2014 NFL predictions thread

You're an idiot or don't understand what you're watching if you think Denver played anything close to a physical brand of football last season. And, no, there weren't physical teams in the AFC. It was a down year for the conference.

 

I don't bet Super Bowl odds but I love me some win-loss total parlays. I'll be in LV next month.

While I generally "play" the college football W/L numbers (heavy on the SEC this year -- like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama to cover their numbers and Mizzou, Vandy and Texas A&M to be unders)

Any glaring "value" in the NFL Win/Loss World from the trusty degenerates here?

Gut tells me. Over: BEARS (and I hate the Bears), SAINTS, COLTS, EAGLES. Under: CHIEFS, LIONS, COWBOYS, VIKINGS.

Broncos 11 (over -115) 13
49ers 11 (over +100) 12
Seahawks 11(over -110) 13
Packers 10 (over -105) 8
Patriots 10 (over -125) 12
Saints 9.5 (over -105) 11
Bengals 9 (over -115) 11
Colts 9 (over -115) 11
Steelers 9 (over -110) 8
Bears 8.5 (over -105) 8
Eagles 8.5 (over -125) 10
Panthers 8.5 (over -120) 12
Ravens 8.5 (over -110) 8
Texans 8.5 (over -110) 2
Chargers 8 (over -120) 9
Chiefs 8 (over -125) 11
Cowboys 8 (over -120) 8
Falcons 8 (over -120) 4
Lions 8 (over -115) 7
Dolphins 7.5 (-over -125) 8
Cardinals 7 (over -120) 10
Giants 7 (over -110) 7
Redskins 7 (over -110) 3
Bills 6.5 (over -110) 6
Browns 6.5 (over -105) 4
Buccaneers 6.5 (over -130) 4
Jets 6.5 (over -120) 8
Rams 6.5 (over -120) 7
Titans 6.5 (over -110) 7
Vikings 6.5 (over -110) 5
Raiders 5 (over +110) 4
Jaguars 4.5 (over +100) 4

 

I really think you are putting yourself out there banking on Peyton to have another great year. Might be an injury, he might finally show his age, but the Broncos season is riding on the arm of a 38-year-old two years removed from serious neck surgery. Yeah, even if he declines 20 percent, he's still better than most quarterbacks in the league - but it could go quickly. See Favre, Brett.

 

I absolutely love the over on the Saints and under on the Chiefs on that W/L bet. And I think the Rams are going to have a very tough climb to reach their number. Would probably bet the under on them.

 

I'll say it.

2014 Broncos has all of the feel of 2010 Vikings yet it won't be a full implosion. There won't be a 2010 Packers-like squad that gets hot towards the end this year in the AFC West.

Denver's only saving grace is that the division is weak. The Chiefs will have a "fallback" year and the Chargers don't have the horses.

If I thought Denver would go 9-7, I'd include them on the "UNDER" teams for my parlay picks. I see them at 10-6 but a rather mundane 10-6. Good enough to win the division but not to escape the wild-card round or, if they do, to meekly bow out to the Patriots, Ravens or Colts.

 

Now playing the "week by week" prediction game for various teams.

First thoughts.
How do the Chiefs not start out 1-5?
Bears could win 11 with the smart coach/good QB combo.
Cowboys could easily lose their last 6 games.
Colts still get two games against Jax, Houston, Tennessee plus the Bengals, Browns and Dallas in December. Winning ten feels way too easy.

I'd love to say my Packers will win 12 games this year but the Rodgers/McCarthy dynamic keeps me away. I wonder if this will be the year they finally have the Jeff George-June Jones sideline battle that is barely under the surface.

 

The Broncos will electrify now that Peyton is running the read option.

 

I'd love to get the breakdown of volume on various teams. Which odds have moved the most and least. Which teams are getting the most and least action.
Interconference games will probably decide most of these bets. AFC W v. NFC W, AFC N v. NFC S, AFC S v. NFC E, AFC E v. NFC S. I have to think all the NFC east teams should at least take two from the AFC S.

 

I have to wonder if the skepticism here about the Broncos is based on the "last game I saw" fallacy. They got the shit kicked out of them in the Super Bowl, but to stretch that into a suspicion Manning is going to fall off the table seems like a big leap to me. Brady's all of one year younger than Peyton, and nobody, quite rightly, is suspecting he's reaching the end of the line, even though the Pats' last game of 2013 was also a dismal if less spectacular failure. FWIW, the total wins lines seem to be based on a macro forecast of much more parity in the league than last season. I'd think New England, New Orleans and the Colts would have to struggle mightily during the season to hit their numbers on the nose.

 

And once again, fart boy relies on name calling when the glaring flaws in his arguments are pointed out. You are one of those fans who can't think past the last game you watched and somehow believe that the team that lost the Super Bowl sucks.

 

It isn't that the Broncos were blown out, the last team to lose a Super Bowl and make it back to the next one were the Bills twenty years ago. It's that Manning's production at his age is unprecedented (and I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady hit a similar wall, he was sacked more times last year - 40 - than he was since his first year). One amazing stat for Manning. He's never been sacked more than 29 times (4th season) in a season. Since the 29, he's only been sacked more than 20 times in three seasons (23, 21 and 21)