"Fourth and Goal: The John Fox Story"

Cutler audibled into that play. The play sent in was some kind of run-pass option.

 

But there's way more to it than that. You don't just need the touchdown, you need the two-point conversion as well -- in effect you need to score touchdowns on back-to-back plays. Plus, if you take the FG, you are still staying in the game even if the Broncos get a FG. Plus, with 10 minutes left and the way you're playing defense, you get the ball two more times.

I don't think this is a matter of second-guessing. There was plenty of first-guessing when it happened.

 

You need a touchdown and a field goal, with two possessions left for the field goal.

 

Yeah, or you need a touchdown and a touchdown if you miss the two and they get the FG.

It was from the 4-yard line, right? Based on this study, the success rate with 4 yards to go inside the opponents' 10-yard line is between 35 and 40 percent. Given the Broncos' success (or lack thereof) covering 50+ yards on drives yesterday, I have to think if they kick the field goal, the odds swing in the Bears' favor of getting the ball back needing a touchdown to win, rather than a touchdown and a 2-pointer just to tie.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study

 

Even if you don't get the 2-point conversion, you'd still be in a stronger position than if you kicked - Down two with three minutes, kicking off to the Broncos. Either way, you still need to get a stop, but if you got the touchdown first, then you can win the game with a field goal. This isn't as bad as when the Falcons kicked with fourth-and-1 a few weeks ago, but to me it's not even as close as a 55-45 call.

 

Three minutes?

There were 10 minutes left.

 

That's fine, except even with the FG, they still need another TD. If scoring from fourth-and-4 is only a 40ish percent proposition, then what are the chances of kicking a FG, then forcing a TO or a punt, and then going 20 to 80 yards? I imagine it's less than the 40 percent for the TD on fourth-and-4, followed by the 2-point conversion.

 

You'd be wrong, I imagine. The chance of scoring on fourth-and-four and then getting the two-point conversion is roughly 20 percent.

 

Blah - sorry, got the details mixed up in my mind. You're right then, it's closer to a 55-45 call, or 50-50. I still like Fox going for it, but it's defensible either way given how much time was left.

 

Shoot, with 10 minutes left they could have gone Andy Reid style and kicked three field goals to win 18-17!

 

Nonsense. You don't "need" the two point conversion. Even if you fail to tie it with the two pointer on the next play, it merely means you need another score, except you'd only need a field goal instead of the additional TD you'd need if you;d kicked--in other words, you'd still be in a better position. And they're still "staying in the game" even if they fail on the fourth down, it just means they need another TD and conversion (which, of course, is what nearly happened), just like they'd still need another TD if they'd kicked. The more I think about this the firmer my opinion is that Fox made the right call.

But, regardless, there's one thing I know for sure: IF he had kicked the field goal and then failed to get the follow up TD, the same second-guessers bashing him today would STILL be bashing him for not having the balls to go for it when he had a chance to tie the game from the four yard line. When it comes to these borderline call scenarios, nothing's ever the right call if the play doesn't convert. Regardless of the decision, the same people will bash away and claim they knew better the next day.

 

Wow, you're very angry. But my take is not "nonsense." Breathe, buddy.

They can only stay in the game with a score and conversion if they get the stop -- which they did, indeed. But if they had taken the field goal and then gotten the very same stop ... presto, they just won the game with their touchdown.

Check my previous link. The historical rate for a touchdown on fourth down from the 4-yard line is between 35 and 40 percent. And we know two-point conversions are about 50-50. So there's a 20 percent chance they get the tie right there that Fox was going for.

Their chance of winning the game with a FG, a stop and a TD was higher than that.