Can the Heat win a title? Where do they go from here?

Oh, sure, they'll win eventually. Too much raw talent. Even the best teams sometimes take a while to jell. I'm just glad they didn't win their first year together. Would have set a horrible precedent.

 

The Bulls are also going to get better. They aren't as cap-jammed and they have great appeal to free agents. If you're thinking three years out, you have to think Chicago will be better than Miami. So I think there is a finite window of opportunity that Miami has to get it done.

 

Unless the owners create some weird CBA that would require the Heat to basically give away James, Wade or Bosh, I don't see how you can write them off as title contenders for the foreseeable future.

1) As is, with the decaying corpses of Mike Bibby, Eddie House and others at the point, they managed to get to game six of the NBA finals. The supporting cast around the core trio is probably never going to be above-average, but this year is proof it didn't have to be, as they managed to get through Chicago and Boston with surprising ease.

2) While they might get rid of the midlevel exception, the Heat can still sign minimum salary and draft picks, I would assume. They haven't been the best drafting team around, but they just need filler and rotation players as opposed to guys playing major minutes.

3) If they don't get rid of the midlevel exception, then the Heat will just pick-up a veteran a year or every two years and probably make it that way.

4) Players seem to like Lebron and Wade and Bosh, and the Heat are probably going to win 50 to 65 games a year. It's not hard to envision them recruiting some veterans who want a chance at a ring.

5) The competitive balance of the East isn't overwhelming. Boston and Orlando looks like they could be going through downturns, and Atlanta's current team has probably peaked. Chicago would be the main competitor, and they have as many "questions" as the Heat would - They rely on one player for a ton of offense (Rose), they need a shooting guard, they're near the cap and Boozer has injury woes as well.

I will say that I didn't realize Wade was already 29, so yeah, his health would be the most worrisome thing. His game is built on athleticism as opposed to fine shooting, so I wouldn't expect him to age as well as an elite shooter would (Reggie Miller, Ray Allen). That Jordan guy prolonged his career by really developing a post game, but he was also a sociopath when it came to hoops.

 

I don't want to see an NBA lockout. Part of me would like to see this league go away for a long time, yes, but I am thinking of the hotels, restaurants, team employees, etc., that would be hurt.

That's not the point here. You bet the owners are going to want some sort of a hard cap that breaks up the Heat or at least forces the team to give away one of the big three. I'm not a cap person by any means (witness my baseball stance on salary caps), but I could see it happening.

 

They need to add depth, which as was said before, means adding a couple veterans and a few quality draft picks. It also wouldn't hurt if their coach gave James and Wade a little more rest during games so they can be fresh in the fourth quarter. The main reason they didn't close games well was because of fatigue after playing 48 minutes a game for a 100+ game season.

They were good enough to dominate the East and make a strong push for the title after one season and with the lack of any type of bench play. They'll only improve next year.

 

The Heat don't have a first-round pick this year; it belongs to the Bulls. And I'm not sure they have one next year, either.

 

tough task in getting a few quality draft picks this year. they have 1 pick.

 

True, but they could just buy one, since you have spendthrift owners like the former Suns guy.

 

I understand this argument, but take a look at Dallas' salary cap compared to Miami. I don't think a hard cap will have much of an effect on the Heat for two reasons.

1. With a hard cap it will be a lot harder IMO to create the depth that a team like Dallas had to overcome the talent gap that comes with comparing the Big 3s.

2. If you create a system where there is less money available for free agents, those guys would be sacrificing less financially by "ring chasing" and coming to Miami for the minimum

In addition, because of how much less money Bosh/LeBron/Wade took the amount of money Miami has tied up in three guys really isn't much more than what the top 3 salaries are for a lot of teams. Lets compare to some of the teams they've faced in the playoffs:
Heat (Bosh, LeBron, Wade): $43.2 million
Celtics (Garnett, Pierce, Allen): $42.7 million
Mavs (Dirk, Chandler, Butler): $40.4 million
Bulls (Boozer, Deng, Rose: $31.3 million, but Noah balloons from $3.1 mil to $12 mil next season (a Boozer/Deng/Noah trio will make 37.8 mil) and Rose hasn't been extended yet.


A lot

 

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Yes they can win. They came within two wins of a title and did not march through a bad conference. Most of the games were close, and their three best players COULD have all played better. As such, the definitely can win a title.

Will they, hell if I know.

 

Deviljets is right. The harder the salary cap, the more players are going to pull James-Bosh-Wade maneuvers of their own, because if money isn't the reason for changing teams, that only leaves winning.

 

Yes. The tighter the cap, the more it hurts the middle class of players. Superstar guys are still going to get huge contracts, so that leaves less for everyone else. I imagine the main fight in the CBA will be about killing the weird option contracts the NBA seems to have - the midlevel exception - that overly compensates not-so-great players. I think Hollinger or Chad Ford pointed out that almost every MLE contract ends up being a disaster.