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Vegas to bettors: Please quit taking the favorite and the over...

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by TigerVols, Jan 1, 2013.

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  1. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    There are some "sharps" who consistently have taken Vegas for a profit. None of us have that capability. Google Billy Walters and see if you can find anything about the computer group.

    Unlike other forms of gambling, in which set odds favor the house, if you can find inefficiencies in point spreads and lines consistently, you CAN win. It's not an easy way to try to make money, not the least because once the sportsbooks know you and your runners they are reluctant to take your money, but it has been doable for a handful of gamblers.
     
    The Big Ragu, Jan 2, 2013
    #37
  2. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    I've posted about my gambling habits -- it's always fun to compare with Sonner -- and I'd like to think I was pretty good 2 years ago even though I got killed. Every time I posted about the parlays I was doing, people here would say I should have done game by game. But the odds were too good not to go for the payoff.

    All season I was hitting the first 5 of a 6-teamer only to lose the 6th game on flukey bullshit. I hit a few 6-teamers for a thousand at a time, but I probably lost 10 6-teamers on the final game -- it was maddening.

    One case in 2011: I win the first 5 through the nooners, 4 o'clock, a 7 o'clock games and then figure I'll clean up once Stanford (with Luck) beats the crap out of an awful Cal team. I put $50 at 40/1 odds, so I was already counting the $2,000. There was absolutely no reason Stanford shouldn't have won that game by 28 to 35 points -- but it ends up Stanford 31-28. Devastated me. Happened so many times.

    Betting college football is devastatingly addicting. The NFL is too hard. I stopped doing the spread and just stuck with over/under, and even then I blew chunks.
     
    Songbird, Jan 2, 2013
    #38
  3. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    60 Minutes did a profile on him. I couldn't remember his name, but was planning on googling him when I got home (which I just did).

    I'd be curious to know more about his operation.

    I think winning on sports betting scan probably be done, but to do it over time -- and to overcome the big -- it would take a very sophisticated operation.
     
    YankeeFan, Jan 2, 2013
    #39
  4. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I know a bit about him. ... and some other gamblers who supposedly have been successful.

    When he first got started, the line makers weren't as sophisticated as they are now, so the lines they'd throw out there were ripe for being exploited.

    Now it is MUCH harder than it was, but he has a variety of methods. One trick he uses is to take a line that is close to where he would feel really comfortable with it and move it. He will go in and bet a million dollars on a game and then when the line moves to where he wants it based on the money he threw in there, bet three million the other way. He also still finds inefficient lines. He supposedly employs all kinds of people from meteorologists to computer programmers to guys getting info from inside college programs. He has runners that place bets for him in relatively small increments to try to hide what he is up to. I also wouldn't be totally surprised (although I have no proof and I wouldn't have the guts to say it to his face) that he knows how to fix games. He's a hustler underneath it all. But a really smart one who has figured out how to tilt the odds in sports betting to his favor.
     
    The Big Ragu, Jan 2, 2013
    #40
  5. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    Payout of 40-1 on something that's 64-1 to happen is just shameful --- and why Vegas cannot lose.
     
    BTExpress, Jan 2, 2013
    #41
  6. Nathan Scott Phillips

    Nathan Scott Phillips Member

    That paper is shit. I bet within two years Gannett replaces it with a regionalized version of USA Today.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
    Nathan Scott Phillips, Jan 3, 2013
    #42
  7. turski7

    turski7 Member

    The guy is connected and shady as fuck for sure. I used to work at a country club he owned in Vegas and countless stories of his mob buddies and nefarious past floated through the clubhouse. He's a real prick to boot.
    The 60 minutes piece made him out to be like he was from MIT and just a friendly face around town. That really pissed me off. Most people in Vegas can't stand that guy.
     
    turski7, Jan 3, 2013
    #43
  8. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Oh god no. He is not an MIT type. But he is smart enough to use MIT types if he can figure out how to use them to create a surefire thing for himself. He's kind of harmless looking, but as I said, I wouldn't have the guts to tell him he's shady. I didn't want to say he's mobbed up, and I don't know if that is true. I just know he seems like the kind of guy you don't want to get into bed with.

    He may be the prick you said, but it's hard not to have a begrudging respect for him. The Feds have tried to go after him multiple times, and he has had his tracks covered well enough to be able to thumb his nose at them and get out from under the indictments.
     
    The Big Ragu, Jan 4, 2013
    #44
  9. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Ashton Kutcher was placing Billy Walters' bets?

     
    YankeeFan, Feb 16, 2013
    #45
  10. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    But Kutcher's story checks out in Vegas.

    The 35-year-old actor told Esquire he spent half of a college football season placing bets for a syndicate. Kutcher came off as knowledgeable about sports betting in the interview, describing how the syndicate pinpointed statistical anomalies and took advantage of point-spread movement.

    "We were clearing, like, $750,000 in four weeks of college football. It was pretty fun. Then they caught on," Kutcher said in the Esquire article. "The hypothesis had been that the house would just assume that I was a dumb actor with a lot of money who liked football."

    A former Las Vegas sports book manager told The Linemakers on Sporting News that he was very familiar with Kutcher's sports betting in the early 2000s, the same time frame chronicled by author Michael Konik in "The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies out of Millions."

    "They thought they had a sucker on the hook, then he won $800,000 in four weeks," said the ex-bookie, who asked to remain anonymous. "They had to shut him down."

    Many believe Kutcher is one of the characters in Konik's highly-acclaimed book that details the author's time working for Rick "Big Daddy" Matthews, a gambler described as, "the world's smartest sports bettor and the mastermind behind the Brain Trust, a shadowy group of gamblers known for their expertise in beating the Vegas line."

    It's widely believed, but never publicly acknowledged, that "Big Daddy" Matthews is Walters, a reclusive Las Vegas businessman with a reported net worth in the hundreds of millions.

    "My book 'The Smart Money' is a non-fiction memoir that includes an explanatory note about honoring privacy," Konik wrote in an email to The Linemakers. "I have no further comment."

    http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2013-02-15/ashton-kutcher-sports-betting-esquire-las-vegas-syndicate
     
    YankeeFan, Feb 16, 2013
    #46
  11. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    Thanks YF. That was a kickass read.
     
    dixiehack, Feb 16, 2013
    #47
  12. jackfinarelli

    jackfinarelli Well-Known Member

    Every week of the college football season there are at least a dozen games on the board with spreads of 17 or more points and Totals Lines for college football can go into the high 70s and low 80s. Vegas does a lot of business on college games despite those lines.
     
    jackfinarelli, Feb 16, 2013
    #48
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