Your 2009 hurricane forecast

I actually think they come up with this by using the same ping-pong ball machines the Florida Lottery uses for its 4-ball games.<blockquote> There's a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms this hurricane season, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three of them major.

So said the National Oceanic and Administration Atmospheric on Thursday, when it released its latest forecast for the storm season.

It's close to the forecast issued earlier by the experts at Colorado State University, who say to expect six hurricanes, two of them major. Major hurricanes are Category 3 or above, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. </blockquote>http://www.keysnet.com/212/story/104594.html

 

I predict there will be 1,000 hurricanes. Unless there's not.

 

And one will be named Vinnie.

 

Four to seven hurricanes would actually be a pretty light year by 1995-today standards. Of course, if one of them went Cat 5 into Miami, New Orleans or Houston, I can stifle that light year jazz.

 

Yep, it's not about quantity, it's about quality.

 

Not looking good for the Gulf Coast. Then again, what else is new.

It's so weird how drastically it changes every couple of years. I remember when I was younger, the Carolinas always got whacked by hurricanes. Then it was, and still is, Florida. And now it looks like the Gulf Coast is now getting beaten with the ugly stick.

 

My step father swears that this report heped kill the Florida housing market the year after Katrina, and they were never touched that year.

 

Florida got crushed in 2004 with Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all hitting different parts of the state. That might have had something to do with it, too.

 

Is it me or do they always say there's going to be a ton of hurricanes?

 

People who try to forecast hurricanes are dipshits. Then, midway through, they redo their predictions. Dipshits. Here's a forecast you can count on. It will be hot and steamy in the American south east this summer. There will be storms. No need to panic.

 

Unless there's a strong El Nino, big storm seasons have been the norm since 1995, when the long-anticipted busy cycle began. 2006 and 07 were lulls (relatively) brought on by El Nino and unusual amounts of Saharan dust blowing into the eastern Atlantic and fucking up would-be hurricanes. Last year got busy again. This is actually a near-normal season, and slow by the busy cycle standards.

 

I think I read somewhere that, on average, there's around 10 tropical storms/hurricanes a year. Some years (like 2005) are worse; some (like 2006) are better.
So if you stay close enough to that medium, one way or another, you can still say you were close and it's not an exact science. Meanwhile, by going over the yearly average, you can stay close enough to say you were right while also generating enough concern to get headlines and more research grants.
I don't think any researcher predicted there would be 28 or 29 storms in 2005, but I'll bet a shitload of them said there'd be 15 or 20 in 2006 (when there were only 10).
Bottom line, if you live along the East Coast or Gulf Coast, keep your head up. It's part of life here. Why the fuck is there a major hurricane research center in Colorado, anyway?