Congratulations to Barry Bonds on 589 Career Home Runs!

Tom Petty · Aug 8, 2007

buckweaver said:

Tom Petty said:

buckweaver said:

Tom Petty said:

spnited said:

I'm not questioning Bonds' use of steroids, HGH, cream, clear, whatever.
I'm questioning a stupid formula that says he "should have " hit 589 home runs.
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i hate fat bill as much as you. his shit dehumanizes the game for the simple reason of helping math geeks feel good about themselves.
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It doesn't dehumanize the game unless you let it. Goddamn, why are y'all so fucking threatened by this stuff?

If you like it, have fun with it. If you don't like it, ignore it.
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jesus buck, just because we think it's bullshit you claim we're threatened by it?

that's kinda shitty.
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Nothin' personal, TP. It's just the same knee-jerk argument over and over, every time Bill James comes up. "He sucks; his stats are bullshit and/or always wrong; it dehumanizes the game, blah, blah, blah ..."
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much like most people's response to JVD?

spnited · Aug 8, 2007

Songbird said:

spnited said:

Sorry, Xan, but Pythagoras would never let the Cubs win the World Series.
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You might be right. OK, I'll revise:

Columbus Clippers over the Cubs
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Do the Columnbus Clippers still exist? Yanks AAA is in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre now. Who moved a team to Columbus?

Songbird · Aug 8, 2007

Makes it even better! A team that doesn't even exist anymore beats the Cubs in the World Series.

But really, spiritended? No more Clippers?

OK, I'll revise again:

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre over the Cubs

Tom Petty · Aug 8, 2007

buckweaver said:

Tom Petty said:

buckweaver said:

Tom Petty said:

buckweaver said:

Tom Petty said:

spnited said:

I'm not questioning Bonds' use of steroids, HGH, cream, clear, whatever.
I'm questioning a stupid formula that says he "should have " hit 589 home runs.
Click to expand...

i hate fat bill as much as you. his shit dehumanizes the game for the simple reason of helping math geeks feel good about themselves.
Click to expand...

It doesn't dehumanize the game unless you let it. Goddamn, why are y'all so fucking threatened by this stuff?

If you like it, have fun with it. If you don't like it, ignore it.
Click to expand...

jesus buck, just because we think it's bullshit you claim we're threatened by it?

that's kinda shitty.
Click to expand...

Nothin' personal, TP. It's just the same knee-jerk argument over and over, every time Bill James comes up. "He sucks; his stats are bullshit and/or always wrong; it dehumanizes the game, blah, blah, blah ..."
Click to expand...

much like most people's response to JVD?
Click to expand...

Hell, that boy doesn't even deserve a "goddammit" response from me. Only you and spnited get that.
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ha. i was focusing on: "He sucks; his (posts) are bullshit and/or always wrong."

EStreetJoe · Aug 8, 2007

Philosopher said:

ESPN now has a fantastic tool that uses Bill James' career projection formula to project a player's career based upon age and past performance.

So I went in and inputted the data for Barry Bonds at age 34, his last season before he started taking the Clear. Go see the results yourself. The bottom line is:

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 4 more years, at an average of 36 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 589 for his career. He has a 0 percent chance to reach 756.
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I personally think Bonds would have broken 600 even without the Clear. (Of course with enhancement, he's a good bet to break 800.) He would have been a first-ballot HOFer either way.

But is this sort of exercise worth doing for other, more marginal candidates ... like, say, Sammy Sosa? If we look back to 1997, he doesn't project to hit 500, much less 600. Results:

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 7 more years, at an average of 37.3 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 468.3 for his career. He has a 16.5 percent chance to reach 600.
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Personally I wouldn't vote for Sosa but would vote for Bonds, largely for the reasons in this post. Sosa wasn't a HOFer without enhancement. Bonds clearly was.
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Babe Ruth got gypped. He was supposed to finish with 720 homers according to those projections.

chester · Aug 8, 2007

spnited said:

Songbird said:

spnited said:

Sorry, Xan, but Pythagoras would never let the Cubs win the World Series.
Click to expand...

You might be right. OK, I'll revise:

Columbus Clippers over the Cubs
Click to expand...

Do the Columnbus Clippers still exist? Yanks AAA is in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre now. Who moved a team to Columbus?
Click to expand...

Actually, the Clippers are now the Nationals' AAA affiliate.

spnited · Aug 8, 2007

Xan, Clippers are now the Nats AAA team

(which is pretty tough to figure considering the Nats are a AA team)

Songbird · Aug 8, 2007

Funny, spnited. (and true; sorry, Moddy).

Tom Petty · Aug 8, 2007

Songbird said:

Funny, spnited. (and true; sorry, Moddy).
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nats v. royals in a best of seven. think they tie at 3.5 apiece?

spnited · Aug 8, 2007

Songbird said:

Funny, spnited. (and true; sorry, Moddy).
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Figured I was OK because I haven't seen Moddy around here tonight.

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Congratulations to Barry Bonds on 589 Career Home Runs!

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Congratulations to Barry Bonds on 589 Career Home Runs!

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