What would it take for McCain to win?

As I said before, if he comes out to "Where my Dogs At?" he'll have my vote.

 

Just looked at the polls again. I still think it's going to be a lot closer than these polls are indicating.

 

As previously asserted . . . BO will peak immediately following the Dem convention.
McCain will then close the gap -- but he won't get over.

 

You're absolutely right about individual state elections. That's why it's much more important to look at the state polls, which paint just how big an uphill climb McCain has.

Obama is ahead in New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa. If he wins all the John Kerry states and takes those three, he wins the election. Which Kerry states is McCain looking to pick off? Michigan is about the only one that looks possible at this point, and Obama has pulled slightly ahead there according to recent polls.

Obama is tied in Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio and barely behind in Georgia and Florida.

 

Weren't you the same one who posted that Obama had a 10-point lead in Florida?

I'm just asking...

 

I think it will be very close in popular vote, but I agree that when I look at the state breakdown it looks tough for McCain.

 

Right now my worry is that Obama picks Edwards and he delivers North Carolina.

If that happens, it's going to be nearly impossible for McCain to win.

 

It's not just that McCain has to pull even to Obama, which will be difficult given the lack of enthusiasm, money and grass roots support, McCain has surge past him. I just don't think his campaign can muster enough energy to do that.

Barring any major gaffes, why would things change? If anything, it's Obama who isn't as well known, and who has the most room to grow. The public will become more used to him and more comfortable with him as the months go along.

 

I agree with you. I also think there is the possibility that Obama is riding a surge of popularity that may wane in the coming months. I think that barring something fairly significant happening, he's going to win.

 

Obama not being well-known helps him right now, because he's seen as a charismatic guy who brings "change."

What could hurt him is that when he starts articulating his positions on issues, the public might see him as a liberal extremist in the McGovern/Mondale mold, coupled with the naievete of a freshman senator. Because when he does articulate his positions, they aren't middle-of-the-road.

That's the only chance McCain has -- the public gets scared of Obama.

 

McCain's best chance to win?

Well he has to simply hold all of Bush's states, but I'm not sure he can.

Hell yesterday Rush Limbaugh was ripping McCain a new asshole for his views on the war and the economy and on drilling ...... it seems as if the right-wing lovefest for McCain -- which lasted all of about ten minutes is over -- and that's as responsible for any "bounce" Obama has gotten as anything.....

 

You obviously weren't at the New Hampshire Town Hall meeting, where he had disagreements with two people.