2020 Presidential poll - Pre-Primary

We all knew Florida, Ohio and North Carolina were going to be big battlegrounds in 2016.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan were not expected to be battlegrounds but turned out (obviously) to be crucial to the election.

What states will be the surprise states in November?

 

As someone who voted for Abrams in the Georgia governor's race because she wasn't Brian Kemp, I don't get all the talk about her as a VP possibility. Nate Silver has been talking her up for a long time, and while he follows these things much more closely than I do, I don't understand his reasoning. If the idea is to help the ticket by checking identity boxes, are proponents assuming that African-Americans won't turn out unless there's someone who looks like them on the ticket? Seems like Biden's success with African-American voters runs counter to that. Or women won't turn out to vote against Trump unless there's a woman opposing him? Doubt it. And if you do think that being African-American and female will bring out so many more voters, why not Kamala Harris, who actually has relevant experience at both the executive (CA) and national level and actually campaigned? If the idea is that Abrams is well qualified, how? Most of the main candidates have experience with national policy issues, and Buttigieg has executive government experience, which may be at least as relevant, even if it's at the local level. (This to me is one of Warren's weaknesses.) I'm not sure how being a state senate minority leader helps prepare Abrams to govern on either front.

 

So Pete being mayor of a small-medium town somehow makes him more qualified than Warren as a senator?

You're the first one I've ever seen make that argument.

 

Not Bernie please.

But I'm committed to voting "Anyone but Trump" in November.

 

Anyone who says they’ll do anything they can to make sure Trump is not re-elected, and then refuses to say that they would endorse whomever the Dems nominate, needs to be told to GTFOH.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...rs-points-sexism-his-campaign/?outputType=amp

 

Well, I thought I was acknowledging that Buttigieg doesn't have experience with national policy issues like Senators do, which is a weakness of his. Might have been clearer if I had said "Most of the candidates have experience with national policy issues, and Buttigieg (who doesn't) has executive government experience..."

That said, yes, I think executive experience in government helps prepare one for the presidency, and it's lacking from Warren's resume.* Being a Senator gets you familiar with some of the national issues, but you get to pick & choose which few issues to specialize in, and you don't have to manage anything except a smallish staff. Presidents, governors, and even mayors have to deal with everyone and a much wider range of concerns, and they have to manage much larger organizations that have lots of responsibilities not limited to supporting their principal. Governors used to be more prominent candidates for the presidency, I think for that reason, but the Democrats don't have too many these days, and the ones they do haven't captured much public interest. Even Vice Presidents and some First Ladies have a perspective on the requirements of governing that I think is broader than that of a Senator or Representative.

* Granted, it was lacking from Obama's resume too, and he turned out pretty well.

 

Not sure why Tulsi's not in this list, since it includes someone I'd never heard of and, according to a quick google search, is polling between 0 and 1 percent.

But count me as a vote for Tulsi.

 

While I agree that Deval Patrick shouldn't have been included, neither should Tulsi. For one, is her campaign even active? She's not in Iowa at all, though it appears there are some events scheduled for New Hampshire. Right or wrong, the one thing Bloomberg and Steyer can do to avoid traditional campaigning is to buy TV ads to introduce themselves to the electorate. Hardly anyone knows who Gabbard is, so why is she not in Iowa?

Hard to take a candidate seriously who is that far under water.

 

I only mentioned her because I keep getting Tusli 2020 ads when I open this thread

 

Could Arizona be in play come November?
It could wind up being battleground.

 

Aren't people also voting for the vice-president, with full knowledge that he/she will take over in the event the president doesn't fill his/her full term in office?

 

The Tom Steyer voter needs to explain himself or herself.