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Commission Briefing English – EXTERNAL

Editor Chris Duval c.duval@clle.eu

SPORTS PREDICTION (HORSE RACING, GOLF, SOCCER, TENNIS) 2015

What We Do: The CLLE is a Think-and-Do Tank that designs predictive analysis techniques. We publish regular briefings on the art and science of prediction, sports being a particularly rich environment with well defined event outcomes, plenty of statistics, media coverage and analysis, and active prediction markets (betting).

Our monthly briefings discuss predictive analysis applications and the science of them. Our alerts make predictions and point out anomalies. Our subscribers are the predictive analytics industry, media analysts, statisticians, systems analysts, intelligence analysts, betting industry odds compilers and sports traders. We translate into English, German, French, Greek, Polish, Czech, Russian.

Pitch Us Your Idea for a Feature: Journalists bring us value with their experience and knowledge of sport; their understanding of media production; their understanding of the journalist. Journalists' features form part of our briefings which supplement the sporting calendar for our readers. Our commissioning calendar is running 1-3 months in advance of an event. Ask the editor for guidance.

A constant theme in our briefings is “Information Efficiency”. In particular “How does a market interpret and act on information?”. Market X overrates Player Y to win Event Z because of his high media profile, world ranking and being a local favourite, as a simple example. But, valuable prediction is never about conventional selection criteria such as world ranking or form. Value is identified in the meta-context of how information is interpreted by an audience and expressed through prediction markets (betting). For example, subtle differences in the framing of statistics can result in polar opposite interpretations. (We'll freely provide the educational resources for journalists who'd like to quickly learn more about predictive analysis and prediction markets. Ask the editor for details.)

Angles for Features...

1. Environment Scanning - Features that can help us map out and discuss the monitoring of the prediction business in your sport or target environment.
   1. Rating Systems: Who's developed their own rating systems? Are they any good?
   2. Mathematical Models: Who's built models? Results?
   3. OSINT (Open Source Intelligence): List open and commercial sources of news, rumor and gossip... To be discussed with editor.
   4. Predictive Analytics: Who's applying predictive analytics and discussing big data?
   5. Data Providers: Who, what and how much? Profile of each identified.
2. Environment Scanning - Features that can help us map out and discuss the monitoring of existing providers of analysis, intelligence, insight and predictions about your sport or target. Who is worth following? Who has a knack of anticipating developments? Who is producing high quality insights? How do they do it?
3. Early identification of news stories or rumors– Features that explore ways to identify news stories and rumors; their potential impact on audiences and prediction markets; how they will be covered by wider media. Can we identify the newsworthy earlier and price its impact before prediction markets?
   1. Existing media monitoring and alert providers
   2. Existing social media monitoring applications and innovations
4. Player Profile (long term regular coverage 6-12 months): to be discussed with editor
5. Team Profile (long term regular coverage 6-12 months): to be discussed with editor
6. Event Profile (long term regular coverage 6-12 months): to be discussed with editor
7. Peer Group Analysis (Crowds) (long term regular coverage 6-12 months): How is the media portraying events and making predictions: How does your peer group interpret such mediated events? (your peer group could include being an Arsenal Supporter, Golf Punter, Journalist... etc – Discuss with Editor)
   1. Who is setting the agenda, informing and influencing your peer group? (Influencers such as Players, Analysts, Journalists, Publications, Bloggers, Thought Leaders, Industry Leaders, Media and Trade Press, Private Market Intel, Social Media)
   2. What questions are your peers asking? What does your peer group NEED to know?
   Briefing PARAMETERS (to be discussed in detail with commissioning editor)
   
   
   
   • TOPIC: MENS PGA AND EUROPEAN PGA MAIN TOURS - ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE and FOOTBALL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP - UK and EUROPEAN HORSE RACING - MENS AND WOMENS TENNIS TOURS
   • ANGLE: As above
   • GENRES: Backgrounder, Fly on the wall, Eyewitness, Profile, Investigative, Intel Report.
   • POINTS WHICH MUST DEFINITELY be COVERED: To be discussed
   • POINTS TO LEAVE OUT: To be discussed
   • PEOPLE to CONTACT: To be discussed
   • LENGTH: 400 - 2,000 Words To be discussed
   • FORMAT: Open Office, Microsoft Office or Adobe PDF
   • TONE of VOICE: Analytic, Investigative (quotes and anecdotes to give it color - ask for our style guide)
   • ILLUSTRATIONS, IMAGES NEEDED: To be discussed
   • DEADLINE: To be discussed
   • RATES and PAYMENT: Features = NUJ Rates. We retain full copyright for confidentiality;
     Research = Hourly rate to be discussed ; Regular Long Term Coverage = to be discussed
     Payment terms= Advance and Copy Sign Off; 30% Kill Fee with 21 days notice, 50% Kill Fee otherwise; Expenses to be agreed in advance; Byline= to be discussed
   Pitch your feature to: Chris Duval Editor c.duval@clle.eu CLLE Prague, Czech Rep