Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, — C?!)

"Damn right."

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, —

No kidding:<blockquote>The computer model considered a hurricane moving northward and tracking just to the west of the city. The highest velocity winds are to the right of the eye and blow counterclockwise.

That would drive water westward along the Long Island shore until it hit the opposing Jersey shore. The Bight would become a huge funnel.

The water would then have only one place to go and it would surge through the mouth of the harbor with such volume and force as to make a curse of what had always been the city's great blessing.

Lower Manhattan would immediately be flooded, as it was back in September of 1821, when the eye of a hurricane passed over the city, just east of what would have been the most disastrous track.

If the worst case scenario were to develop in present times, one place you would definitely not want to go would be the subways or the tunnels.

"The possibility of voluminous floodwaters rapidly filling several roadway tunnels and a larger percentage of the rail tunnel network raises the specter of catastrophe," noted the 1995 study.

In the SLOSH model, a category 3 hurricane in New York could generate a surge of 24 feet at the Battery Tunnel, 21 feet at the Lincoln, 25 feet at JFK Airport, 16 feet at LaGuardia.</blockquote>http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2008/09/13/2008-09-13_geography_puts_new_york_in_danger_zone_f.html?page=0

And if you think the stock market crash hurt the economy, try having a major hurricane roll into lower Manhattan and wiping out Wall Street.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, — C?!)

I remember reading about a hurricane (was it Hazel?) that hit the city and caused all kinds of chaos in the late 50s.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, — C?!)



Bill should strengthen quite a bit over the next day or so.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, — C?!)

Hopefully Bill weakens or heads out to see. But as a Gulf Coast resident who has seen way too many of those fuckers cross Florida and create controlled chaos down here, I wasn't exactly shedding a tear when that thing headed north.
A tip to you Yankees: If it looks like Bill is heading for you, keep your car's gas tank filled and have some extra laying around. And keep a few hundred in cash on hand. All the gas stations, ATMs and bank cards in the world won't help you if the power grid is screwed.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, — C?!)

I never hit a ten, but I hit two fives one night.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (A, B, — C?!)

Hi-ho, Harbinger of Potential Doom here!

So here's the map I mentioned that StormSurge posted on his FB wall late last week ... according to the fine print at the bottom it's the result of a model run forecasting 0000 hours Zulu Aug. 26, which translates into 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time next Tuesday. You may want to right-click and show just the image for clarity.



The blood-reddish blob is — possibly — Hurricane Bill, based solely on the timing of the forecast model run. It's rolling into ... what did that thing I posted before call it? oh, yeah that's right ... the New York Bight and it stretches from southern New Jersey to a point midway through Rhode Island, and that's just the reddish-purple part. I'm not sure what that is just to the east — the remnants of Ana, perchance? Could be if she goes into the Tennessee River valley and turns toward the northeast.

So here's a major storm forecast — at least on one model run, admittedly taken last Thursday and a lot can change between then and ... ah, then — to roll into Lower Manhattan during East Coast prime-time TV hours next Tuesday.

And yeah ... that map represents something along the lines of the worst-case scenario that Daily News article mentioned.

StormSurge, I realize it seemed like a cool idea at the time ...

The forecast cone put out most recently by the National Hurricane Center has Bill west-northwest of Bermuda drawing a bead on exactly this target at 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, with the big turn to the north flattening out instead of continuing around to the northeast. The NHC is using the M icon for a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) at that point (emphasized because it doesn't run all the way 'til Tuesday). That map is showing a projected maximum central pressure (at the purple band) of 1000 millibars, or about 29.53 inches.

Dear Bill: I understand the Faeroe Islands are nice this time of year. Check 'em out. At least try.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (Ana, Bill)

I doubt that it would maintain that strength as it approached the NE. The water temp is too cold, plus the forces that propel it northward, usually have the storms moving too quickly, thus minimizing any damage.

Granted, anything can happen, but even if somehow, someway Bill happens to hit the NE, I doubt it will be as a major hurricane.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (Ana, Bill)

Of course, if it gets to be a major, major storm and THEN speeds up it could hit New York or New England full force. It would be in and out quickly, but wouldn't have time to weaken significantly. That's what happened with the 1938 hurricane that hit New England.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (Ana, Bill)

Along the lines of what Batman said: (from people a lot smarter than I)

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (Ana, Bill)

For it to hit as a major, it'd need to stay on the Gulf Stream for as long as possible and to move quickly, as in 30 mph. But 2003's Juan made landfall in Nova Scotia as a 100-mph storm after peaking at 105, so it's at least possible. Also, a big storm that reaches Cat 4-5 status can provide a major storm surge in the right circumstances even as it weakens (Ike), and the Tri-State coastal topography qualifies.

Bill, now at 100 mph, seems destined to be a major by this time tomorrow. But all the models have it recurving (the southern outlier UKMET has shifted NE towards the consensus), so that's encouraging.

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (Ana, Bill)

Here's the latest coverage from the Weather Channel ... a lot depends on where the high-pressure ridge breaks.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstories/todayinweather.html?from=hp_news1#bill0817