College Football 2015 Week 4 thread

You people are some real degenerates! College football, with all its purity, doesn't belong in such filth. [Sarcasm font]

 

Why would a large portion of the betting public think Auburn can cover against MSU this weekend? State was admittedly pushed around by LSU in the first half but wound up covering against that small spread. Auburn meanwhile was dominated at home by the same LSU team. Now, the Tigers will play a QB who never took a college snap, against preseason all-conference first-teamer Dak Prescott. I don't bet these days but it seems like a lock that State would win outright.
Just sayin' ...
And now the line goes from 4 down to 2, so Vegas is giving State more credit than it did Monday.
Don't ever overthink a wager, guys. That was always my mantra.
And if you ARE playing the SEC numbers this weekend, Ole Miss seems a five-star lock to win by higher than 26 and Tennessee will likely knock Florida for a loop in the Swamp.

 

It's not that Auburn is good. But there's always a dead cat bounce in there. If the game slides to a pick em, take Auburn. Every point helps if it goes to OT.

Ole Miss at home against lousy Vandy. But perhaps not as lousy?? They hung a little with Georgia two weeks ago and I can imagine the Rebs players have enjoyed Roman orgies since Sunday. Think they'll have the intensity to win by four scores?

Tennessee is better than Florida and they're focused. They'll win.

 

I figured this game would set some records for highest over/under (2014 Baylor/Okie State @ 88.5)......Down to 79.5

Take TCU. Lay the points.

I'm a big Tech fan. I'm also realistic.

This has 63-35 written on it.

 

RIP Cover Alert.

More gambler friendly, ESPN annoys colleges - SportsBusiness Daily | SportsBusiness Journal | SportsBusiness Daily Global

 

Hey, I at least got one right then!
I think Georgia failed to show its hand 'gainst Vandy the other week.
Richt is smart and he's always efforting the make it through the sked without his customary hiccup.
Every year seems like it's potentially their year to be in the big picture come November.
Ole Miss wants dearly to make it to No. 1 and Coach Freeze has a good attitude going among the players, I think.
They know the alums will play that game, and then spend to boost the coffers.
Take The Rebels to easily cover that, I think.
And Auburn seems ripe for the picking at this point in time.

 

According to numbers gleaned from this article, the amount bet on college football ILLEGALLY every year comes out to more than $233 for every person in America. I call B.S. The title game had 33 million viewers (about 1 out 10 Americans - figure if someone cares enough to bet they're watching that game.
Think sports gambling isn't big money? Wanna bet? - NBC News

 

Just looked through my Phil Steele.

NO teams in last 10 seasons have gone winless ATS. None. 1,150 plus seasons.

2008 Washington went 1-11
2011 Central Michigan went 1-11

You'll get the occasional 2-10.

Auburn HAS to cover one of these weeks!

 

Dan, people seldom bet only a buck a game. One whale with an SEC background can equal the population of Boston in dollar volume.

 

Martingale (betting system) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Oh very aware of the danger of the Martingale. In a previous life, I was a licensed card dealer. Saw the players "double up" and use a shaky hand to push $160 after losing a few in a row.

Yet in a casino playing blackjack, it's different. If you're betting $10 and hand, eventually you'll lose 7 in a row and be facing a decision on pushing $640 out there on one hand. Losing 7 in a row isn't unusual. I lost 22 of 23 at the Stardust in 1995. Thankfully I was flat betting $5 a hand.


College Football is different. 1150 plus "team seasons" and no one goes 0-12. Only two went 1-11 and in both cases they won their single game within the seventh game.

The odds/point spread shifts week to week as the public will react and often overreact. Unlike cards, the previous results strongly influence the number and the next week. If Auburn comes out and gets blown out this week by MSU, that'll make it even easier for them to cover the following week.

 

2008 Washington went 0-12. They even lost in double OT to the worst team that year, ol' WAZZU. Which means WAZZU was only the next-to-worst team.