Election 2006 -- Race By Race

A Republican whore? Didn't know we were discussing Katherine Harris.

 

In Illinois, it appears Democrat Melissa Bean is a slam-dunk to retain her House seat, which she won two years ago after a zillion years of Republican control. One of the former seatholders was Donald Rumsfeld.

Tammy Duckworth and Peter Roskam (which he says with the perfect Chicago accent -- RAHHHHS-kum) appear to be a dead heat to get Henry Hyde's old seat. Roskam and the Republicans are like Basil Fawlty -- don't talk about the war! That's because Duckworth lost both legs as a chopper pilot in Iraq. The party ads tend to focus on the idea that if elected, Duckworth would allow millions of Mexicans to move into your neighborhood and take your money. The Democratic ads infer Roskam would ban books and give women no choice at all, down to what TV show they would watch on Fridays. It's not 100% ugly, except the ad where Roskam flashes a picture of himself as a speedo-wearing teenager.

There's some pretense that Dan Seals might be able to ride the Democratic wave to unseat North Shore Republican Mark Kirk, but I have a hard time seeing that happen. Kirk is generally well-regarded around here, even by Democrats.

The most bizarre race is for Cook County Board president. In the Democratic primary, president John Stroger, who faced the threat of being unseated by board member Forrest Claypool, suffered a stroke just before the election. Stroger's son Todd -- the George W. Bush of Chicago politics, in terms of facing frequent accusations his head is an empty place -- helped lead an effort to keep the wraps on Stroger's condition, to the point local wags started comparing it to how the Soviet Politburo would say Konstantin Chernenko was out six months because of "the sniffles." Stroger won the primary, and lo and behold, Todd was picked to take his place in the general election against Republican Tony Peraica, also a Cook County board member. Normally a Republican wouldn't have a chance in hell of winning, but Peraica appeared to have a shot, what with voter disgust over how Todd Stroger ascended, and voter disgust over John Stroger's ability to add, seemingly, about 1,000 county workers/political hacks a month despite a budget crisis. But the Stroger family is putting those county workers to use -- "vote for Stroger so I don't lose my job" -- and the Democratic machine in Chicago is stepping up to help.

Interestingly, one enthusiastic endorsement came from so-far untouchable Barack Obama, whom I predict will be touched quite a bit as he "considers" a run. I like him, but Illinois politicians of any party don't get elected without getting their hands dirty. One story coming out now detailed business arrangement between Obama and Tony Rezko, a political fixer-type and buddy of Gov. Rod Blagojevich who recently was indicted on corruption-related charges. Speaking of the governor's race, Blago will win over his Republican opponent, state treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, but it looks like the Green Party candidate is going to get at least 15% of the vote (including mine) because of disgust over being forced to chose between two equally corrupt and vile candidates. Interestingly, Rich Whitney, the Green guy, has one unexpected position -- allowing open carrying of handguns. His idea is, at least with open-carry, you have warning about who is armed.

 

A fiber-rich turdette who got slaughtered in her debate this week.

 

Bob, I haven't kept up with the Stroger saga for about a month and it's good to know that this is still compelling to read and watch. I was amazed on how all of this developed after John suffered his stroke and the primaries were coming up.

Got to love "The Chicago Way" of politics.

 

Hatch has a small lead in most of the polls, but is bracing for nearly a million dollars worth of 72-hour advertising on behalf of Pawlenty coming from the guy who did the Swift Boat ads.

Stay tuned.

Oh, and SD abortion ban still looks to be defeated in latest poll, while the organization promoting it scrambles to explain serious financing disclosure irregularities.

 

If the Illinois GOP wasn't in tatters, Blago would be in big trouble. He is the Grey Davis of this election cycle: he is going to win an easy re-election because the GOP has nothing, but don't mistake his margin of victory for any kind of popularity.

 

Polls today say that both NH seats are definitely in play.
Not sure I believe that.

 

That sounded like the Iowa Democrats for nearly 30 years until Vilsack was elected governor. Now, both sides are at even keel.

 

It's interesting that the Wash. Post seems today to be saying that the Republicans see losing the House as a foregone conclusion, and they're now focusing all their money and efforts into key Senate races. I was sort of surprised to read that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110301706.html

I have a bad feeling that Burns is going to pull it out in Montana. Poll today shows he and Tester are dead even.

 

Also, an interesting story should be Indiana. It's expected three Republican incumbents (Chris "Count" Chocola, John "I Tried to Bring a Gun Through Airport Security" Hostettler and Mike "No Nickname" Sodrel) will lose. Indiana is seen as a Republican state because it hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in '64, but it is really is an ornery state. It seems like when surrounding states have one party in power, Indiana always has the opposite. Hoosiers are spiteful that way. Anyway, the Statehouse could go Democratic (again), although most residents would be happy if was 50-50, as it has been a few times, thus gumming up the works.

But what's more interesting is that the Republican Statehouse in Indiana passed a law pushed by Gov. Mitch Daniels (former GWB aide) that gave the state the most restrictive voter ID law in the nation. You not only must present a voter ID, but it also must "conform with the voter registration record" -- which to me sounds like if my drivers' license said "Robert" and my voter registration said "Bob," I would be rejected.

There are exemptions, and you can cast a provisional ballot that will give you 10 days to come up with the required ID. But, man, that sounds like an invitation to a thousand political party lawyers arguing over who's eligible and who's not. So if the races are tight, I'm sure they'll be going into overdrive trying to prove or disprove ballots. That could even make a difference in the 7th district (Indianapolis) where incumbent Julia Carson has not been pulling down great poll numbers against Republican Eric Dickerson (the car dealer, not the running back).

Of course, the lawyering up will be going on everywhere this election. My mother-in-law is an election judge in Illinois, and I feel for her -- new electronic voting machines and observers from both parties who'll be arguing every vote (as they did in 2004).

 

I'm not sure it goes as far as "Robert" vs. "Bob"....but if you moved since you last voted and your drivers license has the new address, you will get a hassle.

From what I can tell, Chocola is a goner. Hostettler is barely clinging to life -- he needs his famed numbers of under the radar voters to come out in mob-like droves. Sodrel vs. Hill is an interesting race. This is the third consecutive election those two have faced off and I think the past two were each decided by less than 2,000 votes. Sodrel and Hill are running just about even, with a slight edge to Hill. I wouldn't be shocked to see either one win. If the national GOP had spent any money on Dickerson, I think he'd beat Carson. He still might. The GOP in Indianapolis will be motivated to turn out to vote for the county prosecutor's race, where a protegee of the Dem mayor is taking on the incumbent GOP prosecutor. The two sides have waged a massive ad battle -- as much as a congressional race -- and I think the GOP is rallying around Brizzi (the prosecutor) because he is their best hope of taking back the mayor's office.

Bush and Daniels are both very unpopular in Indiana. Daniels got the state to finally observe daylight savings time, which was the right thing to do, but might kill his political career. He also leased the Indiana Toll Road for 75 years to the tune of 3 billion dollars. He's putting the money into road improvements across the state, including the proposed I-69 from Indy to Evansville. The I-69 is controversial as is the fact that the Toll Road was leased to an Australian (read: foreign) company. Dems in Indiana get the advantage of running against Bush and Daniels (44% approval, 50% disapproval) in this election.

 

Damn, the stubborn refusal of Indiana to recognize DST was one of the things I liked best about it.