Vlad Guerrero: HOF?

Interesting, I would say if you take into account the position it might swing in Larry's favour.

 

I'd buy that. I'm sure they're reasonably close. Chipper had a longer career, so he gets points for durability and demerits for "compiling."

 

Wow, you're pushing him off that far? To 2020? I can't say you're crazy because HOF voters are a weird collection, but Vlad was unique in that he had no steroid associations whatsoever. He wasn't as good as The Big Hurt, but he gets in with Chipper and Pudge, if not before. How do you check off Bagwell or Raines and not Vlad? I don't see that happening from too many voters.

 

Guerrero played in the steroid era, so at least some voters will make the same idiotic assumptions about him that they do about the others.

Bagwell and Raines will have been on the ballot a good bit longer, so that can work in their favor in this ridiculous process. Bagwell and Guerrero are fairly comparable, so I'm betting the guy with more years on the ballot gets in first.

 

Again, without looking, I'd vote for Vlad ahead of Bagwell or Raines. Admittedly, I'm not quite old enough to really appreciate Raines in his prime. I remember his days with the Yankees, but don't remember much of when he played for the Expos. I watched baseball at the time, but mostly American League, particularly the Yankees and Red Sox.

Bagwell was never feared the way Vlad was.

 

Bagwell wasn't as spectacular, but he was every bit as good, if not better. They had comparable numbers, but Bagwell wasn't a knucklehead on the basepaths like Guerrero. He was also a hell of a defensive player. I think they both get in, but Bagwell should get there first.

 

Bagwell was helped by coming up as a 3B. Also was a lot smaller in college, know someone who played with him at Hartford. He was quick and agile for a 1B because he was a natural 3b.

 

I'm just going by the voters. He should be in before that but you have to take into account how certain players are looked at and the additional PED thoughts. Outside of the "no-brainers" the last couple of years, the voters are not going to put in big classes, even with the latest voter purge. From 1992 to 2016, there have been three years with more than TWO inductees. Those years were (Ryan, Brett, Yount / Thomas, Maddux, Glavine / Biggio, Unit, Pedro, Smoltz). Unless you have a crazy good first-time group, it's a stretch to get to three. I would fully expect Vlad to get more than 40 percent of the vote in his first year. But if you were a full ballot guy from 2016 you either have only two or three slots available. I would assume for may of those voters, Pudge is going to get a spot. The two questions on Vlad's percentage is going to be -- how many will still vote for Manny and how many of the full ballots last year didn't have either Bagwell and or Raines and they get added this time.

Out of the ballots released by the BBWA, there were 12 full ballots last year that had Bagwell but not Raines. There were 5 full ballots that had Raines but not Bagwell.

 

Just looked at the numbers, which are incredibly similar, though Bagwell has the edge.
Bagwell: 1517 runs, 1529 RBI, 449 HR, .948 OPS, 79 WAR
Guerrero: 1328, 1496, 449, .931, 59 WAR

Interestingly, Guerrero got much higher MVP consideration throughout his career (though they both won one) and played in five more All-Star Games. Seems like Guerrero was widely regarded as the more fearsome hitter (eye test? ), but Bagwell was, as you said, every bit as good and probably better.

There's the unsubstantiated steroid stink around Bagwell, which is based almost entirely on the fact that he was jacked. Right or wrong, that will probably factor into Guerrero receiving more HOF consideration sooner.

 

Bagwell's career walk rate was 14.9%, Vlad's was 8.1%. That explains both Bagwell's higher career value, and the perception that Vlad was more "fearsome." Bagwell was more skilled at something that people don't notice or find exciting. In fact, just look at this thread, which is reflective of public opinion, I think: Vlad swinging at bad pitches is largely considered a positive.

Of course, there was the board member - escapes me now who it was - who argued that he doesn't consider walks as part of a hitter's value, because they are simply attributable to luck.

Also, my wife is hot.

 

Guerrero definitely will earn an uptick from voters who were simply wowed by his talent -- his power, speed, throwing arm, which were all superior -- even though as has been said he was often undisciplined in every aspect of his game. Bagwell was more consistent and had better overall numbers, but in their primes I don't think many people would have chosen Bagwell over Vladdy Daddy. And again, there are the steroid whispers. He was a pretty lithe guy coming up and got jacked right around the time a lot of big-name guys did, too, many of whom were later found to be PED users. I think they both deserve enshrinement this year, and I would have voted Bagwell in earlier.

 

I would have and, doing so, would have beaten the dumb people who chose Vlad.