Gambling Thread

NWSL on its way to another under. Had to go under 1.5 -- that's a tight shave but it's coming into shore.

MLS has gone under the last five games. The players look absolutely spent now on the third game of pool play in Florida humidity. Low energy at the start and at the end. Keep rolling under.

 

I'm looking at U2 at -150. Good enough for me.

 

I have a 4-teamer that I'm also "lightly" hedging on other sites.

MLS & Serie A.
Tonight: Cincinnati-New York U2.5, Colorado-Minnesota U2.5
Tomorrow: the early MLS Vancouver-Chicago U2.5 (bad, BAD teams), Udinese-Juventis OVER 2.5
$40 to win $643

At each leg, I try to "buy back" the MLS over at a much higher price. For example, Cincy-NY O2.5 right now is +450. So I'll buy it back and, if it hits, I'll make a little money. And Cincy scored... damn. Too slow because I was typing. (It's okay, I'm already covered from buying the over back between -110 and up to +250.

You only see "whole numbers" under Asian Handicap? That's odd. (Sort of a math joke).

Here is what the Asian Handicap is in soccer.

Let's say that you come across Lazio-Leece totals. You see "Over 2.75 at -140 on the Asian handicap" and you put $200 on it.

If the total goals scored is 0, 1, 2, then you lose the entire $200

If the total goals scored is 4+, then you win the bet. That would be $142 profit (plus your $200 back).

It gets tricky if the final total is 3 goals -- then your 2.75 Asian handicap bet gets, essentially, split into two: O2.5 and O3.

Over 2.5: $100 at -140 = $71 profit (plus your $100 back)
Over 3: $100 at -140 = push. You get your $100 back.

So: Goals 0-2: -$200
Goals 3: +$71
Goals 4: +$142

Personally, I don't see a compelling reason to do the "quarter-point" spreads for overs. Yes, you get a better price for O2.75 compared with O2.5 but that means you need to get to FOUR goals for full payout. That's too much to give back.

I'd do it for an under to give yourself some leeway. If you're uneasy about going U3 for a game that you believe will be 0-2 goals, consider taking the Asian U3.25. That way, you'll win half and push half if it's 3.

 

Thanks Mile.

If you’re referencing tonight’s games, it’s 2-0 Cincy and I need it to stay under 2.5. I’ve spent $40 but I’ve hedged $36 with winnings of $52 right now.

If it’s still 2-0 at stoppage time, the O2.5 will shoot up fast. I’ll put $5 on the over once it hits +700. This way, I’ll either profit $4 and keep the parlay alive OR I’ll profit $46 and the parlay ends.

I generally play unders so a perfect day for me is a scoreless 25-30 minutes to start. The over lines shoot up and I pounce.

 

Vancouver will give up 3 by half time.

 

They are one of the worst outfits I've ever seen. Seattle made Vancouver look like 11 guys who had just met in the parking lot before the game and told each other their names. Chicago may be just as awful.

If you'd like Vancouver to be losing 3-0 at halftime, that pays out +2000 right now (20 to 1).

Here comes the surge in pricing for over 2.5 on Cincinnati-NY. 87', it's now +280. Around 90+2' or +3 (assuming it stays 2-0), it'll jump up around +700-+900. That's where I'll drop $5.

EDIT: 91st minute... +440. Nope... net yet to fire. 92nd... +510... nope. +650... almost... 93rd... got it at +800. It's worth losing $5 in profit to try and clear another $40 if the parlay dies.

Approaching 95 minutes... now at +1000... before disappearing off the board "for good".