Gambling Thread

Welcome back to the cesspool.

 

Checked out the lines this morning and saw that the Bengals line had gone to +4.5, so I threw down $10 (again, I'm just playing small, small stakes for shits and giggles) on them and hit that, as well as the aforementioned Browns +3 on the third leg of my tease. Added in straight bets on Pittsburgh -1, Saints O49.5, and Dallas pick 'em. Dallas bet didn't work out, but oh well. Decent day of picks.

 

I didn't think Dallas could be worse than Washington. I was wrong. Just putrid.

 

I could fill hours with memorable gambling stories, but this morning's will be hard to beat.

The Texas Hold Em table is playing for pots that mostly range from $20-$40 -- nothing too wild. Eventually I get dealt A-A. After the flop of 4-7-J, I go all-in and to my great shock, three others do the same and all of a sudden the pot is about $1,200. Two players show a jack for a pair, and the third guy is looking for TWO cards to hit an inside straight. You probably know where this is going; BAM! the guy gets both parts of his straight.

Talk about a slap in the face.

 

Then there’s this:

A DraftKings bettor missed out on a $1 million payday due to a brutal stat correction when a sack was taken away from the Bears after the game

 

That's a kick in the, well ... sack.

Hit a little bet on the Dodgers run line last night that paid out +160.

 

7 legged Champions League parlay cashed. The over in Atalanta matches is basically an odds boost.

 

Tonight’s $10 free roll from FanDuel. the same game parlay.

Panthers ML. U52. Teddy U282 passing yards.

Also, look strongly at Colorado State. Teams that haven’t played vs teams that have are 19-7 ATS in college.

 

I had put ATL +2.5 and U52 into my betslip and never hit the confirm button. Oh well. When you're laying $10-$20 down on any bet, the lows never get real low and the highs don't get very high. If I had planned to bet more on them, I might have been more aggravated with myself.

Right now, though, I'm really just trying to get back into betting form. After taking off from live sports betting for so long, I entered a $50 NFL pick 'em league last year and I was utterly atrocious. It was embarrassing. It also showed me that I had lost my feel for the games because I wasn't putting in any of the work necessary to be successful.

So, while these little bets aren't particularly exciting, they're helping me get back into the old habits of research — following injury reports and weather forecasts, trends and line movements. I'm doing well overall so far — 6 for 9 and up $78 — but I still feel quite far removed from where I used to be. I used to be able to identify three or four games that I was really confident about and three or four more that I felt good about, but maybe they weren't a lock. Right now, I fell like I'm confident in one or two and the rest look like a total coin flip.

 

Looks like there's a great middling opportunity if you got on Clemson-Boston College early this week. The line opened at Clemson -31 (looks like it was as high as -33 at some books according to Vegas Insider), and after they announced Trevor Lawrence was out it quickly dropped to -28. Draft Kings and Fan Duel both have it in the 27 range, and they're showing one book all the way down to -23.5.
Figure it settles in around 26 or 27, and that 4-5-point range is a lot to play with.

 

That Colorado State idiocy violated a higher rule for me. Always fade a new coach in a program where they fired the previous coach (as opposed to a coach who won a bunch and moved up). Stupid stupid.

When Bridgewater got hurt, I found Falcons -155 ML and jumped on it so I made a $14 profit.