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Zack Greinke: Hall of Fame?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Sep 30, 2015.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    The question is, I guess: Is he in already? (Probably not.) If not, how much work does he have to do?

    The resume:

    12 seasons
    W-L: 141-93
    ERA: 3.36
    IP: 2,086 2/3
    SO: 1,879
    ERA+: 122
    All-Star Games: 3
    Cy Young Awards: 1 (maybe 2)
    CG: 14
    SHO: 4
    20 Wins: 0
  2. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    A 3.36 ERA and 141 wins? He's not close. With an ERA that high (it would be the 12th worst among HOFers), he'd need to get to 2,500 Ks and 250 wins. Interestingly, only six pitchers have gotten in with single digit shutouts - One was Satchel Paige, four were relievers and one was born before the Civil War began.
  3. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    You're right. He's not. I thought he would be closer than that. I think that 200 wins and two Cys will probably get him in there, despite the mediocre Hall ERA. But I have a feeling Arrieta is about to steal that from him.

    He could help himself with a monster post-season.
  4. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    He's been great the past three seasons, so it's easy to feel like he's a HOF pitcher, but in the eight seasons prior, he had only one great season, in 2009 (2.16 ERA, 242K). But he was pretty mediocre in the other seven, with ERAs no lower than 3.44 and only two 200K seasons. When Greinke is great, he is GREAT. But he's had some really middling seasons. Wonder how much money he cost himself with a 4.14 ERA in his walk year with the Royals in 2010?
  5. Jake_Taylor

    Jake_Taylor Well-Known Member

    Will voters give much consideration to wins by the time he's on the ballot? I also wonder if they will take into account his mental health issues early in his career when looking at his overall ERA.

    That said, he's 31 and three of the best four years of his career have come in his last three, so I don't think he's done building his HOF resume quite yet.
  6. Chef2

    Chef2 Well-Known Member

  7. Captain_Kirk

    Captain_Kirk Well-Known Member

    3 All star appearances and not even top 10 in CY voting 7 of 12 years.

    Would seem like he has a lot of work to do to make this discussion warranted. Maybe we check back in on this thread in 2020.
  8. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    When it comes to voting for something like Cy Young, a seasonal award, wins are almost irrelevant. But if you're looking at a Hall of Fame career, wins have to come into the equation at some point. If you're a Hall of Fame pitcher, at some point during your 13-, 15-, 20-year career, you have to win some ballgames, right?
  9. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    You do, but really they're just a product of holding scoring down over a significant number of starts and innings. ERA and IP gauge the pitcher's performance itself. ERA just gauges the byproduct. Yet I still find myself, when doing these evaluations, looking at W-L first. It's so ingrained.
  10. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    Agreed, but it's ingrained for a good reason: You don't win 250 games if you suck. W-L is a quick, easy way to gauge if a pitcher had a great career. Other stats - ERA, in particular - tell a much more complete story, but if you show me two pitchers and say Pitcher A won 284 games and Pitcher B won 110, I can pretty much tell you who had the better career in a heartbeat. If you tell me Pitcher A has a 2.89 ERA and Pitcher B has a 3.25 ERA, I need more information (namely, IP) before I can tell you who had the better career.
  11. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Dick's playing the long game here. This is his replacement thread when Buehrle retires.
    JackReacher and amraeder like this.
  12. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    Buehrle and his 3.81 ERA won't sniff the HOF.
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