Felix the Cat Five ...

The only hurricane thread we need comes from Mr. Bat, Stormbringer.

 

No major updates on the 11 p.m. advisory -- winds at 165 still, pressure down to 930 mb. Next plane is heading out there at 2 a.m. EDT. God knows what they'll find at that point.

 

One bit of good news (for Texicans, that is): Forecast track seems to have snuck south. Bad news for Belize and Honduras.

 

Massive spaghetti confusion. Could land anywhere from northern Costa Rica to Brownsville.

Probably a reflection of the different models taking a wild ass guess computing where the upper-level systems will be over the southern U.S.

 

So if it crosses into the Pacific, does it regain strength and have a go at Acapulco?

 

This thing caught me off-guard. I remember hearing about the new hurricane out there. I look away for a day and all of a sudden it's blown up to C5.

And, just to update, the intermediate advisory says winds are the same. Interesting note in there that while the storm is a monster, hurricane-force winds extend only 30 miles from the eye, tropical storm winds 115 miles. With any luck, perhaps the worst damage is localized (though it still sucks for those people that get slammed).

 

Major drop in barometric pressure in a short period of time. The Weather Channel reports this morning that Felix's pressure plummeted 30 millibars in six hours, third-largest drop (in that time span) in recorded history. Wilma (2005) dropped 54 mb in six hours.

Over 12 hours, Felix is second, behind only Wilma.

 

Not likely. Mexico's terrain is mountainous enough to rip apart almost all storms crossing through. It's not unprecedented for an Atlantic storm to cross into the Pacific, but it usually makes its passage over Central America.

The reminants of Dean had a chance at redeveloping in the Pacific, but didn't.

 

There have been storms that have crossed over before. The last one I know of was in 1974. It was called Fifi in the Atlantic, but when it reached the other side it was given a Pacific name.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fifi-Orlene

 

The standard now is that if it retains tropical characteristics, it keeps its name. If it doesn't, and the reminants pop up in the Pacific, it gets a new name. Occasionally storms can strike land in the Pacific and cross into the Atlantic, as well.

 

There is a little village on the northern Honduran coast that my mom goes to for about a week every June as part of a church mission. She said this year was her last because she's getting too old. Well, it may be her last anyway because that village will no longer exist, the route the storm is taking right now.

Eye looks a little fuzzy. Regeneration?

 

Possibly. Tiny pinhole eye, so it'll probably have a eyewall replacement cycle in the next 24 hours. Still hasn't hit the warmest water in the sea, so there's no reason to think it won't be, at worst, a strong Cat 4 when it hits its first land.

The only positive about Felix is that it's moving fast, which should cut down the amount of rain the Central America countries receive. Mitch was a stronger storm, but he did his damage by stalling out just off the coast and throwing down ungodly amounts or rain on Honduras. Ditto Fifi, which moved slowly along the Honduran coast. Felix should be faster. Also the U.S. is looking a lot safer than 24 hours ago, though South Texas should still keep aware of it just in case it makes a sharp NW turn later down the line.