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Vegas to bettors: Please quit taking the favorite and the over...

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by TigerVols, Jan 1, 2013.

  1. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    ...cause you're killing us!

    (Things got so bad for MGM in week 9, they had to go to the emergency ATM to cover their losses).

  2. spikechiquet

    spikechiquet Well-Known Member

    Oh...poor babies. Maybe the government should bail them out! LOL
  3. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    That's a fantastic story. I follow this stuff a lot, and I remember week 9.

    The common thinking has always been that Vegas builds casinos based on bettors taking the favorites (square bettors) but it has come back and bitten them in the ass. Last year, as well.

    A prime example is the Indy Colts. Sharp bettors say every week how the metrics don't favor the Colts, they are 18th in total points scored, 12th in total points allowed, they were outscored by 30 points for the year.; Andrew Luck's stats are mediocre, etc.

    The squares see a hot rookie qb, a comeback team, and have bet them most every week.

    The Colts are 11-5 vs the spread for the season, and 9-2 ATS their last 11 games.

  4. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    I don't buy the bs at the end of the story about Vegas sweating the Super Bowl future odds of, say, 75-1 on the Seahawks. I'd like to see the accounting.

    The vig on those Super Bowl futures is beyond fat. If they are losing at 75-1 on the Seahawks, they are making it up elsewhere.

    All these vegas stories say that people bet NE, the Packers, etc. week after week. Those same people bet Super Bowl future bets, and if they Seahawks are winning at 75-1, a bunch of other bets are losers for the public and winners for the book.
  5. heyabbott

    heyabbott Well-Known Member

    Vegas doesn't need the government, they've got Roger Goodell.
  6. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Great story. Vegas should order a hit on Belichick. Ever since he started running it up in 2007, the league has been trending toward it, and now teams don't stop when they're up big in the fourth quarter. The number of garbage time touchdowns and big scores this year has been amazing. Nobody hands it off with the second string anymore when it's a 17- or 24-point game.
  7. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    Or they could, you know, set better numbers.
  8. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Obviously. Duh.

    But I don't think they're going to get the same kind of business if they start posting lines at 17 or more and O/Us in the low 60s.
  9. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    The volume of business they're getting now will leave some middle managers stuffed in trunks. Besides, what's killing them are the donks from Cedar Rapids who are in town for the weekend and will bet on Trendy Favorite Team come hell or high water. If they can't redo the lines, they may as well subsidize free flights from Kansas City and Buffalo in hopes of evening out things.
  10. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    I never bet on sports, and I barely pay any attention to the NFL, but this kind of thing fascinates me.

    I had no idea about the Pats record vs. the spread over the last several years.
  11. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Yeah, but it sounds like what's killing them is the parlays. Too many favorites/overs.

    If they adjust the spread on individual games, they'll get picked off on those. They need near even money on each side of the individual games. They can't control for multiple bets as easily.
  12. podunk press

    podunk press Active Member

    I almost paid for my Vegas vacation with my sports betting the last time I was in Vegas. If you know what you're talking about, it's like stealing.
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