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Gas to hit $4 a gallon in August

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Mmmm_Donuts, Jul 16, 2006.

  1. Armchair_QB

    Armchair_QB Well-Known Member

    That's probably where some of the dissent comes from but I doubt it's where all of it comes from.

    Looking at those charts, and as Idaho pointed out 1950 is essentially "today" in the grand scheme of things, you see a pattern of peaks and valleys. Yeah it's warmer than it was a few years ago there's no disputing that. But for whatever reason there are people on one side of the argument who act like it's never going to cool down. They cite the data that shows it's been getting warmer over the last 20-25 years but refuse to aknowledge longer-range data that shows the Earth has heated and cooled in fairly regular patterns.
  2. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    So it doesn't make you pause to see carbon dioxide levels from 1950 onward (the first chart) being higher than anything before 1950?
  3. Armchair_QB

    Armchair_QB Well-Known Member

    I wouldn't say that. But again, It can't continue to go up. Nothing ever does.

    Except gas prices...
  4. Sorry, boys, but the "It's just a second in geologic time so forgive our 56-year old data" explanation doesn't cut it.
    As has been made clear, there are charts that take us right up to the actual present that prove otherwise. Moreover, climatology -- particularly the study of climate change over the years -- barely existed in 1950. It is carefully refined here in 2006 and every reputable independent practitioner of it says the same thing.
  5. JayFarrar

    JayFarrar Well-Known Member

    Them sir, are fighting words.
    Working from is ALWAYS the most productive and efficient way to work.
    I'd call you names and curse you, but that ain't cool.
  6. Doom and gloom

    Doom and gloom Active Member

    George Bush here.

    My oil buddies are having quite a laugh with this.  Talked with T. Boone Pickens today in his 10 mpg limo. He said we'll wait, then when we hear the really desperate screams at $5 a gallon, Alaskan drilling will be approved, we'll shake hands, cash in our chips and drop it down to a, say, modest $2.70 a gallon. And if my successor gets the automaker union's support, it will be down about $1.50 a gallon and people will say "whew, times are good again."  And there won't be a gal-darned refinery built.  And in that way, everyone wins.  The oil buddies win, including my good friends in Saudi Arabia, the consumer wins and the environmentalists win. Everyone gets something. That's the American way.

    Now, back to the war on terror....those people, they hate our freedoms......
  7. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    How much profit does a typical big oil company make on a gallon of gas? I have never seen an estimate of more than 10 cents and most peg it around 4-8 cents. Lets assume the oil companies hear the populist cries and say, "You know what, we can halve our profits and solve the current price crisis." How much has gas gone down? Woohoo -- now we are only paying 2.93/gallon. Even if the oil companies only made 1 cent per gallon, our wallets are minimally impacted. Oil company profits are not the problem...this nation's reluctance to acquiesce to supply-and-demand curves and our inability (both in our leaders failing to lead and us not demanding that they lead) to force the issue of alternative energy sources are exponentially more responsible for high gas prices than oil company profits.
  8. Doom and gloom

    Doom and gloom Active Member

    That doesn't account for a huge price of the gallon.
  9. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    How about the high price of crude oil, federal/state/local taxes, the cost of taking crude oil and turning into gasoline and the cost of getting the gasoline from point A to point B? As someone pointed out earlier, a good rule of thumb is $1 at the pump for every $25 a barrel of crude costs. Crude barrels are going for $78. I'll let you do the math.
  10. JRoyal

    JRoyal Well-Known Member

    Not sure how much of this goes straight into their pockets, but the USA Today article linked earlier said, "Oil prices account for half of the retail price of a gallon of gasoline."

    Now, since oil is selling at an all-time high, and the amount it takes to get the stuff out of the ground hasn't really gone up much in the last few years, I'd have to say they're making a decent amount off the higher prices.

    And Ragu, the problem is that the futures market is all about speculation. In this case, the people driving the market, looking for a profit, are using every excuse they can to speculate that their will be a shortage. And the people who drive the oil market are the oil executives. We understand how the market works. This is way past leveling off price spikes. I have a pretty good grasp on economics, and I'm sorry, in no other instance have companies experienced windfall profits for this long based on pure speculation that hasn't come true to date.

    And, yes, demand has increased, but this isn't a simple case of supply and demand. The rise in price has outpaced the rise in demand. This is being driven more by speculation than demand. And when the price of oil starts rising based on things happening in Lebanon, then that's over the line.

    And I'm predicting right now, we won't be going to war with Iran. Their oil means too much to us. Bush and Co. have too much to lose. And while the faith of half of America wasn't a high enough cost to stave them from war last time, I'm betting losing all that oil would be too big a step.

    All that said, yes, we need to find new sources. Yes, we need to cut demand for oil. But thanks to our current president paying nothing but lip service to finding alternative energy sources, we're stuck for now. And since we're stuck, we have to figure out how to get prices down, if we can. The only way to do that is to put pressure on the oil companies to bring prices down and put pressure on oil producing countries to increase supply.

    Which, of course, means prices aren't coming down too much any time soon.
  11. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Apparently not a great grasp about how commodities markets work--or any free market for that matter. You pretty much just alleged that nobody involved in the commodities market is trying to make money (which is hysterical, considering that is all people involved in that market are motivated by). According to you, everyone trading in oil futures is in cahoots to drive up oil prices for some reason only you can divine--i.e. "using every excuse they can to speculate that their will be a shortage." You don't think there would be um, say, at least ONE guy out there who would be motivated by making money instead of being part of your vast conspiracy, and he'd um, go out and mortgage everything he owns, buy every drop of oil he can get his hands on, and then when all these people "making excuses (still need explanation of how this works, but...)" try to drive up the price, he'd undercut them and make a killing?

    As for the futures market is "all about speculation," I am not going to teach a free markets course, but they are, in fact, ruthlessly efficient. Prices aren't getting set willy nilly by guys in polyester suits you'd meet at the dog track. With many commodities it is very difficult--you can't, for example, predict a hurricane or a drought--but when it comes to geopolitical factors, the market is damned good at pricing in the exact perfect amount of risk.

    Get a grip and use logic, fellows.
  12. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    Ragu, you will drive yourself insane trying to explain economics on this board.
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