2010 World Series of Poker running thread

Russ Scott .....

http://luckydogpoker.com/?page_id=202

SHOULD YOU EVER FOLD POCKET ACES IN NO-LIMIT HOLD’EM?

Looking down at pocket aces is sure to get your poker juices flowing. But is there ever a situation when you should fold A-A before the flop in no-limit Texas hold’em?

The answer is yes!

 

Bernard Lee.....

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=lee_bernard&id=2501586

However, you would never consider folding aces preflop, right?

You may. You also might think I'm just a bit crazy to even consider this move. After all we are talking aces -- the best starting hand possible. Nonetheless, there is one specific time during satellite tournaments where it can make sense to fold aces preflop.

 

How many times are people going to say "except for satellites and other weird payout structures" and you are going to respond with quotes talking about satellites, acting as if you are proving us wrong?

1) It is correct to fold aces in certain situations in satellite tournaments and other tournaments with extremely, freakishly flat payout structures.

2) That fact has nothing to do with whether it is ever correct to fold them in tournaments with ordinary payout structures, even in the hypothetical "9-way all-in" that has been brought up.

And the stats you gave us are worthless.

1) 16 tournaments is a tiny sample
2) We have no idea how many people were in those tournaments. If they were large MTTs, 75% cashing is impossible to sustain over the long run, and you got lucky.
3) It's possible that you are an excellent poker player despite being wrong about this particular issue. But you are still wrong.

 

I'm NOT wrong as I just showed -- and you just admitted - that there are indeed some times when it is proper to fold aces.

And it doesn't just have to be in a satellite - it could be in a tournament you paid a lot of money to get into and there are 100 people getting paid and 102 left with three or four extremely short stacks who are not likely to survive the blinds.

It makes absolutely no sense that close to a cash with that many people teetering on the edge - especially if you paid $2K or something to get into a tourney -- to put all of your chips at risk.

You slow down for a few hands, get your cash then the other thing is this - right after the two are eliminated and everyone is cashing is when you can really take advantage of people because the smaller stacks, all knowing they have secured some money, start loosening up.

That - right after the "everyone left has cashed" announcement is a great time to build your stack for a run at the final table.

It is absolutely the correct play to fold them in that situtation.

 

Doyle Brunson says that with AA, you will either win a small pot, or lose a big pot.

 

Here is another good one:

Only three players get paid and there are four left....

Blinds are 250-500

Player 1 - All-in for 4500
Player 2 - Call All-in for his stack, 4499
Player 3 - Call All-in for his stack, 4499
Player 4 (you) -- have 300 left.

Do you fold em?

 

The day Phil Hellmuth folds pocket aces pre-flop is the day I'm an astronaut.

 

By referring to the fact that AA loses a higher percentage of the time in multi-way hands, you are showing that you don't understand the odds as well as you think you do.

There are a number of odds that need to be considered here.

1) Pot odds. The number of chips you stand to win X the odds of winning compared against the number of chips you have to risk. The pot odds of AA in multi-way pot are still absolutely fantastic. As you said, against 9 random hands, it will still win 17% of the time. A 1 in 6 chance to win 9x is clearly positive pot odds. I think we can all agree on this point without too much hesitation, right?

The problem is that in a tournament, we aren't playing to win chips, we are playing to win money, which we get by finishing high enough in the tournament.

That brings us to the second odds:

2) Expected value of tournament position. If there are X people left and you have Y% of the available chips and the payout structure is Z, what is your average winning?

In virtually all tournament situations *WITH A STANDARD PAYOUT STRUCTURE* (I don't know how much more clearly I can emphasize that), 9x-ing your chip stack will *more* than 9x your expected value for the tournament. Properly calculating your average payout from different chip positions will show you that winning big pots gives you more monetary value than chip value. A 17% chance to increase your expected return more than 900% is a no-brainer. It's a must-do.

This clearly shows that you do *not* know what you are talking about. You've found a few quotes from pros that support the satellite issue that you've brought up repeatedly but we all agree on. I dare you to find even two that agree with you on this.

 

There's no way to know that without knowing the payout structure. If you google around online for an "Independent Chip Model" calculator, it will tell you the correct mathematical play.

 

I know he is the Godfather of poker, but I don't know that I agree completely with him.

I have won some monster pots with them.

And I know this - I get tired of hearing people at the table say stuff like "I hate Aces, I always lose with them" or "I hate Kings" or "I hate A-K"

I always respond - give me that hand every single time.

How can you hate Aces?

Is it because most people don't know how to play them or most people think they are automatically supposed to win with them?

I know this - I love Aces.

And for the record I have only folded them once, so let's not make this into I'm some kind of ultra-tight weak player who doesn't value them.

One strategy that I have begun to employ in the past three or four years, especially in cash games is, I don't play unless I am raising or calling a raise.

I never limp any more preflop, that just leads to trouble, especially with all these interent sharks playing more live poker at casinos.

And I am not afraid to raise my big blind - that is another thing that is hilarious to me, the number of players who are like holding their breath and hoping nobody raises when they are in the big blind so they can see the flop.....

Why not raise it if you have a real hand?

I know the value of hidden strength and all that, but why play for a small pot when you have a big hand, especially since you know in lower limit games like 1-2 NL or even 2-5 NL, it is generally no fold-em, hold-em for anyone who has already put money in the pot, even the limpers.

 

The poker boom is dying out because everyone's an expert now. No one wants to listen to that.

 

That's the damn truth. Raked poker is almost impossible to beat unless your opponents suck hard, and even the bad players now are good enough to make it tough to beat the rake.