2013 National League MVP

It's good to know that you're unflinching in your stupidity.

 

By the way, McCutchen's ratios may be great since the start if August, but his numbers were pretty damn good at the end of July.

At that point McCutchen was batting .301/.374/.494 with 18 HR, 59 RBI, 66 runs scored and 21 stolen bases. He is also a hell of an outfielder.

Consider that all of that comes for a team that had trouble scoring runs and yes, it is absolutely more valuable than the 30 saves in 32 chances Grilli had to that point.

Xan, whether or not you think McCutchen is the MVP is not the point. You made a silly point along the way.

 

Well this thread took a not unexpected turn.

 

Get out of here, Joe. No one wants to hear your argument for Matt Carpenter.

 

Ah, been reading too much Post-Dispatch. But McCutchen is the MVP, no doubt, and rightly so.

 

Xan, that "team save percentage" stat is very misleading. It also includes "blown saves" in the seventh and eighth innings by set-up guys, which very few players, managers or fans consider to be actual save situations. It really has nothing to do with "a closer's role" and who can pitch well in that situation.

So it includes games like this one on May 28, when the Blue Jays scored one run off Cory Gearrin in the 7th to tie it up. The game went to extras, the Braves scored one run in the 10th and Craig Kimbrel pitched a scoreless inning to get the save.

The truth is, any team with a lead in the 9th inning wins the game about 90-95% of the time ... no matter who's pitching. Here are some random "leading at the start of the 9th inning" win percentages for 2013:

Red Sox, 96.3%
Pirates, 95.0%
Braves, 94.9%
Yankees, 94.4%

Twins, 98.2%
Marlins, 97.7%(!)
Phillies, 95.0%
Cubs, 93.4%
Mariners, 90.8%
Astros, 89.1%

Bottom line: It doesn't matter who pitches the 9th inning when you have a lead. With three outs left, you're very, very likely to win most games.

The trick, of course, is getting a lead. Which the Twins, Marlins, Astros, etc., have a lot of trouble doing.

 

The guy who signed B.J. Ryan for $47 million approves of Xan's stance. So does the guy who signed Jonathan Papelbon for $50 million.

 

Oh, and one other thing: That "90-95% winning with a lead in the 9th" stat is true at any point in the last half-century, no matter how bullpens were used or how scoring rates were up/down or any other factor.

Consider, the winning percentage for ALL teams in each season when holding a lead at the start of the 9th inning:

1953: 95.4%
1963: 94.8%
1973: 93.7%
1983: 95.0%
1993: 95.3%
2003: 95.7%
2013: 95.0%

We don't have full PBP data beyond 1950, but you can clearly see that it doesn't matter whether it's a tiring starter pitching the 9th inning like in 1953 or a three-inning "fireman" like Rollie Fingers in 1973 or a one-inning "closer" like Eckersley or Rivera from 1993 to the present.

If you have a lead in the 9th inning, your team is going to win 95% of the time. Period.

As much as I love Craig Kimbrel, I could never support him for the Cy Young Award unless he pitches more innings. Same with Rivera — who, btw, I do feel should be in the Hall of Fame because he is dominant at his chosen role, no matter how little value that role actually provides compared to starters or position players. 1,000 dominant innings over the course of a long career is plenty valuable in the long run. But the modern-day definition of "closers"? They really are a dime a dozen. Get your value out of them and then move on.

 

I'm a Cards fan, but the clear winner is McCutcheon. The Pirates would be struggling to break .500 without him; with him they're a playoff team. Nobody else on their team has such a dramatic effect. Puig suffers from lack of playing time in my eyes; if he'd done what he's done beginning in early April, he very well could have won it.

As for the rest of the field, the two Cards guys steal votes from each other, Goldschmidt plays on too bad a team, and Freeman, and I don't have the stats to back this up, but somehow just doesn't seem as valuable and important to Atlanta as McCutcheon to the Pirates or the NL playoff race. I think the Braves still make the postseason without Freeman, maybe just not with quite the cushion. Kershaw - for a pitcher to win MVP, I feel like he has to make up for lack of playing time by putting up almost comical, Playstation-type numbers, and for as good as he's been, he hasn't done that. Cy Young, definitely, MVP, not quite.