Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstories/todayinweather.html?from=hp_news4#tropicalatlantic0810

<blockquote>There are definite signs today that the tropical Atlantic is beginning to stir.

After a quiet June and July (and now you can include early August), we are now entering the heart of the Atlantic tropical season when we look toward the African coast or the <a href="http://www.weather.com/search/sitesearch?Keywords=cape+verde&amp;start=0&amp;num=10&amp;twx=on&amp;hl=en&amp;type=site&amp;from=searchbox_site&amp;channel=SEARCH&amp;from=TIW">Cape Verde Islands</a>; sometimes called Cape Verde season.

We are finally seeing evidence of the development of several storm systems over <a href="http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/africasatellite_large.html?from=TIW">north-central Africa</a> and push west eventually emerging into the open waters of the Atlantic.

You can see in the image above that there are 4 low pressure areas where organized thunderstorm activity has not only developed but is also persisting.

One such disturbance #1 has already emerged off the African coast while #2 is just about to emerge over the Atlantic Ocean. In fact, disturbance #1 is already being monitored closely by TWC and the National Hurricane Center.

We may have to soon turn our eyes toward disturbance #2. Some computer weather models are predicting that disturbance #2 will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane over the central Atlantic by this coming weekend.</blockquote>

Time to cue up Buffett's "Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season" ...

 

The first car on that train has already gotten the crap kicked out of it thanks to a nice pocket of Saharan dry air/dust to its north, and the thunderstorm activity has fallen accordingly. While it could still develop -- it has a nearly closed low-pressure circulation -- it's not in great shape right now and it may take a while to get its act together, if it does at all.

There's a flare-up of storms in the western Carribean that bears watching too.

Still, a very quiet start to the season that calls to mind the seasons prior to 1995, when the current boom cycle for storms began.

 

We haven't even had a named storm yet in the Atlantic. Thank Tebow El Niño for that.

The first four this year will be Ana, Bill, Claudette and Danny.

ADD: I'm surprised they haven't retired Claudette. The last one smacked the Coastal Bend area of the Texas coast pretty good. Turned out to be a Category 2 at landfall. Caught all the forecasters off guard.

 

Thank Tebow I'm about 500 miles from the Gulf, now.

I miss home, but I'm glad I don't have to worry about that shit. Whew.

 

If it's the one I'm thinking of they probably didn't retire it because it made landfall in an area where about seven people live.

 

I think they only retire names when deaths are involved.

RB

 

What happens is countries will put names of storms up for nomination at the World Meteorological Organization's annual meeting. Some committee reviews them and decides which ones are worthy of retirement. Deaths and damage are the determining factors -- Hurricane Bret hit Texas a few years ago as a Category 4, but since it hit in a sparsely-populated area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, there was little damage and few if anyone died, so it wasn't retired. By contrast, Allison, a minimal tropical storm, was retired because of all the damage it did as a rainmaker.

And that disturbance I poo-pooed yesterday has in fact become Tropical Depression 2. It's still not that impressive looking and has to fight lukewarm sea surface temperatures and dry air, but the NHC thinks it'll slowly strengthen into Ana before too long. The models aren't in unison yet, but the NHC track for now has it going north of the Leeward Islands while still pretty far to the east, which would mean a fish storm or a possible Bermuda threat. But these things do change.

 

Any explanation as to why the Pacific storm season is already in full swing? Typhoons have hit China, Japan, and caused a massive mudslide in Taiwan.

 

I am reminded way too much of 1992, when the tropical wave that became Andrew didn't roll off the African coast until Aug. 14 and begat this in South Florida ...



I don't think we're going to have a problem with Ana. At least, that's what I hope.

Second storm in that line should be Bill and should be trouble, if I'm reading the surf/swell/wave height/wind maps at Surfline, Wavewatch and Magic Seaweed right.

1stADD: Here's the Wavewatch map for the North Atlantic over the next 7 days. Select "WIND" and watch it develop.
http://www.wavewatch.com/Surf-Forecast-North-Atlantic.php

Also, here's Surfline's Hurricanetrak. The regions are clickable (opens a new window with the moving map) and you can select storms to overlay their paths and forecast tracks.
http://www.surfline.com/hurricanetrak/

 

It came ashore at Port Lavaca and caused quite a bit of damage, although I don't think it caused any loss of life.

 

Ana:



Tropical Depression 3 (to be Tropical Storm Bill possibly as soon as the next update from the NHC):



Reaction:

 

Re: Welcome to the Cape Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season (Ana! Bil

Anal Bill?

Is that what the GOP is accusing Clinton of now?