut or Taco Bell. Now the buildings are leased. When you see a gas station close down its usually company owned station that EXXON or Chevron has decided its better to sell the land.


A cycle of shit that will last a few years.

 

Look at it this way: Things will eventually improve or keep sliding to shit and we'll be slitting each other's throats for food.

So, you've got a sporting chance, haven't you?

 

Hey Punk, come here for a second.

*twirling knife behind my back*

 

We've had these threads here for the past year. We've had posters here swear that certain financials were a good buy in 2008, because they were "so low". Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The overall market is not a "bargain" right now. These were headlines from Friday.

WSJ: Circuit City to Liquidate, Meaning 30,000 Job Losses

Bloomberg: GE Capital May Cut as Many as 11,000 Jobs This Year

WSJ: Pfizer to Cut Up to 2,400 Jobs

WSJ: Google Plans 100 Layoffs of Recruiters

AP: AMD to cut 1,100 workers, 9 pct of staff

Reuters: Hertz to cut more than 4,000 jobs

Bloomberg: WellPoint Cuts 1,500 Jobs, Blames ‘State of Economy’

AP: Blue Cross Blue Shield to cut up to 1,000 jobs

Tampa Bay Business Journal: Report: Layoffs looming at Clear Channel


Lower stock prices do not mean "bargains".


Bonds? Wait until the munis start to default - another tsunami in waiting.

 

I am waiting for Ragu's next investment tip

 

there is no question that if you have money to spare, and can be patient, now is a GREAT time to buy. by 'have money to spare' i mean 'have money that you can afford to lose'

just do your homework. basing your buying on the company's mission - ie., assuming wal-mart stock is a better buy than sak's - is only the beginning. research the fundamentals of the stock, too.