Eli Manning: Hall of Famer?

Fair enough. I'll let you have the last word on it.

But I think you needed to be pushed on that pat answer about Plunkett (which I happen to agree with).

 

Eli is good. He's not great. Give him about eight more years with consistent play, and it's possible.

 

Not even close to true. Any evaluation of a quarterback based solely on his team's wins and losses is lazy, overly-simplistic and badly flawed.

Not saying passer rating is perfect. Far from it. But even that is better than only using wins and losses.

Dan's post does not point out why passer rating is so flawed because Dan did not take into account the changes in the game from the time when guys like Unitas, Starr and Tarkenton were playing to the present day. The changes have been too dramatic for the comparison to be useful without some adjustment.

 

How many active quarterbacks would you say have had better careers than Eli to this point?

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers (maybe too early...)

I think those five are pretty clearly better. It's too early to call Rodgers a Hall-of-Famer. I think Roethlisberger would get in if he retired tomorrow. The other three will go in on the first ballot.

 

I think Manning is ahead of Rodgers just because he's got the extra four seasons and the extra Super Bowl appearance (potential win) is probably greater than the MVP award to most.

But the way Rodgers' career is going, he's in line to jump in at the end.

 

If you are talking career accomplishments, maybe you put Manning first. Maybe. Bit if you want to go with who is better now, it is Rodgers.

It's not like Manning was always a great quarterback before this season. He has been erratic, with one great hot streak at the right time in '07. This season was a big step forward for him.

 

I'm talking about the HOF chances Mizzou brought up in regards to the era's QBs.

There's no doubt that Eli is behind Peyton, Brady, Brees and Rothlisberger. But it is too early to say Rogers is ahead of him, especially with the potential for Eli's 2nd Super Bowl title and the fact that while Rogers is at the top of his game right now, anything can happen that cut cut his career short.

Aaron Rogers isn't going to the Hall of Fame based on his current resume through the 2011 Season. I think you could make a case for Eli, particularly if he gets the 2nd title.

 

Quarterbacks generally have two paths to the HOF.
1) Without winning a championship (or maybe winning just one), put up freakish stats that set you apart from every single one of your contemporaries. Think Dan Marino, Dan Fouts and Warren Moon. I'm even tempted to put Favre in this category, since the bulk of his playoff success came relatively early in his career. These guys are great, had some team success, got to the brink of a championship but never got over the hump.

2) Put up respectable stats that establish you as one of the top QBs of your era, but not THE best, while also mixing in a couple of titles. Think Bradshaw, Staubach, Aikman and Montana. Those guys were great, but are a ways down on the career yardage and TD lists. Their greatness is measured more by what they did in the postseason and Super Bowl.

I'd say Eli is trending toward the latter category. He's a solid QB. With the new rules he'll probably rack up 30,000 or 40,000 yards in his career. But he's not as highly regarded as the Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Roethlisberger, Brady class.
Eli's problem, as far as the HOF is concerned, is that none of those guys are in the first tier. They've all won championships, some of them more than one. That means he's fifth in a five-horse race at the moment. He's going to have to win multiple championships -- this one and at least one more -- before he overtakes them.

 

Interesting theory, though I think you are underselling Montana.

 

Yep.

 

It took Tebow to make you realize that winning is integral to sports lore? Joe Montana was not the most skillful quarterback but won four Super Bowls in four tries, and Dan Marino may have been the most pure thrower in NFL history but never won the big game. It really depends what the criteria is.

Either way it is too soon for the Eli HOF talk.

 

Most Pure Thrower sounds like the designation for China's version of Johnny Unitas.