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What's the U.S. stock market going to do on Monday?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by YankeeFan, Aug 23, 2015.

  1. da man

    da man Well-Known Member

    Gas is down to $2.13 here and my employer bought our airline tickets to our big conference in October this past week because fares had dropped so low.

    You might do better with both after this.
     
  2. amraeder

    amraeder Well-Known Member

    Hopefully never comes to pass
    NYSE Will Suspend Stock Trading If S&P 500 Index Plunges 7%
     
  3. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    doctorquant likes this.
  4. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Hmmmmmm ...
     
  5. amraeder

    amraeder Well-Known Member

    Seems like they won't need the 10-run rule.
    After initial drop, been a slow climb back up. Still down, but not nearly as badly.
    upload_2015-8-24_11-48-50.png
     
  6. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I think we have probably reached a turning point. For several years it has been "buy the dip." Now it is going to be "sell the rip."

    Stocks tried to rip after Europe closed and actually got impressively close to flat last hour.

    But we are taking another leg down right now. I think this is probably going to be a tough close.

    Even if there isn't carnage between 3 and 4 pm. ... this isn't over by a long shot. There is going to be more to go whether it happens quickly or over a matter of weeks. Stocks are way, way, way overvalued and have been propped up artificially, and its not the kind of thing that is going to flush itself out in one day when the world comes to its senses. You have oil tanking right now, the commodities complex getting hammered and ridiculous currency volatility. There is way too much uncertainty out there.

    The only thing that can put off this reality is if the Federal Reserve rolls in with more quantitative easing. At this point, even simply not following through on a measly 25 point basis point hike isn't going to hold off a stock market pullback. It's going to take bigger guns than that. More QE will be the absolute worst thing to do in the long term. Which is why I won't be surprised to hear rumblings about it soon. They have fucked the world up enough, so why not some more.
     
  7. amraeder

    amraeder Well-Known Member

    Looks like its been a fairly brutal past couple of hours.
     
  8. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    Somewhere over the years, it seems a great number of people have looked at crashes as buying opportunities. One of these days they're going to be looked upon as suckers.

    Meanwhile, foreign markets remain down. Somebody's going to be right and somebody's going to be wrong.
     
  9. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    There's a break in the action until Asian markets open around 9 p.m. EDT. OT, crashes ARE great buying opportunities, when they're over or almost over. We don't know that last part yet, but if you bought stocks the in late October 1987 or early spring of 2009, you made a boatload of money.
     
    Bronco77 likes this.
  10. Bronco77

    Bronco77 Well-Known Member

    I subscribe to that line of thinking, too -- but unfortunately it's so difficult (at least for me) to make a call on the bottom of the market. I loaded up on stocks in early '09 when the Dow was just below 7,000 (and people told me I was crazy), but it may have been the only time in almost 30 years of being in the market that I got the timing almost right.
     
  11. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Seeing as even after today that gives you a 100 percent-plus return in six years, I think you got the right time to be right.
     
    doctorquant likes this.
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I'd be very careful about trying to pick a bottom right now. 1) There is more at play than most people realize right now. There is a lot of global instability brewing, and the signs are blaring -- a broad commodity collapse signaling global stagnation, wild currency moves the last few weeks, emerging market turmoil that is getting lost in all of the cross discussions, and dozens of potential credit crises brewing due to massive leverage and debt and artificial interest rates. 2) U.S. equities are STILL very overvalued by a lot of very reasonable metrics. The only thing that has propped up these asset markets the last few years has been central bank action -- what created the credit crises that are brewing. They are very rapidly losing control of the mess they created. Maybe they can pull a rabbit out of their hat and prop things back up for the time being, but I wouldn't gamble with this. Markets can go down very quickly. 3) What we saw the last few days is nothing. Most of the people in the current markets haven't lived through a bear market. They can get VERY nasty.

    If you are going to try to pick a bottom, I'd at least wait for a bounce -- whether it is in the next few days or if the sell off first continues some more first, whenever you get that bounce. Even if there isn't a lot more of a sell off to come, it is almost definitely going to retest this morning's lows off of that bounce before you get a big recovery. That would be the earliest time to gamble.

    The S&P closed just below 1900 today. This could go down a long way over a prolonged period of time before it is over. Pulling an arbitrary number. ... a 30 percent pullback off the highs in May would take the S&P below 1500. I put my & Ms. Ragu's retirement money into cash more than a year ago when I thought things were getting way overvalued. The number I have had in my head for buying back with both fists is somewhere between 1000 and 1450 on the S&P.
     
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