1. Welcome to SportsJournalists.com, a friendly forum for discussing all things sports and journalism.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register for a free account to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Access to private conversations with other members.
    • Fewer ads.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

Unemployment up to 9.2 percent. Ugly economic news.

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by The Big Ragu, Jul 8, 2011.

  1. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    There is no fundamental reason for the economy to be doing well at the moment, and I, for one, am happy to see traders getting it in the shorts.

    9.2 percent unemployment means that 10 percent of the consumer economy has been slashed, as the unemployed are not buying new cars, houses, vacations. The fact that Wall Street has been exploding despite this fundamental fact staring them in the face is disgusting.

    Republicans like to talk about killing government by starving the beast. The oligarchs and their Wall Street henchmen better be careful because they are killing the country by starving the economic beast.
  2. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member

    So Wall Street thrives, but none of that wealth "trickles down" into job creation. Huh.
  3. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    The good news is West Texas Intermediate is down almost $2 to about $97. Oil was starting to uptick, and gas went up almost 20 cents a gallon this week.
  4. Mizzougrad96

    Mizzougrad96 Active Member

    I thought electing Black Jesus was going to take care of this. :D
  5. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    I can see one reason why there is a difference in the ADP private jobs report and the overall jobs numbers -- state and local governments (including schools) are cutting jobs. Despite what some may think, they count as employees, too.
  6. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    They work with this short-sighted idea that if they devalue the dollar they can inflate away the debt our politicians have already run up (and therefore decrease the debt load by making the dollar worth less). They also believe that a cheaper dollar will stimulate exports, despite the fact that we are an importer nation, not an exporter.

    It hasn't worked that way, though, and they have devalued the dollar to ridiculously low levels.

    What we have gotten hit with is higher prices, as a result. Imported goods -- and we are a nation that imports -- go up.

    We have a thread about the price of gas, for example. A devalued dollar does two things. When the dollar is worth less, the price of oil goes up. Then all the goods that are dependent on oil to get here go up in price, as well.

    Those higher prices have been more of a drain on our economy than any benefits. Higher prices have been a drain on our economy, and the uncertainty has small employers not hiring new people, apparently.

    I wish people would see how detrimental all their fiscal and monetary "tinkering" has been. If they let the economy recover on its own, without them making short-term, politically motivated decisions that keep extending this heartache, we could get through this much quicker. Just stand aside already. We might have been in a recovery already without a second dip. Inflation hasn't been as bad as I thought it might get -- although prices of everything are up. Add QE3 and all bets are off. I don't see how we can shit all over the dollar any worse. If not for the problems in Europe, we'd be in deep shit with our currency.

    I don't think they will do it hastily at this point. This is just one number on one day. They are not signalling a QE3 yet. But the chance of it went up this morning. If we start seeing relatively strong earnings, the stock market will continue to rally and they should lay off and see what happens. At least that is what I am hoping.
  7. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    Haven't you gotten the memo? Government employees and union workers don't spend their money elsewhere in the economy.
  8. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    That's what can making trading -- and especially exiting trades -- so difficult.

    If you've got a stop order in, and you get stopped out in an over reaction to news, you want to kill yourself.

    If you don't have a stop order in, and you assume the market is over reacting to news and hold off on getting out of the trade, you can really get screwed if the market keeps going against you instead of bouncing back.

    Sometimes it's just easier to exit a trade before news. Though, you don't always know when news will break or when a report will really move a market.

    All I can say is it's a tough business.
  9. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    I'm a bit amused by the "unexpected" tag applied to the unemployment numbers. If traders are trading on the strength of the economy and using unemployment as a proxy, seems to me these numbers weren't so unexpected (i.e., at least half the traders were on the other side).
  10. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    That aid kept those people employed. Now that it's spent, they're becoming unemployed. If it hadn't been spent, they'd have already been unemployed for a year or more, and so would some of the people who made the goods and services those public employees spent their share of the money on.
    It is very clear that within the next few months, or even days, a large chunk of government economic activity will be eliminated. Things will then get worse, employment wise.
  11. Bamadog

    Bamadog Well-Known Member

    It was stimulative for Mexican cartels.
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Of course they were unexpected.

    The Dow and S&P had been trading up on good economic news--mostly producer and manufacturing numbers this week, which beat expectations and would have been a signal of increased economic activity. Bond yields had risen quite a bit.

    The markets (speaking in the aggregate) had expectations for this number. They expected the economy to gain about 100,000 to 125,000 jobs. The number didn't just miss. It was a disaster. We gained 18,000 jobs.

    The Dow and the S&P sold off as a result and bond yields dropped.

    There are two sides to every trade, as you pointed out. But few people who were short treasuries going into today, for example, were expecting news THIS bad. You would have had to have been Carmac (sp?), or had inside info.
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page