Biggest Spread in NFL

Was listening to Cowherd today and he had an oddsmaker on from Vegas, and he said that lots of books are taking the Pats off the board completely until a day or two before the game. I know THAT has never happened before.

 

Please enlighten me on gambling:

When you take the money line, you are betting +$120 and so on, so in order to win $100 back, you need to put $120 on the game? Now on a point spread, say if you were to take the Eagles, does it automatically give you the points? So if the Patriots did not win by that margin or better, you win the money?

 

Vegas isn't happy about the Patriots. The general public bets favorites which means Vegas loses when the Pats roll.

Serby had an article today on the future Pats lines. An oddsmaker said the Jet game would have a larger spread than the Dolphin game due to believe that BB will run it up on Mangenius.

SB odds start with the Pats over the Cowboys by 17 and goes up depending opponent.

 

OK, betting is illegal, but it is also the reason why coaches and teams must release an accurate injury report each week.

You can bet 1.20 to win a dollar if you like. The math on 120/100 just seems simpler.

Yes you do start the game with the Eagles winning 23-0 for instance if you have Eagles +23. The line of the game is used to confuse the bettor. Picking winners and losers is too easy. The line's job is to confuse you, and there is a very good reason for this.

To make any money gambling on NFL football, you need to win 60 percent of your games. There is something called a vig, and this vig normally stands at 10 percent. The bookie does not do this for charity work. The 10 percent is his cut. No matter what you bet, he gets 10 percent.

So, with a confusing line, you normally will get 50 percent of your games correct. The more you play, the closer you will move to a 50 percent success rate. So you are down 10 percent because you need to win 60 percent of the time to come out ahead.

The Sports Guy does something where he analyzes each game to the best of his ability and keeps a running tally of his won/loss for the season. He has his wife do the same thing, and she knows nothing about football. (I'll pick the Dolphins because Miami is hot and Shaq is there.) She beat him last year and she is beating him this year. Oh, they are both below a 60 percent success rate.

Read Casino by Nicholas Pileggi. There is a great chapter in there about idiots that bet on every NFL game. The true sharks will only bet on what they know will win. Sometimes they do not even bet a game the entire weekend because they do not have the right feeling.

I hope I gave you the correct info. I'm sure I will be corrected if I am wrong.

I do not gamble. I am too good at math, and I know those casinos and the bookie's watch did not come from all the winners.

 

It's a sucker's bet ... or is it?

 

Me, too. I was going to guess the third Dolphins cheerleader from the left.

 

Realistically, the Pats should win 52-10.

 

No, what it does is show that when playing with the same set of rules, certain organizations will outperform others. In baseball, certain organizations outperform others by spending more money while others (Cleveland comes to mind) do it by outperforming others with things like talent evaluation and player development.

 

Incredible accomplishment, busting through the mechanisms that push for parity in the NFL. It's what makes the system great.

An NFL dynasty, as opposed to a paid-for MLB one, is fully earned and, despite my hatred for the Pats, I know that their success wasn't significantly greased by what amounts to being part of a large-market lucky-sperm club.

Ann Richards might have as well been talking about the Yankees as George Bush: They were born on third base and thought they hit a triple.

 

Man.. I cannot believe how stupid you are about this.

I don't want 32 different teams winning the past 32 years, not unless they are all equally managed and have similar luck.

I want the best to have maximized their resources, which are similar to everyone else's.

That makes a great sports season.

Not some Calvinistic predestination of the Yankees and Red Sox winning the AL East because they have oodles of cash to cover up the few mistakes/injuries they might have during the year.

 

Ricky runs for 150.

Dolphins cover.