Changes to baseball Hall of Fame voting

No, I'm not. And it's not guesswork. We've been over this. We've parsed the data.

Also: It's fine if you think the keepers of non-unanimity should lose their votes. It's not fine if you think they have any impact on the vote, whatsoever.

 

Did I say they were keeping people out? No. Never.

That wasn't even the point we argued before. Please try to keep these things straight if you are going to drag up an old pissing match.

I claimed that they are doing the wrong thing. You tried to dismiss that by saying it wasn't enough of them to matter. You think the number is smaller than I do, but you don't know. You are making, at best, an educated guess. I'm being kind by including educated in that sentence.

I have also claimed that they are part of a larger group of voters who misuse the privilege for a variety of reasons. Some want to make some sort of statement. Some want to punish everybody who took part in the steroid era. Whatever it is, they aren't using the ballots for the intended purpose, which is to vote in those deserving of a place in the Hall of Fame.

 

OK.

 

The other thing that bothers me about the switch is that it comes during a flood of the ballot.

You announce this change now, when:

the year before Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Piazza, Biggio and Schilling made the ballot (and none were elected)
the year that Thomas, Maddux and Glavine get in but Mussina and Kent also hit the ballot.
the year before Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz and Sheffield are eligible (to say nothing of someone like Carlos Deglado).

You can fill a 10-man ballot just out the guys listed and totally ignore the holdovers from before 2012.

It's kinda obvious that next year's class will be Johnson, Pedro and Biggio -- because I have no reason to believe the writers will put in Smoltz for a four-man class. Regardless of the urgency just put on everyone else, it's not happening in 2015 for a Raines or a Bagwell to make a big enough move to get in in time.

And every class from now to 2020 has at least one guy who is going to get in. So the exclusive writers don't have to worry --- they are assured of there being someone to choose.

 

It's not really enforced. I know people who spent a few years on a baseball beat who have been on non-baseball beats for the better part of the last decade, who are still voters. I think the only requirement is that you stay a member of the BBWAA.

 

Columnists are BBWAA members, or used to be, anyway. That's how I got my Hall vote. Also, sports editors used to be (just don't know anymore) members.
I believe this change is a bad idea, with the obvious purpose of trying to make the steroid issue go away more quickly. Needless to say, that won't work.

 

There are also a handful of guys who are sports editors who haven't ever been beat writers.

 

Wow, lot of "Honorary" votes on there.

 

That's what happens when you maintain your honorary status forever

 

Honoraries (such as me) increased dramatically in the 2000s and 2010s for reasons we all know by heart.

 

Another bad idea of what to do with HOF voting is going to be implemented. This rule change pushes more decent candidates toward the Veteran's Committee and probably further clogs the current ballot. One change that was needed was an expansion of the ballot so a voter could name up to 15 guys (if not to 20). Changes to the rules should try to avoid clogging the ballot and should try to work to sending the Veteran's Committee idea into oblivion. This rule is going in exactly the wrong direction on both counts.

I'm assuming an already crowded ballot like we currently have and will for a few years. I think that we'll see the last years pressure for guys like Trammell and Raines to start earlier and that at least in the short term it will clog the ballot. Maybe when the restriction plays out over a few years, it won't have that effect. However, I think that the post expansion era leads to more candidates who will meet levels of achievement that traditionally has lead to induction. If we allow less time for induction, this will have the tendency to clog the ballot. I'm also assuming no increase in the number of names a writer can put on his ballot.

 

The change in the ballot length doesn't keep the ballot clogged. The voting patterns of the divergent electorate during a time producing more and more viable candidates but handcuffed by the 10-man limit instituted at a point from which the number of teams has doubled is the problem.

Just based on viable candidates by year:

2015 (21): Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Lee Smith, Curt Schilling, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff , Mark McGwire, Larry Walker, Sammy Sosa, Carlos Delgado, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz
2016 (potentially 25): Any 2015 holdover, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner.
2017: (potentially 28): Any 2016 holdover, Vlad Guerrero, Jorge Posada, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez
2018: (potentially 33): Any holdovers, Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel
2019: (potentially 38) Any holdovers, Lance Berkman, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera
2020: (potentially 39) Any holdovers, Derek Jeter, TBD retirees

Now that's a log jam. And if you want to be conservative and assume Sosa drops off in 2015 while Johnson, Pedro and Biggio get elected, Smoltz and Griffey go in 2016 with McGwire falling off the ballot and Pudge and Piazza go in together in 2017, if all the other names stay on the ballot the logjam cleared from 25 all the way to 23 in a three-year span. And it has nothing to do with shortening the limit from 15 to 10 as Raines would be the only one to get knocked off prematurely by the cut from 15 years to 10 for the 2018 ballot.

The only way to keep up with the current logjam is to put in 3 players every year through 2019.