UPDATE: Cabrera over Trout for A.L. MVP

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

Passan's column was dopey: Trout may have been marginally better than Cabrera, not "eons better."

Generally sabermetrics has established that defense and baserunning don't mean shit, or guys would still be trying to steal 100 bases a season, and guys like Cabrera and Fielder would be benched for defensive non-performance.

And if defense and baserunning meant anything, the Tigers, by far the worst team in MLB in both categories, would have lost 100 games, not gone to the World Series.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

It is interesting that the statistics crowd used to state that base stealing was overrated, and now it's an integral part of Trout's value as a player. Not a knock, just an indication of how analysis changes the more of it gets done. I'd be stunned if Cabrera doesn't win it. The "winning team" idea, silly as it is, carries power with voters.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

Worth noting, of course, that the Angels had a better record than Detroit.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

* More stolen bases.
* Played a harder position and played it better.
* You want to use old-school analysis? Fine. Cabrera led the league in RBI's. Trout led it in runs scored. That's a wash.
* I've acknowledged the playoff team argument. But what happened once they got there is irrelevant here.
* Cabrera won the batting title by .004 over Trout. Trout won the OBP title by .006. Another wash.
* Trout had eight triples. Cabrera had none.
* Cabrera grounded into 28 double plays to lead the American League. Trout grounded into seven.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

I think the storyline was that basestealing is overrated when you steal at a 67% or less clip. As the Silver story mentioned, Trout was 49 for 54.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

Stolen bases were overrated. That doesn't mean they have no value, particularly when someone steals at a 90 percent rate, like Trout does.

Some of you are taking a very nuanced stance - that stolen bases and defense are not worth as much as the market used to pay them - and turning it into, "Stolen bases and defense aren't worth anything."

Starman, for example, says that stolen bases and defense aren't worth anything, because the Tigers won the A.L. Central without performing well at, either.

Well, the Giants didn't hit home runs.

Are home runs not worth anything, then?

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

Stolen bases lost cachet because of the steroid era. There is still value in the base-stealing threat as far as throwing the pitcher off

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

Overall SB% in MLB is in the high 70s, so obviously the consensus of managers is that stealing at a 2/3 rate is not a profitable strategy.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

There's more than one way to win, that's all. Trout excelled at more categories which contribute to winning than did Cabrera, but Cabrera was more dominant in the most important category for a position player -- batting. That's why it's a good argument.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

Cabrera had 13 more doubles, so that should offset the triples comment.

Don't agree that CF is a more difficult position to play than 3B either.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...



An "eon" is still a measure of time, is it not?

Weird usage in the Passan column.

 

Re: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com ...

But his margin of dominance compared to Trout's dominance enough to make up for what he gives back in stolen bases and defense? I don't think it does. Batting average was close. RBI's don't matter* (though extra-base power, which RBI's are a large function of, does, and Cabrera has the advantage). Trout edged him in OBP.

* I guess one could make the argument that a player's value can be increased by where his manager chooses to bat him in a lineup, and that it can also be increased due to having good players batting ahead of him. My first impulse: Those arguments aren't crazy.