ABC Moving Kimmel To Compete Directly With Leno, Letterman

There was a rumor during the whole Conan-Leno mess that NBC might look to Tina Fey when Leno retires. I could see her being outstanding, but I could also see her getting bored doing it.

 

The other thing with Stewart is he makes so much money with his show and producing Colbert's show that it might be difficult even for a network to get him to leave at this point.

If CBS gave him a deal like what Letterman got I'm sure they could get him, but I really don't know that they'd be willing to do that.

 

Replacing Leno or Letterman just isn't as big a deal as it would have been for any comic even five years ago. Except for money, why would Fey or Stewart do it? And they already have lots of money. How many people in comedy even remember Johnny Carson anymore?

 

If there was ever a time that Leno and Letterman were ripe for the picking, it's now.

 

No way does Craig Ferguson replace David Letterman. They're not putting a foreigner who makes a lot of risque jokes in that time slot.

 

ABC has quietly been the smartest late night player of the networks for the last few years. Considering what NBC pays for Leno/Fallon and what CBS pays for Letterman/Ferguson, Kimmel/Nightline has been a bargain by comparison.

 

"Nightline" made $40M for ABC in 2011. "Jimmy Kimmel Live" made $100M.

"Tonight Show" made NBC $159.4 million last year. "Late Show" $154.6 million a year for CBS.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-latenightad-20120821,0,7735578.story

 

Ferguson has it in his contract that Letterman's job is his when Dave retires. But all that means is CBS will have to pay him a fee if he doesn't get the job. It would surprise me if Ferguson got moved to 11:30 and it would surprise me if Fallon took over the Tonight Show if Leno ever retires, but based on what happened to Conan, I think they may have a hard time finding A-list replacements for Leno and Letterman.

 

As we've discussed in the other thread, Jay Leno wasn't exactly an A-list replacement for Johnny Carson.

 

I wonder how many more years network television can sustain itself on the old advertising business model. The audiences for these legacy shows is withering, and in 5 or 10 years the next generation of the most desirable demographic will no longer bother to order even cable TV - they'll just stream content online.

Has anyone figured out how to monetize that yet?

 

General thoughts stoked by this thread:

- Leno ain't leaving The Tonight Show until he dies. The guy is a ridiculous worker, who does shit like booking five to 10 stand-up gigs the week he's on "vacation" for The Tonight Show. I believe his ratings are still slipping, but NBC is in such shit elsewhere that I don't think they touch late night for a couple years, unless something weird and drastic happens.

- Letterman retiring in the next five years wouldn't surprise me. He doesn't seem like nearly as much of a lifer as Leno, plus he has growing kids and what not.

- I think Stewart stays at Comedy Central because, if he was going to jump, he probably would have done it by now. I'm sure various networks have backed up the money truck to him at various points. If I'm Comedy Central, I'd be more worried about Colbert leaving. I don't think he has as high potential as Stewart on a network, but probably doesn't have as much profit participation in his show. Also, Colbert is the lynchpin of his show, whereas The Daily Show, I think you can patch it up around the edges with the correspondents taking turns hosting if Stewart ever left. (When they went from Kilborn to Stewart, the first two years of Stewart's reign, the correspondents would frequently sit in on the desk during his vacations.)

- I think Kimmel competes better vs. Leno and Letterman than Fallon and Ferguson. A lot of Kimmel's humor is based on his love of Letterman and Carson, that sort of smarmy stuff. He's not really doing weird, experimental stuff, so I think he'll play better at 11:30 instead of 12.

- Ferguson's show reminds me of Tom Snyder at times. It's not nearly as intellectual, of course, but he's not afraid to have 20 minute interviews with just one guest and other tangents, like five shows with dinner conversations and touring Scotland.

- Fallon is the 2010s Conan. I like him, but I doubt NBC would have the stomach for him at 11:30, because old people will probably hate him. And speaking of Conan, his TBS show is really disappointing to me. They basically let him do whatever he wants, so it tends to be a shit-ton of preening and working over the audience, which I don't really care so much for since I'm, you know, at home.

 

Jimmy Fallon = Conan O'Brien?

This might be the worst thing since Beef03 said Nickelback = Metallica.