What's the criteria for an NFL HC to be in the HOF?

Schottenheimer, no. No playoff success. At least he had the same issues with Cleveland, KC and San Diego.

I think that Marv Levy is to HOF Coaches what Warren Moon is to HOF Quarterbacks. His presence in the HOF should open the door for others with similar records.

Levy went to Four Super Bowls where his teams promptly lost to a 9-point underdog led to Jeff Hostetler, a Mark Rypien-led Washington teams and then two lobsided losses to the '92 and '93 Cowboys (admittedly, one of the last true dynasties of the NFL). For me, there is an irony that Levy is in the HOF but Jimmy Johnson, who beat Levy's Bills by 35 and 17 points, respectively, won't get in. (Not saying Johnson deserves to but comparing it with Levy's induction).

Reeves had four lopsided losses with two teams, similar to Levy, although he only ran into one "so-so" Super Bowl opponents (1987 Washington team). The rest were all-time teams.

 

Don Coryell foretold the modern game.
It's also about leaving a footprint.
Coryell's ideas are now getting guys into the Hall of Fame.

 

With Schottenheimer, his case is good but not great. It's not so much the lack of playoff wins as it is that I can't really think of a way that his coaching style truly changed the game. He didn't really bring anything to offenses or defenses that was innovative.

Shanahan has a better case given his playoff track record but a lot depends on what you consider to be his impact on the game and how much it was. I would imagine the zone blocking scheme his teams used would be something people brought up, but as a Bronco fan, I believe Alex Gibbs had more to do with it.

Reeves doesn't really have a HOF case. He had little success with the Giants and there was nothing he did that changed the way the game was played.

 

Schottenheimer worked for Modell, Peterson, Snyder and A.J. Smith.
Four of the bigger tools/fractious personalities in the game in the last 30 years.
I think that bears some scrutiny when it's time for him to be evaluated.

 

Shottenheimer's case is ALL ABOUT lack of postseason success.

Here are the coaches who have won more games than him: Shula, Halas, Landry, Lambeau, Brown.

That's it. Belichick probably won't pass him this season, it'll be the first month next season. No other active coach is within 30 wins. Shanahan and Coughlin are the only ones inside of 70.

The guy won 61 percent of his games. He made the playoffs 13 times in 21 years. He won 8 division titles. He had 11 10-plus win seasons. He had two losing seasons, one being a 7-9 and the other being 4-12.

And then you look at the playoffs. Four times he won at least 12 games in the regular season and lost his first playoff game. Nine of his 13 playoff appearances were 0-fers. He lost two of the most gut-wrenching conference title games of all-time

If he would have gotten to just one Super Bowl, I'd bet he'd have gotten in. But that playoff resume kills him compared to everyone else in.

Reeves definitely has a hall of fame case. For him, it's the lack of the ring because he certainly got there enough.

The only guys in front of him are the five previously mentioned, Shottenheimer, Belichich and Noll. He's got a winnging playoff record at 11-9.

He's got four trips to the Super Bowl, three in a four-year span. The only ones with at least four conference titles are Shula, Belichick, Landry, Gibbs, Grant, Levy and Noll.

When compared to Levy, there's almost no difference to see how one is in and the other isn't.

 

How much will Shanahan's run with the Redskins hurt his chances? He was already getting grief for not winning in Denver once Elway retired. His stay in Washington has been worse than his later years with the Broncos.

 

It certainly won't help.

I don't know that a coach has to "change the way the game is played" to be deserving. Shanahan implemented zone blocking in Denver, which worked incredibly well there, but he also had an offensive line that would have been successful in any system.

I'm impressed with coaches who turn teams around. Schottenheimer definitely did that, but then he couldn't close. Reeves gets points for taking two teams to the Super Bowl. So do Holmgren and Vermeil.

 

Shanahan gets points for his uncanny ability to take pretty much any random guy from the parking lot and turn him into a 1,000-plus-yard rusher.

 

George Allen is in the HOF, 2-7 in the playoffs. both wins came in the same year, so 6 times he was 1 and done. 7 of his 12 years he posted 10 or more wins in a 14 game season and never had a losing season. Let Dick Nixon call a Super Bowl play.
Shottenheimer compares favorably to George Allen.

 

The more this discussion goes on, the more I hope Belichick is the only coach to go in in the next 20 years.

 

Funny you mention Holmgren.

If the Packers would have won over the Broncos in January 1998, the trajectory changes for so many. Elway is seen as a Super Bowl loser and, I imagine, he retires instead of coming back for one more year. Holmgren is canonized in the Lombardi Tradition in Green Bay, having won multiples. Favre probably hangs it up in his mid-30's instead of his annual crippling of every locker room after Thanksgiving from 2005 on...

Would Shanahan have survived, given the 1996 playoff debacle against Jacksonville?

Yet Denver came in, with Terrell Davis at his peak and a Packer team that simply assumed, being a -13 favorite, that they'd steamroll. It also shows how quickly the edge can be lost. Green Bay in 1996 was dominant and self-assured. The 1997 team had nearly the same cast of characters but there was something just a...little off. Still 13-3 but, like the 1986 Bears, it wasn't quite right.

I wonder, if the Packers won that second one, does Holmgren step away from Green Bay in, say, 1999 or 2000 and never return to coaching? At least he saw "the window" closing halfway through 1998 in Green Bay and got out as soon as Seattle gave him Coach/GM.

For leading the pre-Russell Wilson Seahawks to within a few suspect calls of a Super Bowl title, that's almost worthy of HOF on its own.

 

Looking at base stats of HC in HOF:

There are 22 coaches listed in the Hall. Two (Conzelman and Chamberlin) are in for more than coaching, so taking them out of the equations. That leaves 20 coaches in the Hall.

Three of them have regular season winning percentages above .700, and all are in the Hall: Madden, Allen, Lombardi. (For what it’s worth Chamberlin is also above .700) There are no other coaches with .700 plus winning percentages so ergo, if you win .700 of your games you are a Hall lock.

There eight retired coaches all time with .650 to .699 records in the regular season. One of those was Tommy Hughit, who coached for five seasons in the 1920s so I am taking him out as a legit HOF candidate). Of the remaining seven, four are in the Hall (Halas, Flaherty, Shula and Brown). The three on the outside are Dungy, Collier and Jim Lee Howell. (note that four current coaches are above .650, Belichick, Payton, Mike Smith and John Harbaugh. At this point, it appears a .650 winning pct. and two titles makes you a HOF lock.

There are 14 retired coaches with .600 to .649 records in the regular season. Six of them are in the Hall: Lambeau, Grant, Gibbs, Walsh, Landry, Owen. Five of them have multiple championships, and Grant has one (I’m giving him 1969 NFL title despite SB loss) and made three other championship game appearances (three SB losses). Of the eight on the outside of the hall, you have five (Siefert, Switzer, Cowher, Shaw and Potsy Clark) all have at least one title. None coached in more than two championship games. The three other coaches outside title bubble are Red Miller, Paddy Driscoll and Marty S.) This is a tough call, because Marty, Cowher and Siefert ( I guess) could all get in, but right now it appears a .600 winning percentage, two titles and/or three title game appearances is a lock.

There are 18 retired coaches with .550 to .599 records in the regular season. Six are in the Hall: Greasy Neale, Stram, Parcells, Noll, Levy, Gillman. Four of the six all have multiple titles, with Gilliam only having one (AFL). Gillman also made five other title games (4 with the Chargers, one with the Rams). Levy has none, but made four straight title games. Notables not in the hall in this group include Buddy Parker (two titles, three appearances), Jimmy Johnson (two titles), Mike Holmgren (1 title), Brian Billick (1 title), Don Coryell (no titles), Mike Holmgren (1 title in three shots): Conclusion: a .550 record is not Hall worthy unless you have four or more title appearances or multiple titles. The exception being Neale and Parker. Neale was considered an innovator…Parker may have been a gambler or at least his team was considered to be a gambling team.

There are 21 retired coaches with a .500 to .549. The only one of them in the Hall is Weeb Ewbank, who won three titles. Coughlin, Flores, Vermeil and Gruden are the only ones in this group with at least one title.
Conclusion is if you are under .549 then you must have at least three titles.

SUMMARY:

Taking legacy and footprint on the game aside, basically the worse your record is, the more titles/title appearances you need to get in the Hall.

Flame Away