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What's the U.S. stock market going to do on Monday?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by YankeeFan, Aug 23, 2015.

  1. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    When everyone's selling, buy. When everyone buying, sell.

    There are stocks of some quality companies that are 20, 25, 30 percent cheaper than they were a month ago.
     
    Bronco77 likes this.
  2. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Ragu, I agree with you on one thing -- trying to pick the bottom is a mug's game. But so is straight-line projection, either up or down.
     
    TowelWaver likes this.
  3. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Of all the things my friend (referenced earlier) has to do, listening to (and being responsive to) the "technical analysis" crowd would have to be the worst. "Oh yeah, the 62-week carry butterfly's only 35 basis points below its momentum-adjusted trend? Let's bet the ranch!" My friend is a good guy -- if I had enough money to make it worth his while he'd manage my money -- but he knows that stuff's so much hooey. But he also knows where his bread is buttered. And if he doesn't make those trades, someone else will.
     
  4. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Technical analysis is like a lot of things. There are some people -- but they are relatively few -- who are very skilled at discerning patterns in different market environments and giving themselves tradable edges -- either in the short term or on a longer term basis. It isn't bullshit. It is legit. Then there are people selling snake oil and cloaking it in technical terms. There are a lot of those people. Don't lump the former in with the latter.
     
  6. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The PBOC just cut rates. ... They also lowered their reserve requirements to try to inject some liquidity into the Chinese markets.

    U.S. stock futures were already rebounding a bit and bounced on that news. In the grand scheme of things, it is like trying to plug a dam with your finger. China's markets have a long way down to go still. And it is going to play out over a prolonged period of time. China has a lot of foreign reserves with which to try to artificially prop up the markets to keep a collapse from happening overnight. But it cushions the inevitable at best, and creates residual problems at worst. There is still a long way down to go there. Expect it to happen over a period of time, not overnight, and for it to have residual effects that create spillover effects for a while to come.

    There should be a pretty strong open for U.S. markets today. Maybe it will lead to a rally that holds.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2015
  7. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

  8. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    The rate cut has nothing to do with monetary policy as we understand it. It's just another signal by China's government that it will do anything to maintain short-term growth and for stock market investors, profitability. Our own country's newspaper industry shows how well that works.
     
    old_tony likes this.
  9. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    My colleague's brother is a partner at Goldman. He says they're buying like crazy.
     
  10. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    That is "monetary policy" as we understand it. Particularly since 2008, when central banks turned into asset bubble makers.

    My point is that this is going to come to an end. The PBOC, the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the BOJ. ... THEY are responsible for bond yields being so low worldwide--through a variety of measures, some which have been very extreme. ... which has driven up stock prices and created other asset bubbles all over the world. They have encouraged more debt, in the face of debt crises, rather than finally saying enough is enough. That is going to blow up eventually. It is inevitable. It was inevitable a year ago. And it is inevitable today. Even if it doesn't happen this week.
     
  11. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    Dumb question: Is the U.S. manipulating China's meltdown behind the scenes? Is that even possible?
     
  12. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    No, we can't even manipulate our own economy.
     
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