Washington Post-ABC News presidential race poll

There are no moderates in the Republic party, or anything close to it.

 

At this point, I'm lukewarm on all of the republican candidates and there are a couple I know very little about, but my worry was that Pawlenty and Romney would cancel each other out and Palin would cruise to the nomination. Bachmann's presence probably prevents that from happening.

The reason I posted the poll was because I was stunned by it. I figured nobody in the current field has a snowball's chance in hell of winning and that may wind up being the case, but if someone as uninspiring as Mittens
is doing that well right now, then maybe this will get interesting over the next year or so.

 

That's complete bullshit.

 

John McCain in 2000 was the Republican that Colin Powell, et al, said should have run in 2008. The John McCain who ran in 2008 was not the same candidate. He got caught between his previous, moderate stances and having to change his positions to fit "the base" and make concessions for the more right-wing members of the party.

We know how that turned out.

Mitt Romney already had to deal with trying to transform his moderate image once in the primary season (in 2008), and it presented major challenges. Other than running against a less-than-overwhelmingly-popular incumbent from the opposing party vs. running to replace a less-than-overwhelmingly-popular outgoing President from his party, he's going to have to change his playbook to avoid falling into the same trap again.

 

Name one with a prayer of winning the nomination.

 

Not the same thing.

 

Ford, Bush 41, Dole, and McCain were all moderates. Only Bush 41 won, and he was running for Ronnie's 3rd term.

Running on his own, he lost.

Reagan and Bush 43 both won two terms running as Conservatives.

 

43 playacted as a quasi-mod during the first campaign, but snapped back into line with Ailes' Army after the first election.

 

Well, he might have been subtle about it, but Conservatives -- including Christian Conservatives -- believed he was one of them. The thought he "spoke their language."

And, he won re-election. So, what does that tell you about running as a Conservative vs. a Moderate?

 

For him to win in '04 by the paper-thin margin by which he prevailed, given the enormous advantages of incumbency and the identity of his opponent, spoke volumes.

The public's recoil from that sustained disaster played a large part in padding BO's '08 margin.

 

But, if he had been a wishy washy moderate, the base would have abandoned him and he would have lost re-election.